NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ORL

DAL

21-41

114115

ORL

33-28

NBAThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesORL leads series 1-0VegasORL -7.5

DAL · top performer

Klay Thompson

G · #31

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Tristan da Silva

F · #23

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 62pp · 4th Quarter · 1.4

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	32	19	7-15	1-3	4-5	-1	2	7
D. GaffordF · #21	25	12	5-6	—	2-4	+6	13	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	33	18	4-7	3-4	7-9	-3	5	1
C. FlaggF · #32	26	18	7-22	1-4	3-3	-4	5	6
M. ChristieG · #00	28	6	2-6	2-6	—	-12	3	3
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	20	2	1-1	—	—	-5	4	0
C. MartinF · #16	11	3	1-2	0-1	1-2	+3	2	0
N. MarshallF · #13	25	6	2-10	0-2	2-2	-6	4	5
K. ThompsonG · #31	26	24	7-12	7-12	3-3	+13	4	1
R. NembhardG · #9	14	6	3-5	—	—	+4	2	4
Team		114	39-86	14-32	22-28		44	28
DNP: B. Williams, A. Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	36	16	7-17	1-6	1-2	0	12	6
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	24	15	5-6	1-1	4-4	+8	7	1
D. BaneG · #3	38	14	5-13	1-3	3-3	-8	8	3
J. SuggsG · #4	31	17	6-14	4-11	1-1	+9	2	7
A. BlackG · #0	24	8	3-12	0-3	2-2	+2	3	3
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	12	6	2-8	0-1	2-2	-10	2	2
T. da SilvaF · #23	25	19	7-7	4-4	1-1	+3	3	3
N. PendaF · #93	20	4	2-7	0-3	—	0	4	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	12	8	4-4	—	0-1	+3	4	2
J. CarterG · #2	19	8	3-9	2-7	—	-2	2	4
Team		115	44-97	13-39	14-16		47	31
DNP: C. Castleton, A. Morales, J. Howard, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

39-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-97

FG %

14-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-39

22-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-16

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL leads series 1-0

Mar 6

DAL114@

ORL115today

Apr 4

ORL138@

DAL127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+26028%

ORL-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -7.5↗SpreadBet ORL -7.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat DAL 115-114. T. da Silva led with 19 PTS, 3 REB, 3 AST. Wendell Carter Jr.'s play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (62pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

41 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 37

ORLstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 32 REB · 20 AST

GS 58

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL3rd Quarter · 6:55 · 70-68

+31pp→ 52% WP

Khris Middleton · loose ball foul

DAL4th Quarter · 51.2 · 111-110

+23pp→ 62% WP

Paolo Banchero · misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot

ORL4th Quarter · 1.4 · 114-115

+62pp→ 94% WP

Wendell Carter Jr. · makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	33	29	26	26	114
ORL	26	34	31	24	115

Period scoring

DAL won 2 · ORL won 2

Christie 6

Jr. 6

Washington 8

Tristan 9

Thompson 9

Tristan 19

Middleton 10

Tristan 5

DAL

ORL

Shooting comparison

DAL

ORL

45%

39-86

45%

44-97

44%

14-32

3PT

33%

13-39

79%

22-28

88%

14-16

Play-by-play · 496 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 114·ORL 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
DAL 114·ORL 115
+6pp
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
DAL 114·ORL 115
Q4·1.4
Max Christie enters the game for Daniel Gafford
·
DAL 114·ORL 115
Q4·1.4
Mavericks Full timeout
DAL 114·ORL 115
Q4·1.4
Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
DAL 114·ORL 115
+62pp
Q4·6.8
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 114·ORL 113
−5pp
Q4·8.7
Cooper Flagg misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 114·ORL 113
+3pp
Q4·32.2
Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
DAL 114·ORL 113
+17pp
Q4·37.3
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Goga Bitadze
·
DAL 114·ORL 110
Q4·37.3
Magic Full timeout
DAL 114·ORL 110
Q4·37.3
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
DAL 114·ORL 110
+6pp
Q4·37.3
Goga Bitadze enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
DAL 113·ORL 110
Q4·37.3
Wendell Carter Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 113·ORL 110
−13pp
Q4·37.3
Cooper Flagg makes driving layup (Khris Middleton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 113·ORL 110
−10pp
Q4·46.6
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
DAL 111·ORL 110
−3pp
Q4·46.6
Cooper Flagg blocks Wendell Carter Jr. 's 2-foot layupBIG MOMENT
· ·
DAL 111·ORL 110
−9pp
Q4·49.1
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
DAL 111·ORL 110
+9pp
Q4·51.2
Paolo Banchero misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
DAL 111·ORL 110
−23pp
Q4·1:02
P.J. Washington personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 111·ORL 110
+16pp
Q4·1:12
Daniel Gafford makes 5-foot two point shot (Klay Thompson assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 111·ORL 110
−9pp
Q4·1:30
Tristan da Silva makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Paolo Banchero assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 109·ORL 110
+8pp
Q4·1:43
Khris Middleton makes 12-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 109·ORL 108
−9pp
Q4·2:00
Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 107·ORL 108
+18pp
Q4·2:12
Khris Middleton makes 12-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 107·ORL 105
−9pp
Q4·2:27
Mavericks defensive team rebound
DAL 105·ORL 105
−2pp
Q4·2:27
Paolo Banchero misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DAL 105·ORL 105
−10pp
Q4·2:40
Klay Thompson personal foul
DAL 105·ORL 105
+3pp
Q4·2:57
Klay Thompson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DAL 105·ORL 105
−15pp
Q4·3:15
Klay Thompson enters the game for Caleb Martin
·
DAL 102·ORL 105

Betting line

ORL -7.5·O/U 230.5·DAL +260/ORL -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Dallas Mavericks, 115–114. It came down to the final possession.

DAL +7.5 cashed (ORL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 230.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

ORL

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.2

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR