POR
30-33
MEM
23-38
POR · top performer
Jrue Holiday
G · #5
35
Pts
5
Reb
11
Ast
MEM · top performer
Jaylen Wells
F · #0
24
Pts
3
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 31pp · 4th Quarter · 1:01
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at Memphis Grizzlies · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 30 | 11-19 | 3-8 | 5-9 | +12 | 9 | 4 | |
| 40 | 9 | 4-12 | 0-7 | 1-2 | +8 | 7 | 3 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | -5 | 9 | 1 | |
| 32 | 35 | 13-19 | 8-11 | 1-1 | +10 | 5 | 11 | |
| 24 | 8 | 3-11 | 1-6 | 1-2 | +2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 20 | 9-12 | — | 2-2 | +5 | 11 | 0 | |
| 13 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | — | +2 | 3 | 1 | |
| 21 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-4 | — | +6 | 6 | 3 | |
| 16 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-2 | — | -5 | 0 | 2 | |
| 22 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | — | +5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 122 | 48-95 | 15-43 | 11-18 | 53 | 29 | ||
| DNP: K. Murray, D. Avdija, D. Lillard, C. Youngblood, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 17 | 5-13 | 2-5 | 5-10 | -11 | 9 | 1 | |
| 34 | 20 | 8-18 | 1-2 | 3-4 | -9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 31 | 24 | 8-15 | 4-8 | 4-5 | -14 | 3 | 2 | |
| 33 | 11 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 2-3 | +3 | 7 | 5 | |
| 32 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 28 | 12 | 4-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | -2 | 7 | 7 | |
| 21 | 13 | 5-8 | 3-4 | — | -5 | 1 | 1 | |
| 27 | 12 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 6-7 | -2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Team | 114 | 39-87 | 14-32 | 22-33 | 38 | 25 | ||
| DNP: B. Clarke, C. Coward, T. Jerome, S. Pippen Jr. | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
45
29
Ast
25
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
MEM
Home
48-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
39-87
51
FG %
45
15-43
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-32
11-18
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-33
29
Assists
25
16
Turnovers
17
Season series
POR wins series 3-1
POR96@MEM119MEM115@POR135MEM115@POR122POR122@MEM114todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -9.5
Half-pt below key 10
Total
231.5
Standard · +5.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR-39580%MEM+31024%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
9.5
0.0 since open
Total
231.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
POR beat MEM 122-114. J. Holiday led the way with 35 points and 11 assists. Jaylen Wells's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MEM vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
89 PTS · 31 REB · 22 AST
GS 75
Bench(5)
33 PTS · 22 REB · 7 AST
GS 34
MEMstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
77 PTS · 28 REB · 9 AST
GS 55
Bench(3)
37 PTS · 10 REB · 16 AST
GS 34
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactOlivier-Maxence Prosper · makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2
Javon Small · makes free throw 1 of 1
Jaylen Wells · makes free throw 2 of 2
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 32 | 27 | 34 | 29 | 122 |
| MEM | 28 | 31 | 30 | 25 | 114 |
Period scoring
POR won 3 · MEM won 1
Q1
Grant 8
Spencer 9
Q2
Holiday 8
Prosper 8
Q3
Grant 16
Jr. 58
Q4
Holiday 16
Wells 26
Shooting comparison
51%
48-95
FG
45%
39-87
35%
15-43
3PT
44%
14-32
61%
11-18
FT
67%
22-33
Play-by-play · 505 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 122·MEM 114
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 122·MEM 114
- Q4·1.4
Jerami Grant defensive rebound
POR 122·MEM 114
- Q4·5.1
GG Jackson misses 30-foot three point jumper
POR 122·MEM 114
- Q4·10.3
Jerami Grant bad pass turnover (Jaylen Wells steals)
·
POR 122·MEM 114
- Q4·12.9
GG Jackson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 122·MEM 114
- Q4·25.7
Jrue Holiday makes 6-foot floating jump shot (Toumani Camara assists)
·
POR 122·MEM 111
- Q4·37.1
Vit Krejci offensive rebound
POR 120·MEM 111
- Q4·41.5
Scoot Henderson misses 24-foot three point jumper
POR 120·MEM 111
- Q4·1:01
Vit Krejci enters the game for Sidy Cissoko
·
POR 120·MEM 111
- Q4·1:01
Scoot Henderson enters the game for Robert Williams III
·
POR 120·MEM 111
- Q4·1:01
Trail Blazers Full timeout
POR 120·MEM 111
- Q4·1:01
Jaylen Wells makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
POR 120·MEM 111
−31pp
- Q4·1:01
Cam Spencer enters the game for Rayan Rupert
·
POR 120·MEM 110
- Q4·1:01
Jaylen Wells makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 120·MEM 110
- Q4·1:01
Toumani Camara shooting foul
POR 120·MEM 109
+0.7pp
- Q4·1:05
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
POR 120·MEM 109
- Q4·1:09
Jerami Grant misses 9-foot two point shot
POR 120·MEM 109
- Q4·1:27
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
POR 120·MEM 109
- Q4·1:32
Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 27-foot three point jumper
POR 120·MEM 109
- Q4·1:40
Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 120·MEM 109
−2pp
- Q4·2:06
GG Jackson makes 4-foot two point shot
POR 117·MEM 109
+0.8pp
- Q4·2:15
Jrue Holiday makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
POR 117·MEM 107
−2pp
- Q4·2:37
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 2 of 2
POR 115·MEM 107
−2pp
- Q4·2:37
Jaylen Wells enters the game for Cam Spencer
·
POR 115·MEM 106
- Q4·2:37
Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 115·MEM 106
+2pp
- Q4·2:37
Jerami Grant shooting foul
POR 115·MEM 105
+1pp
- Q4·2:37
Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound
POR 115·MEM 105
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:38
GG Jackson misses two point shot
POR 115·MEM 105
−0.9pp
- Q4·2:51
Robert Williams III makes tip shot
POR 115·MEM 105
−1pp
Betting line
POR -9.5·O/U 231.5·POR -395/MEM +310
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 122–114.
MEM +9.5 cashed (POR won by 8). Total cleared the 231.5 OVER by 4.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Robert Williams IIIPOR · CTS%72.299- Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · FTS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · GDEFL393
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MEM vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
165
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Ja MorantPOR19.6± 8.8high
- Damian LillardPOR19.2± 8.2high
Rebounds
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR7.4± 1.6high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- Deni AvdijaPOR6.3± 3.2high
- Jrue HolidayPOR6.3± 3.0high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Robert Williams IIIPOR1.1± 0.9high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
MEM
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.3%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶45.6%
114.6
PPG
114.9
114.7
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶27.8
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.6