DEN
38-24
UTAH
18-43
DEN · top performer
Jamal Murray
G · #27
45
Pts
2
Reb
8
Ast
UTAH · top performer
Keyonte George
G · #3
36
Pts
2
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 41pp · 4th Quarter · 31.8
NBA · Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 17 | 13 | 4-6 | — | 5-5 | +10 | 6 | 1 | |
| 36 | 22 | 6-11 | — | 10-11 | +2 | 12 | 5 | |
| 38 | 45 | 13-19 | 8-13 | 11-12 | 0 | 2 | 8 | |
| 32 | 11 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 2-3 | +3 | 6 | 4 | |
| 29 | 15 | 5-11 | 3-9 | 2-2 | -4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 6 | 3 | 1-1 | 1-1 | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 32 | 7 | 3-11 | 1-8 | — | +5 | 6 | 1 | |
| 32 | 4 | 2-5 | 0-2 | — | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| 19 | 8 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 128 | 40-74 | 16-39 | 32-35 | 38 | 25 | ||
| DNP: D. Holmes II, S. Jones, K. Simpson | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 19 | 5-8 | 1-3 | 8-9 | +1 | 8 | 6 | |
| 11 | 3 | 1-1 | — | 1-2 | -10 | 1 | 1 | |
| 27 | 2 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | -4 | 0 | 3 | |
| 30 | 36 | 14-22 | 4-9 | 4-5 | -4 | 2 | 2 | |
| 32 | 18 | 6-14 | 2-5 | 4-4 | -5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 23 | 8 | 2-10 | 2-7 | 2-2 | +1 | 3 | 2 | |
| 18 | 8 | 4-5 | — | — | -2 | 8 | 1 | |
| 26 | 15 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 1-2 | +5 | 3 | 2 | |
| 23 | 6 | 2-3 | 2-3 | — | -2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 20 | 10 | 5-8 | — | — | +5 | 2 | 6 | |
| Team | 125 | 44-86 | 15-39 | 22-26 | 33 | 24 | ||
| DNP: B. Hinson, M. Bamba | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
54
FG %
51
25
Ast
24
Team stats
DEN
Away
Stat
UTAH
Home
40-74
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
44-86
54
FG %
51
16-39
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-39
32-35
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
22-26
25
Assists
24
15
Turnovers
9
Season series
DEN leads series 2-0
UTAH112@DEN135DEN128@UTAH125todayUTAH129@DEN135DEN130@UTAH117Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
DEN -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
242.5
High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DEN-57585%UTAH+42519%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
242.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
DEN beat UTAH 128-125. J. Murray led the way with 45 points and 8 assists. DEN outscored the other side 34-26 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
UTAH vs DEN
Starters vs bench
production by unitDENstarters 83% of ptsStarters(5)
106 PTS · 27 REB · 19 AST
GS 91
Bench(4)
22 PTS · 11 REB · 6 AST
GS 15
UTAHstarters 62% of ptsStarters(5)
78 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST
GS 63
Bench(5)
47 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 41
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBruce Brown · shooting foul
Kyle Filipowski · loose ball foul
Jazz de · lay of game violation
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 33 | 33 | 34 | 28 | 128 |
| UTAH | 34 | 33 | 26 | 32 | 125 |
Period scoring
DEN won 1 · UTAH won 2
Q1
Murray 11
Bailey 7
Q2
Strawther 8
George 9
Q3
Murray 18
Filipowski 10
Q4
Murray 10
George 15
Shooting comparison
54%
40-74
FG
51%
44-86
41%
16-39
3PT
38%
15-39
91%
32-35
FT
85%
22-26
Play-by-play · 456 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 128·UTAH 125
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 128·UTAH 125
−1pp
- Q4·1.6
John Konchar enters the game for Kyle Filipowski
·
DEN 128·UTAH 125
- Q4·1.6
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 128·UTAH 125
- Q4·1.6
Nikola Jokic enters the game for Zeke Nnaji
·
DEN 128·UTAH 125
- Q4·1.6
Nuggets defensive team rebound
DEN 128·UTAH 125
−3pp
- Q4·4.7
Keyonte George misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DEN 128·UTAH 125
−5pp
- Q4·6.1
Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for John Konchar
·
DEN 128·UTAH 125
- Q4·6.1
Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Cody Williams
·
DEN 128·UTAH 125
- Q4·6.1
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
DEN 128·UTAH 125
- Q4·6.1
Jazz Full timeout
DEN 128·UTAH 125
- Q4·6.1
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 128·UTAH 125
+4pp
- Q4·6.1
Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 127·UTAH 125
−1pp
- Q4·6.1
Kyle Filipowski enters the game for Elijah Harkless
·
DEN 126·UTAH 125
- Q4·6.1
Elijah Harkless personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 126·UTAH 125
−21pp
- Q4·16.3
John Konchar enters the game for Svi Mykhailiuk
·
DEN 126·UTAH 125
- Q4·16.3
Cody Williams enters the game for Kyle Filipowski
·
DEN 126·UTAH 125
- Q4·16.3
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 126·UTAH 125
- Q4·16.3
Nuggets defensive team rebound
DEN 126·UTAH 125
−4pp
- Q4·16.3
Nikola Jokic blocks Keyonte George 's 4-foot driving layup
·
DEN 126·UTAH 125
+4pp
- Q4·16.3
(00:16.3) [Nuggets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Nuggets] retain their timeoutBIG MOMENT
DEN 126·UTAH 125
−33pp
- Q4·16.3
Nuggets Coach's ChallengeBIG MOMENT
DEN 126·UTAH 125
+19pp
- Q4·30.3
Jazz Full timeout
DEN 126·UTAH 125
- Q4·30.3
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
DEN 126·UTAH 125
- Q4·31.8
Jazz delay of game violationBIG MOMENT
DEN 126·UTAH 125
+41pp
- Q4·31.8
Nikola Jokic misses free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
DEN 126·UTAH 125
+26pp
- Q4·31.8
Kyle Filipowski loose ball foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 126·UTAH 125
−26pp
- Q4·31.8
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DEN 126·UTAH 125
+10pp
- Q4·31.8
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 125·UTAH 125
−3pp
- Q4·31.8
Elijah Harkless shooting foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 124·UTAH 125
−14pp
Betting line
DEN -11.5·O/U 242.5·DEN -575/UTAH +425
Recap · NBA
enver Nuggets went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 128–125. Decided by 3.
UTAH +11.5 cashed (DEN won by 3). Total cleared the 242.5 OVER by 10.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Nikola JokicDEN · CTOUCHES12399+- Jamal MurrayDEN · GTOUCHES82.297
- Keyonte GeorgeUTAH · GTOUCHES78.797
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · CUSG%26.790
Elijah HarklessUTAH · GDEFL2.688
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DEN favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
UTAH vs DEN.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Nikola JokicDEN26.6± 7.0high
- Jamal MurrayDEN24.2± 8.1high
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
Rebounds
- Nikola JokicDEN12.5± 3.1high
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Walker KesslerUTAH10.7± 2.2low
Assists
- Nikola JokicDEN9.7± 4.5high
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Kennedy ChandlerUTAH6.5± 2.2medium
Blocks
- Walker KesslerUTAH1.8± 2.5low
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
- Nikola JokicDEN1.0± 1.0high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
- Elijah HarklessUTAH1.5± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DEN
league avg
UTAH
57.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
53.6%
49.2%
FG%
47.0
46.7%
121.1
PPG
114.9
117.6
28.7
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.6
12.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
15.0