NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+14DET

DET

45-14

10692

ORL

31-28

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriesDET leads series 2-1VegasDET -5.5

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Tristan da Silva

F · #23

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 9pp · 4th Quarter · 10:12

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	33	23	10-18	1-4	2-2	+6	7	1
D. RobinsonF · #55	25	0	0-4	0-4	—	+9	3	2
J. DurenC · #0	34	16	6-12	—	4-6	+16	10	1
C. CunninghamG · #2	37	29	11-25	2-9	5-6	+14	6	11
A. ThompsonG · #9	21	9	4-5	—	1-2	+10	11	3
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	14	5	1-1	—	3-4	-2	6	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	26	11	4-9	0-4	3-4	+8	3	2
J. GreenG · #31	18	3	1-3	1-3	—	+3	8	1
C. LeVertG · #8	20	8	4-10	0-4	—	+4	2	3
D. JenkinsG · #24	11	2	1-6	0-2	—	+2	0	0
Team		106	42-93	4-30	18-24		56	24
DNP: T. Smith, I. Stewart, K. Huerter, M. Sasser

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	38	24	5-10	1-4	13-16	-25	11	2
T. da SilvaF · #23	37	19	8-13	3-6	—	-8	6	2
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	33	4	2-6	0-2	—	-18	9	2
D. BaneG · #3	38	17	5-14	1-3	6-7	-14	4	7
J. SuggsG · #4	26	14	4-17	4-13	2-2	+2	3	4
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	13	9	3-6	1-3	2-3	+5	3	0
J. IsaacF · #1	9	3	1-1	—	1-2	+5	1	0
J. CarterG · #2	30	2	1-6	0-3	—	-13	3	3
J. HowardG · #13	13	0	0-3	0-2	—	-4	1	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	3	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
Team		92	29-77	10-36	24-30		41	20
DNP: J. Cain, N. Penda, G. Bitadze

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

42-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

29-77

FG %

4-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-36

18-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-30

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

DET wins series 4-3

Apr 19

ORL112@

DET101

Apr 22

ORL83@

DET98

Apr 25

DET105@

ORL113

Apr 28

DET88@

ORL94

Apr 29

ORL109@

DET116

May 1

DET93@

ORL79

May 3

ORL94@

DET116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-20567%

ORL+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -5.5↗SpreadBet DET -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat ORL 106-92. C. Cunningham paced them with 29 PTS, 6 REB, 11 AST. DET outscored the other side 31-18 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 37 REB · 18 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

29 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST

GS 20

ORLstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST

GS 55

Bench(5)

14 PTS · 8 REB · 3 AST

GS 8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ORL4th Quarter · 11:41 · 81-78

+8pp→ 26% WP

Moritz Wagner · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)

ORL4th Quarter · 11:05 · 81-78

+8pp→ 40% WP

Caris LeVert · shooting foul

ORL4th Quarter · 10:12 · 83-83

+9pp→ 41% WP

Desmond Bane · makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	23	27	31	25	106
ORL	26	31	18	17	92

Period scoring

DET won 2 · ORL won 2

Cunningham 10

Banchero 9

II 7

Banchero 8

Cunningham 10

Tristan 5

Harris 6

Bane 7

DET

ORL

Shooting comparison

DET

ORL

45%

42-93

38%

29-77

13%

4-30

3PT

28%

10-36

75%

18-24

80%

24-30

Play-by-play · 489 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 106·ORL 92
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 106·ORL 92
Q4·21.5
Javonte Green defensive rebound
DET 106·ORL 92
Q4·24.4
Jalen Suggs misses 25-foot three point jumper
DET 106·ORL 92
Q4·36.0
Ausar Thompson makes layup (Cade Cunningham assists)
·
DET 106·ORL 92
Q4·56.3
Desmond Bane lost ball turnover (Tobias Harris steals)
·
DET 104·ORL 92
Q4·1:02
Ausar Thompson makes 2-foot driving dunk
DET 104·ORL 92
Q4·1:03
Paolo Banchero bad pass turnover (Ausar Thompson steals)
·
DET 102·ORL 92
Q4·1:05
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
DET 102·ORL 92
Q4·1:08
Ausar Thompson misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 102·ORL 92
+0.5pp
Q4·1:08
Tobias Harris enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 102·ORL 92
Q4·1:08
Ausar Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 102·ORL 92
Q4·1:08
Wendell Carter Jr. shooting foul
·
DET 101·ORL 92
−0.5pp
Q4·1:17
Paolo Banchero makes 1-foot driving dunk
DET 101·ORL 92
Q4·1:22
shot clock turnover
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·1:22
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·1:22
Cade Cunningham misses 26-foot three point jumper
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·1:43
Ausar Thompson defensive rebound
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·1:46
Tristan da Silva misses 26-foot three point jumper
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·1:57
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·2:01
Cade Cunningham misses 9-foot pullup jump shot
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·2:16
Jalen Duren enters the game for Paul Reed
·
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·2:16
Jalen Suggs personal foul
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·2:24
Duncan Robinson defensive rebound
DET 101·ORL 90
Q4·2:26
Jalen Suggs misses 23-foot three point jumper
DET 101·ORL 90
−0.6pp
Q4·2:47
Cade Cunningham makes 13-foot fade away jump shot
DET 101·ORL 90
−1pp
Q4·3:05
Ausar Thompson defensive rebound
DET 99·ORL 90
Q4·3:07
Jalen Suggs misses 23-foot three point jumper
DET 99·ORL 90
−5pp
Q4·3:18
Javonte Green personal foul
DET 99·ORL 90
+4pp
Q4·3:33
Javonte Green enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DET 99·ORL 90

Betting line

DET -5.5·O/U 224.5·DET -205/ORL +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Orlando Magic and beat them, 106–92.

DET -5.5 cashed (won by 14). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

ORL

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR