NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19MEM

MEM

23-36

125106

IND

15-46

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriesMEM wins series 2-0VegasIND -1.5

MEM · top performer

Olivier-Maxence Prosper

F · #18

18.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Jarace Walker

F · #5

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:28

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	21	17	8-9	1-2	—	0	2	3
G. JacksonF · #45	20	11	4-12	1-4	2-2	+2	9	2
J. WellsF · #0	21	18	8-9	2-3	—	+8	3	1
S. Pippen Jr.G · #1	20	16	7-16	0-1	2-2	+4	3	5
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	34	7	2-5	1-3	2-2	+17	3	14
Bench
T. HendricksF · #22	24	19	7-11	5-8	—	+16	5	0
C. SpencerG · #24	23	10	4-7	2-3	—	+4	3	4
J. MashackG · #21	23	4	2-7	0-2	—	+12	2	1
J. SmallG · #10	19	7	2-9	1-5	2-2	+20	4	3
R. RupertG · #32	33	16	4-9	2-4	6-6	+12	6	1
Team		125	48-94	15-35	14-14		40	34
DNP: C. Coward, T. Jerome

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ToppinF · #1	11	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+6	4	5
J. WalkerF · #5	25	21	8-10	4-5	1-4	-16	3	2
J. HuffC · #32	28	14	5-6	2-3	2-4	-6	4	0
B. SheppardG · #26	22	9	3-8	3-7	—	-4	2	1
K. JonesG · #7	33	10	4-11	0-3	2-2	-22	2	10
Bench
M. PotterC · #11	25	18	6-9	2-3	4-4	-13	9	0
T.J. McConnellG · #9	14	8	4-6	0-1	—	+5	0	5
K. BrownG · #24	27	9	3-9	1-3	2-2	-15	1	1
Q. JacksonG · #29	20	2	1-5	0-2	0-1	-8	5	3
T. PeterG · #4	36	11	4-13	3-11	—	-22	1	2
Team		106	39-80	15-39	13-19		31	29
DNP: P. Siakam, A. Nembhard

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

IND

Home

48-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-80

FG %

15-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-39

14-14

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM wins series 2-0

Oct 26

IND103@

MEM128

Mar 1

MEM125@

IND106today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM-11253%

IND-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -1.5↗SpreadBet IND -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MEM beat IND 125-106. O. Prosper led with 17 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST. MEM outscored the other side 34-23 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 20 REB · 25 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

56 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 45

INDstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 15 REB · 18 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

48 PTS · 16 REB · 11 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MEM2nd Quarter · 3:28 · 60-56

+9pp→ 65% WP

Taylor Hendricks · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)

MEM4th Quarter · 10:13 · 96-88

+7pp→ 86% WP

Jaylen Wells · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)

IND4th Quarter · 6:12 · 104-99

+6pp→ 16% WP

Jarace Walker · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	34	31	26	34	125
IND	34	26	23	23	106

Period scoring

MEM won 3 · IND won 0

Wells 9

Walker 6

Wells 6

Sheppard 6

Prosper 7

Potter 9

Rupert 10

Walker 8

MEM

IND

Shooting comparison

MEM

IND

51%

48-94

49%

39-80

43%

15-35

3PT

38%

15-39

100%

14-14

68%

13-19

Play-by-play · 455 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 125·IND 106
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 125·IND 106
Q4·17.9
Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 125·IND 106
Q4·17.9
Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 125·IND 105
Q4·17.9
Javon Small shooting foul
MEM 125·IND 104
Q4·19.2
Micah Potter offensive rebound
MEM 125·IND 104
Q4·22.5
Jay Huff misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 125·IND 104
Q4·40.8
Cam Spencer makes 8-foot two point shot
MEM 125·IND 104
Q4·53.7
Kam Jones makes driving layup
MEM 123·IND 104
Q4·1:04
Javon Small makes driving layup
MEM 123·IND 102
Q4·1:16
Micah Potter bad pass turnover (Cam Spencer steals)
·
MEM 121·IND 102
Q4·1:25
Jahmai Mashack back court turnover
MEM 121·IND 102
Q4·1:28
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MEM 121·IND 102
Q4·1:29
Taelon Peter blocks Javon Small's driving layup
·
MEM 121·IND 102
Q4·1:41
Micah Potter makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 121·IND 102
Q4·1:41
Micah Potter makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 121·IND 101
Q4·1:41
Rayan Rupert shooting foul
MEM 121·IND 100
Q4·1:41
Micah Potter offensive rebound
MEM 121·IND 100
Q4·1:42
Micah Potter misses 2-foot two point shot
MEM 121·IND 100
Q4·2:04
Jahmai Mashack makes driving layup (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
·
MEM 121·IND 100
Q4·2:18
Jay Huff bad pass turnover (Cam Spencer steals)
·
MEM 119·IND 100
Q4·2:31
Jay Huff enters the game for Quenton Jackson
· ·
MEM 119·IND 100
Q4·2:31
Pacers Full timeout
MEM 119·IND 100
Q4·2:34
Rayan Rupert makes 27-foot three pointer (Cam Spencer assists)
·
MEM 119·IND 100
Q4·2:52
Walter Clayton Jr. defensive rebound
MEM 116·IND 100
Q4·2:54
Kobe Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper
MEM 116·IND 100
Q4·3:11
Jahmai Mashack steps out of bounds turnover
MEM 116·IND 100
Q4·3:25
Grizzlies defensive team rebound
MEM 116·IND 100
Q4·3:30
Quenton Jackson misses 24-foot running jump shot
·
MEM 116·IND 100
Q4·3:34
Micah Potter defensive rebound
MEM 116·IND 100

Betting line

IND -1.5·O/U 236.5·MEM -112/IND -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

emphis Grizzlies went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 125–106.

MEM +1.5 cashed (IND lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
16.8± 8.1high

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Ivica ZubacIND
9.5± 4.1high
Santi AldamaMEM
6.7± 2.1high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
T.J. McConnellIND
6.2± 3.1high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.5± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

IND

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

45.8%

114.7

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

27.8

Assists / G

25.0

27.7

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR