NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19MEM

MEM

22-36

124105

DAL

21-38

NBAFri, Feb 27FinalSeriesMEM leads series 3-0VegasDAL -4.5

MEM · top performer

Cam Spencer

G · #24

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DAL · top performer

Dwight Powell

F · #7

13.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ DAL

Biggest swing: 6pp · 1st Quarter · 3:38

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	25	16	7-10	2-4	—	+16	10	1
G. JacksonF · #45	24	12	5-7	—	2-2	+18	3	4
J. WellsF · #0	20	12	4-10	2-4	2-3	+18	4	3
S. Pippen Jr.G · #1	22	15	7-12	1-3	—	+15	2	3
J. SmallG · #10	26	9	2-6	1-3	4-4	+12	4	5
Bench
T. HendricksF · #22	24	11	5-7	1-2	—	+1	8	2
C. SpencerG · #24	25	25	9-16	4-9	3-3	+10	2	3
J. MashackG · #21	23	8	3-7	0-1	2-2	+3	3	1
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	26	11	3-10	0-3	5-7	+4	2	5
R. RupertG · #32	25	5	2-8	1-3	—	-2	5	2
Team		124	47-93	12-32	18-21		43	29
DNP: C. Coward, T. Jerome

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	19	10	3-8	0-1	4-5	-19	1	3
D. GaffordF · #21	20	14	7-8	—	0-1	-20	5	0
N. MarshallF · #13	24	4	2-6	0-1	—	-24	2	2
B. WilliamsG · #10	26	16	5-14	2-3	4-5	-17	8	4
M. ChristieG · #00	29	13	5-12	1-5	2-2	-20	3	2
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	23	13	3-4	1-1	6-7	+3	11	1
M. CisseC · #30	13	8	4-5	—	0-6	+10	8	0
T. JonesG · #1	22	6	2-7	2-6	—	-2	0	4
M. KellyG · #14	31	9	3-11	2-7	1-1	-5	5	4
A. JohnsonG · #8	34	12	3-13	1-8	5-6	-1	3	4
Team		105	37-88	9-32	22-33		46	24
DNP: C. Martin, P.J. Washington

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

47-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-88

FG %

12-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-32

18-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MEM leads series 3-0

Nov 8

DAL104@

MEM118

Nov 23

MEM102@

DAL96

Feb 28

MEM124@

DAL105today

Mar 13

DAL120@

MEM112

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

241.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+16438%

DAL-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -4.5↗SpreadBet DAL -4.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

241.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MEM beat DAL 124-105. C. Spencer paced them with 25 PTS, 2 REB, 3 AST. MEM outscored the other side 34-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DAL vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 23 REB · 16 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

60 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 48

DALstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 35

Bench(5)

48 PTS · 27 REB · 13 AST

GS 36

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	34	30	37	23	124
DAL	20	24	26	35	105

Period scoring

MEM won 3 · DAL won 1

Jr. 9

Williams 5

Spencer 7

Gafford 6

Wells 10

Christie 9

Spencer 9

Cisse 8

MEM

DAL

Shooting comparison

MEM

DAL

51%

47-93

42%

37-88

38%

12-32

3PT

28%

9-32

86%

18-21

67%

22-33

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 124·DAL 105
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 124·DAL 105
Q4·5.6
Taylor Hendricks defensive rebound
MEM 124·DAL 105
Q4·8.6
Miles Kelly misses 23-foot running jump shot
MEM 124·DAL 105
Q4·13.9
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
MEM 124·DAL 105
Q4·17.8
Taylor Hendricks misses 24-foot three point jumper
MEM 124·DAL 105
Q4·38.1
Moussa Cisse makes two point shot
MEM 124·DAL 105
Q4·38.1
Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
MEM 124·DAL 103
Q4·39.5
Taylor Hendricks blocks Moussa Cisse 's 3-foot layup
·
MEM 124·DAL 103
Q4·41.1
Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
MEM 124·DAL 103
Q4·42.2
AJ Johnson misses two point shot
MEM 124·DAL 103
Q4·54.3
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
MEM 124·DAL 103
Q4·56.2
Cam Spencer misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 124·DAL 103
Q4·1:01
Tyus Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles Kelly assists)
·
MEM 124·DAL 103
Q4·1:22
Cam Spencer makes 20-foot jumper (Javon Small assists)
·
MEM 124·DAL 100
Q4·1:33
Miles Kelly makes free throw 1 of 1
MEM 122·DAL 100
Q4·1:33
Cam Spencer enters the game for Rayan Rupert
·
MEM 122·DAL 99
Q4·1:33
Rayan Rupert shooting foul
MEM 122·DAL 99
Q4·1:33
Miles Kelly makes two point shot
MEM 122·DAL 99
Q4·1:34
Miles Kelly offensive rebound
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:35
Miles Kelly misses layup
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:36
Rayan Rupert lost ball turnover (Miles Kelly steals)
·
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:37
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:38
Moussa Cisse misses free throw 2 of 2
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:38
Mavericks offensive team rebound
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:38
Moussa Cisse misses free throw 1 of 2
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:38
Taylor Hendricks loose ball foul
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:38
Mavericks offensive team rebound
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:40
Miles Kelly misses 22-foot three point jumper
MEM 122·DAL 97
Q4·1:49
Javon Small makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Taylor Hendricks assists)
·
MEM 122·DAL 97

Betting line

DAL -4.5·O/U 241.5·MEM +164/DAL -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

emphis Grizzlies went into Dallas Mavericks and beat them, 124–105.

MEM +4.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 241.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

DAL

53.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.6%

114.7

PPG

114.9

114.1

27.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.3

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR