NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19DEN

BOS

38-20

84103

DEN

37-22

NBAWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesDEN wins series 2-0VegasDEN -3.5

BOS · top performer

Derrick White

G · #9

17.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:49

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	24	5	2-5	1-2	—	-2	4	1
N. QuetaC · #88	28	10	4-6	0-1	2-2	-7	4	1
D. WhiteG · #9	33	20	6-14	4-9	4-4	-20	6	3
J. BrownG · #7	34	23	7-21	1-6	8-9	-12	11	3
B. ScheiermanG · #55	25	9	3-9	3-8	—	-16	4	0
Bench
D. BantonF · #45	6	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	1
N. VucevicC · #4	23	2	1-7	0-4	—	-9	8	1
L. GarzaC · #52	6	0	0-1	—	0-2	-2	2	1
P. PritchardG · #11	28	3	1-6	1-3	—	-13	3	4
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	11	3	1-7	1-7	—	-4	1	2
J. WalshG · #27	14	4	2-2	—	0-1	-4	3	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	10	5	2-4	1-3	—	-4	2	1
Team		84	29-83	12-43	14-18		48	18
DNP: J. Tonje

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	35	11	4-11	3-6	—	+17	5	3
N. JokicC · #15	33	30	11-28	4-13	4-7	+13	12	6
J. MurrayG · #27	8	2	1-3	0-2	—	0	0	1
C. BraunG · #0	28	6	2-5	2-5	—	-2	7	2
J. StrawtherG · #3	26	12	5-9	2-5	—	+2	1	1
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	7	0	0-1	0-1	0-2	+1	3	0
D. Holmes IIF · #14	3	5	2-2	1-1	—	+1	1	0
S. JonesF · #21	26	6	2-5	1-2	1-2	+22	7	0
J. ValanciunasC · #17	12	11	5-7	1-1	—	+7	6	2
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	21	14	5-9	1-4	3-5	+13	4	4
B. BrownG · #11	28	4	1-8	0-3	2-2	+8	4	5
K. SimpsonG · #25	14	2	1-5	—	—	+13	4	4
Team		103	39-93	15-43	10-18		54	28

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

29-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-93

FG %

12-43

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-43

14-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN wins series 2-0

Jan 8

DEN114@

BOS110

Feb 26

BOS84@

DEN103today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+13043%

DEN-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -3.5↗SpreadBet DEN -3.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat BOS 103-84. N. Jokic paced them with 30 PTS, 12 REB, 6 AST. DEN outscored the other side 30-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 29 REB · 8 AST

GS 45

Bench(7)

17 PTS · 19 REB · 10 AST

GS 10

DENstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST

GS 42

Bench(7)

42 PTS · 29 REB · 15 AST

GS 41

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN3rd Quarter · 9:03 · 54-50

+8pp→ 40% WP

Jaylen Brown · misses 19-foot pullup jump shot

BOS3rd Quarter · 5:18 · 61-59

+8pp→ 53% WP

Sam Hauser · makes 25-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)

DEN3rd Quarter · 3:49 · 61-64

+8pp→ 64% WP

Nikola Jokic · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	24	24	19	17	84
DEN	21	26	30	26	103

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · DEN won 3

Brown 12

Jokic 11

White 18

Jr. 6

Brown 9

Jokic 22

Gonzalez 5

Strawther 7

BOS

DEN

Shooting comparison

BOS

DEN

35%

29-83

42%

39-93

28%

12-43

3PT

35%

15-43

78%

14-18

56%

10-18

Play-by-play · 471 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·12.2
shot clock turnover
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·33.3
DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·36.2
Luka Garza misses free throw 2 of 2
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·36.2
Celtics offensive team rebound
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·36.2
Luka Garza misses free throw 1 of 2
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·36.2
Zeke Nnaji shooting foul
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·39.2
Luka Garza offensive rebound
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·42.1
Ron Harper Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·49.1
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·51.8
Spencer Jones misses driving floating jump shot
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·58.3
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·59.3
Julian Strawther blocks Luka Garza 's 6-foot two point shot
·
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·1:00
Luka Garza offensive rebound
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·1:01
Dalano Banton misses driving layup
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·1:15
DaRon Holmes II makes 26-foot three point jumper (KJ Simpson assists)
·
BOS 84·DEN 103
Q4·1:25
Jordan Walsh makes driving layup (Luka Garza assists)
·
BOS 84·DEN 100
Q4·1:39
Julian Strawther makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 82·DEN 100
Q4·1:44
Nuggets offensive team rebound
BOS 82·DEN 97
Q4·1:44
Dalano Banton blocks KJ Simpson 's 4-foot driving floating jump shot
·
BOS 82·DEN 97
Q4·1:55
Hugo Gonzalez makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot
BOS 82·DEN 97
Q4·2:08
DaRon Holmes II makes 15-foot jumper (KJ Simpson assists)
·
BOS 80·DEN 97
Q4·2:24
Hugo Gonzalez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ron Harper Jr. assists)
·
BOS 80·DEN 95
Q4·2:34
DaRon Holmes II enters the game for Nikola Jokic
·
BOS 77·DEN 95
Q4·2:34
Zeke Nnaji enters the game for Cameron Johnson
·
BOS 77·DEN 95
Q4·2:34
KJ Simpson enters the game for Bruce Brown
· ·
BOS 77·DEN 95
Q4·2:34
Julian Strawther offensive foul turnover
BOS 77·DEN 95
Q4·2:34
Julian Strawther offensive foul
BOS 77·DEN 95
Q4·2:43
Hugo Gonzalez steps out of bounds turnover
BOS 77·DEN 95

Betting line

DEN -3.5·O/U 228.5·BOS +130/DEN -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Boston Celtics, 103–84.

DEN -3.5 cashed (won by 19). Total stayed UNDER 228.5 by 41.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

DEN

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

114.2

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR