NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21GS

31-28

133112

MEM

21-36

NBAWed, Feb 25FinalSeriesGS wins series 3-0VegasGS -3.5

GS · top performer

Will Richard

G · #3

22.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MEM · top performer

GG Jackson

F · #45

20.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowGS ↔ MEM

Biggest swing: 18pp · 2nd Quarter · 10:48

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. SantosF · #15	26	17	6-7	1-2	4-4	+21	3	4
A. HorfordC · #20	27	10	4-10	2-6	—	+12	7	3
M. MoodyG · #4	28	14	4-7	3-5	3-3	+6	2	3
B. PodziemskiG · #2	31	19	6-14	3-8	4-4	+22	8	6
W. RichardG · #3	30	21	9-15	2-6	1-1	+6	5	6
Bench
M. LeonsF · #33	18	9	3-5	1-1	2-4	+3	8	2
Q. PostC · #21	21	12	4-9	2-6	2-3	+9	8	0
G. Payton IIG · #0	28	19	8-12	3-7	—	+3	5	4
P. SpencerG · #61	32	12	5-13	2-5	—	+23	2	9
Team		133	49-92	19-46	16-19		48	37
DNP: D. Green, K. Porzingis, D. Melton

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. ProsperF · #18	20	3	1-5	1-2	—	-6	2	2
G. JacksonF · #45	26	24	8-12	3-6	5-6	-8	8	2
J. WellsF · #0	27	8	3-8	2-4	—	+8	2	3
T. JeromeG · #2	24	22	8-14	4-8	2-2	-17	3	5
J. SmallG · #10	28	16	6-8	3-5	1-1	-7	6	4
Bench
T. HendricksF · #22	28	14	6-11	0-2	2-3	-15	6	4
S. Pippen Jr.G · #1	20	8	3-7	1-3	1-2	-14	3	4
C. SpencerG · #24	21	5	2-4	1-3	—	-29	1	2
W. Clayton Jr.G · #4	22	4	1-8	1-4	1-2	-6	0	3
R. RupertG · #32	24	8	3-7	1-4	1-2	-11	3	1
Team		112	41-84	17-41	13-18		34	30
DNP: S. Aldama, C. Coward

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

MEM

Home

49-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-84

FG %

19-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-41

16-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS wins series 3-0

Oct 28

MEM118@

GS131

Feb 10

MEM113@

GS114

Feb 26

GS133@

MEM112today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

GS -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

GS-18064%

MEM+15040%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet GS -3.5↗SpreadBet GS -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat MEM 133-112. W. Richard led with 21 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. GS outscored the other side 40-22 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MEM vs GS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

GSstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 25 REB · 22 AST

GS 79

Bench(4)

52 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST

GS 48

MEMstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 21 REB · 16 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 13 REB · 14 AST

GS 27

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

GS1st Quarter · 6:17 · 17-12

+10pp→ 61% WP

Walter Clayton Jr. · misses 26-foot three point jumper

MEM1st Quarter · 5:37 · 17-15

+9pp→ 49% WP

Gui Santos · enters the game for Brandin Podziemski

MEM2nd Quarter · 10:48 · 37-33

+18pp→ 42% WP

Olivier-Maxence Prosper · blocks Brandin Podziemski's driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
GS	34	40	22	37	133
MEM	31	22	23	36	112

Period scoring

GS won 3 · MEM won 1

Richard 8

Podziemski 9

Moody 9

Jackson 7

Santos 8

Jackson 6

II 10

Jerome 10

MEM

Shooting comparison

MEM

53%

49-92

49%

41-84

41%

19-46

3PT

41%

17-41

84%

16-19

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 478 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
GS 133·MEM 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
GS 133·MEM 112
Q4·1.2
shot clock turnover
GS 133·MEM 112
Q4·25.2
Rayan Rupert makes two point shot (GG Jackson assists)
·
GS 133·MEM 112
Q4·29.0
GG Jackson defensive rebound
GS 133·MEM 110
Q4·32.9
Taylor Hendricks blocks Pat Spencer 's 18-foot pullup jump shot
· ·
GS 133·MEM 110
Q4·52.9
Quinten Post defensive rebound
GS 133·MEM 110
Q4·56.8
Javon Small misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
GS 133·MEM 110
Q4·58.3
Javon Small offensive rebound
GS 133·MEM 110
Q4·1:02
Jaylen Wells misses 24-foot three point jumper
GS 133·MEM 110
Q4·1:16
Pat Spencer makes 12-foot pullup jump shot
·
GS 133·MEM 110
Q4·1:35
GG Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2
GS 131·MEM 110
Q4·1:35
GG Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2
GS 131·MEM 109
Q4·1:35
Quinten Post shooting foul
GS 131·MEM 108
Q4·1:46
GG Jackson enters the game for Walter Clayton Jr.
·
GS 131·MEM 108
Q4·1:46
Gary Payton II out of bounds bad pass turnover
GS 131·MEM 108
Q4·1:55
Javon Small makes 23-foot three pointer (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)
·
GS 131·MEM 108
Q4·2:01
Will Richard makes 1-foot running dunk (Gary Payton II assists)
·
GS 131·MEM 105
Q4·2:05
Jaylen Wells lost ball turnover (Gary Payton II steals)
·
GS 129·MEM 105
Q4·2:22
Will Richard makes two point shot (Pat Spencer assists)
· ·
GS 129·MEM 105
Q4·2:27
Walter Clayton Jr. bad pass turnover (Pat Spencer steals)
· ·
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:33
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:36
Malevy Leons misses free throw 2 of 2
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:36
Warriors offensive team rebound
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:36
Malevy Leons misses free throw 1 of 2
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:36
Rayan Rupert personal foul
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:50
Gary Payton II defensive rebound
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:53
Taylor Hendricks misses free throw 1 of 1
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:53
Javon Small enters the game for Scotty Pippen Jr.
·
GS 127·MEM 105
Q4·2:53
Malevy Leons shooting foul
GS 127·MEM 105

Betting line

GS -3.5·O/U 227.5·GS -180/MEM +150

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors went into Memphis Grizzlies and beat them, 133–112. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

GS -3.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 17.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Cam SpencerMEM · G
TS%64.992
Al HorfordGS · C
CONT6.689
Quinten PostGS · C
CONT6.388

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · GS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MEM win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs GS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
20.4± 6.0high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Santi AldamaMEM
6.7± 2.1high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high

Assists

Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
4.8± 1.7high

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

MEM

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

46.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

114.5

PPG

114.9

114.7

28.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.8

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR