NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+32CHA

CHA

28-31

13199

CHI

24-35

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriesCHA wins series 3-1VegasCHA -8.5

CHA · top performer

Moussa Diabate

F · #14

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Matas Buzelis

F · #14

26.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 15pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:59

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	22	16	6-11	4-7	—	+19	7	2
M. DiabateF · #14	31	9	4-4	—	1-2	+22	7	5
B. MillerF · #24	25	23	9-16	5-9	—	+16	5	3
L. BallG · #1	23	16	6-16	4-12	—	+31	3	7
K. KnueppelG · #7	23	21	7-12	3-6	4-4	+24	1	2
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	19	11	3-5	2-4	3-3	+19	4	2
X. TillmanF · #26	7	2	1-3	0-2	—	-6	3	0
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	17	0	—	—	—	+10	1	1
P. ConnaughtonG · #21	13	5	2-7	1-5	—	-9	3	0
C. WhiteG · #3	16	10	4-9	2-4	—	+20	3	4
J. GreenG · #10	17	11	4-6	3-5	—	+21	4	0
T. MannG · #23	8	7	3-5	1-2	—	-2	4	1
S. JamesG · #4	20	0	0-1	0-1	—	-5	1	4
Team		131	49-95	25-57	8-9		46	31

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	27	11	3-8	3-7	2-2	-9	4	1
P. WilliamsF · #44	26	11	4-6	3-5	—	-4	2	1
I. OkoroF · #35	27	7	1-6	1-5	4-4	-33	2	2
M. BuzelisF · #14	33	32	13-19	6-11	—	-7	7	2
J. GiddeyG · #3	26	8	3-11	0-2	2-3	-22	2	5
Bench
L. MillerF · #11	5	5	2-2	1-1	—	+1	2	0
N. RichardsC · #13	22	6	2-5	—	2-2	-22	5	0
C. SextonG · #2	28	10	4-9	2-5	—	-16	2	1
T. JonesG · #30	20	3	1-7	0-2	1-2	-25	2	1
R. DillinghamG · #7	23	6	2-9	0-2	2-2	-21	5	5
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		99	35-82	16-40	13-15		33	18
DNP: J. Smith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

49-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-82

FG %

25-57

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-40

8-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 3-1

Nov 29

CHI116@

CHA123

Dec 13

CHI129@

CHA126

Jan 4

CHA112@

CHI99

Feb 25

CHA131@

CHI99today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-31076%

CHI+25029%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -8.5↗SpreadBet CHA -8.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat CHI 131-99. M. Diabate led with 9 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST. CHA outscored the other side 42-16 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 79

Bench(8)

46 PTS · 23 REB · 12 AST

GS 43

CHIstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 50

Bench(6)

30 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 17

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI2nd Quarter · 7:23 · 36-45

+6pp→ 63% WP

Patrick Williams · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)

CHI2nd Quarter · 6:59 · 36-45

+15pp→ 67% WP

Josh Green · bad pass turnover (Isaac Okoro steals)

CHI3rd Quarter · 11:35 · 56-58

+7pp→ 44% WP

Matas Buzelis · makes 26-foot running jump shot (Isaac Okoro assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	31	25	42	33	131
CHI	31	24	16	28	99

Period scoring

CHA won 3 · CHI won 0

Miller 8

Buzelis 10

White 6

Sexton 8

Knueppel 12

Buzelis 5

Green 8

Buzelis 13

CHA

CHI

Shooting comparison

CHA

CHI

52%

49-95

43%

35-82

44%

25-57

3PT

40%

16-40

89%

8-9

87%

13-15

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 131·CHI 99
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 131·CHI 99
Q4·9.2
shot clock turnover
CHA 131·CHI 99
Q4·33.2
Leonard Miller makes 1-foot two point shot (Collin Sexton assists)
· ·
CHA 131·CHI 99
Q4·40.5
Tre Mann makes two point shot
CHA 131·CHI 97
Q4·41.9
Leonard Miller bad pass turnover (Tre Mann steals)
· ·
CHA 129·CHI 97
Q4·45.8
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
·
CHA 129·CHI 97
Q4·47.6
Xavier Tillman misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 129·CHI 97
Q4·1:10
Leonard Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)
· ·
CHA 129·CHI 97
Q4·1:18
Tre Mann makes 26-foot three pointer
CHA 129·CHI 94
Q4·1:34
Tre Mann defensive rebound
CHA 126·CHI 94
Q4·1:36
Isaac Okoro misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot
CHA 126·CHI 94
Q4·1:47
Xavier Tillman makes two point shot
CHA 126·CHI 94
Q4·1:47
Xavier Tillman offensive rebound
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·1:50
Pat Connaughton misses 22-foot three point jumper
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:12
Pat Connaughton defensive rebound
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:14
Collin Sexton misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:21
Rob Dillingham defensive rebound
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:24
Sion James misses 26-foot three point jumper
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:26
Xavier Tillman offensive rebound
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:29
Pat Connaughton misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:44
Xavier Tillman defensive rebound
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:46
Rob Dillingham misses driving floating jump shot
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:59
Isaac Okoro enters the game for Guerschon Yabusele
·
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:59
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·2:59
Bulls Full timeout
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·3:00
Pat Connaughton makes 26-foot running jump shot (Tre Mann assists)
·
CHA 124·CHI 94
Q4·3:02
Tre Mann defensive rebound
CHA 121·CHI 94
Q4·3:05
Tre Mann blocks Collin Sexton 's 6-foot driving floating jump shot
·
CHA 121·CHI 94
Q4·3:15
Matas Buzelis defensive rebound
CHA 121·CHI 94

Betting line

CHA -8.5·O/U 232.5·CHA -310/CHI +250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 131–99. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHA -8.5 cashed (won by 32). Total stayed UNDER 232.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

CHI

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.7%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.9%

115.8

PPG

114.9

116.3

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

14.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR