NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21ATL

WSH

16-41

98119

ATL

29-31

NBATue, Feb 24FinalSeriesATL leads series 2-1VegasATL -12.5

WSH · top performer

Will Riley

G · #27

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jonathan Kuminga

F · #0

27.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ ATL

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. VukcevicF · #00	22	5	2-6	1-2	—	-17	6	1
K. GeorgeF · #18	21	11	3-10	1-5	4-4	-24	2	2
B. CarringtonG · #7	26	3	1-6	1-2	—	-11	10	7
B. CoulibalyG · #0	24	8	3-9	0-2	2-3	-20	6	4
T. JohnsonG · #12	24	8	3-12	0-5	2-2	-31	1	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	24	5	2-4	—	1-2	-4	5	3
J. ChampagnieF · #9	15	14	5-8	4-6	—	-19	2	0
S. CooperG · #13	17	7	3-8	0-1	1-2	-7	0	1
A. WilliamsG · #31	9	5	2-5	0-3	1-1	+15	3	0
J. WatkinsG · #5	27	14	6-8	2-3	—	+9	2	1
W. RileyG · #27	29	18	7-8	1-2	3-3	+4	4	2
Team		98	37-84	10-31	14-17		41	23
DNP: J. Hardy

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	23	10	4-17	2-7	—	+22	10	7
J. JohnsonF · #1	6	5	2-4	—	1-2	+2	3	0
C. McCollumG · #3	23	8	2-12	0-6	4-4	+4	2	2
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	25	16	4-10	3-7	5-5	+19	3	5
D. DanielsG · #5	24	6	3-7	0-2	—	+28	8	7
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	21	12	4-8	2-5	2-2	-10	3	2
J. KumingaF · #0	24	27	9-12	3-4	6-7	+16	7	4
M. GueyeF · #18	18	6	2-4	0-2	2-2	+3	11	1
Z. RisacherF · #10	28	9	4-11	0-5	1-2	+18	9	3
J. LandaleC · #31	21	6	3-8	0-2	—	+1	3	1
G. VincentG · #4	22	11	4-10	2-8	1-1	+13	2	1
K. WallaceG · #2	6	3	1-4	0-2	1-1	-11	0	0
Team		119	42-107	12-50	23-26		61	33
DNP: B. Hield

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

37-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-107

FG %

10-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-50

14-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL leads series 2-1

Nov 26

ATL113@

WSH132

Dec 7

ATL131@

WSH116

Feb 25

WSH98@

ATL119today

Feb 27

WSH96@

ATL126

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -12.5

Between 10 and —

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+47018%

ATL-65087%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -12.5↗SpreadBet ATL -12.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

12.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat WSH 119-98. J. Kuminga paced them with 27 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. ATL outscored the other side 40-21 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 36% of pts

Starters(5)

35 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST

GS 21

Bench(6)

63 PTS · 16 REB · 7 AST

GS 48

ATLstarters 38% of pts

Starters(5)

45 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST

GS 44

Bench(7)

74 PTS · 35 REB · 12 AST

GS 63

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	20	23	21	34	98
ATL	35	25	40	19	119

Period scoring

WSH won 1 · ATL won 3

Vukcevic 5

Kuminga 7

Champagnie 5

Kispert 5

Johnson 6

Kuminga 18

Riley 10

Kispert 7

WSH

ATL

Shooting comparison

WSH

ATL

44%

37-84

39%

42-107

32%

10-31

3PT

24%

12-50

82%

14-17

88%

23-26

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 98·ATL 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 98·ATL 119
Q4·1.6
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
WSH 98·ATL 119
Q4·2.6
Alondes Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 98·ATL 119
Q4·16.2
shot clock turnover
WSH 98·ATL 119
Q4·37.0
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
WSH 98·ATL 119
Q4·41.0
Sharife Cooper misses free throw 2 of 2
WSH 98·ATL 119
Q4·41.0
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 98·ATL 119
Q4·41.0
Keaton Wallace personal foul
WSH 97·ATL 119
Q4·52.1
Alondes Williams defensive rebound
WSH 97·ATL 119
Q4·56.6
Keaton Wallace misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 97·ATL 119
Q4·1:08
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
WSH 97·ATL 119
Q4·1:11
Alondes Williams misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
WSH 97·ATL 119
Q4·1:25
Keaton Wallace makes 4-foot driving floating jump shot
WSH 97·ATL 119
Q4·1:31
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
WSH 97·ATL 117
Q4·1:33
Sharife Cooper misses 21-foot step back jumpshot
WSH 97·ATL 117
Q4·1:45
Jamir Watkins defensive rebound
WSH 97·ATL 117
Q4·1:47
Zaccharie Risacher misses free throw 2 of 2
WSH 97·ATL 117
Q4·1:47
Zaccharie Risacher makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 97·ATL 117
Q4·1:47
Keaton Wallace makes technical free throw
WSH 97·ATL 116
Q4·1:47
Sharife Cooper technical foul
WSH 97·ATL 115
Q4·1:47
Sharife Cooper personal foul
WSH 97·ATL 115
Q4·2:03
Alondes Williams makes running layup
WSH 97·ATL 115
Q4·2:09
Alondes Williams defensive rebound
WSH 95·ATL 115
Q4·2:12
Zaccharie Risacher misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 95·ATL 115
Q4·2:19
Corey Kispert defensive rebound
WSH 95·ATL 115
Q4·2:20
Alondes Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
WSH 95·ATL 115
Q4·2:37
Corey Kispert steps out of bounds turnover
WSH 95·ATL 115
Q4·2:38
Hawks offensive team rebound
WSH 95·ATL 115
Q4·2:40
Keaton Wallace misses 24-foot three point jumper
WSH 95·ATL 115

Betting line

ATL -12.5·O/U 236.5·WSH +470/ATL -650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Washington Wizards, 119–98. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -12.5 cashed (won by 21). Total stayed UNDER 236.5 by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

ATL

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR