NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4DAL

DAL

20-36

134130

IND

15-43

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesDAL wins series 2-0VegasDAL -1.5

DAL · top performer

Khris Middleton

F · #20

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Andrew Nembhard

G · #2

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 8pp · 4th Quarter · 5:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. MiddletonF · #20	30	25	11-15	3-5	—	+5	7	7
D. GaffordF · #21	22	8	3-7	—	2-4	+10	6	2
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	37	23	8-14	1-4	6-8	+4	9	2
N. MarshallF · #13	26	17	7-10	0-1	3-6	-1	2	2
M. ChristieG · #00	31	16	6-11	2-4	2-2	-5	2	4
Bench
C. MartinF · #16	18	7	3-5	1-2	—	+1	4	1
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	26	12	5-9	—	2-4	-6	11	1
K. ThompsonG · #31	19	9	3-11	3-7	—	+3	3	0
T. JonesG · #1	12	2	1-4	0-2	—	-6	0	3
B. WilliamsG · #10	22	15	4-8	1-3	6-8	+15	1	7
Team		134	51-94	11-28	21-32		45	29
DNP: D. Powell, M. Kelly, A. Johnson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	29	30	12-19	2-3	4-5	+7	8	3
J. WalkerF · #5	34	18	6-13	4-7	2-5	+3	9	6
J. HuffC · #32	26	9	4-10	0-6	1-1	-9	1	1
A. NembhardG · #2	30	22	7-14	3-6	5-5	-4	1	11
K. JonesG · #7	31	10	4-4	2-2	—	-14	0	3
Bench
M. PotterC · #11	22	2	1-7	0-4	—	+5	6	5
K. BrownG · #24	19	15	5-9	3-4	2-2	-10	7	0
B. SheppardG · #26	27	13	4-9	3-6	2-2	0	3	2
Q. JacksonG · #29	23	11	4-9	3-4	—	+2	4	6
Team		130	47-94	20-42	16-20		39	37
DNP: T.J. McConnell, A. Nesmith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

IND

Home

51-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-94

FG %

11-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-42

21-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DAL wins series 2-0

Oct 30

IND105@

DAL107

Feb 22

DAL134@

IND130today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-11854%

IND-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat IND 134-130. K. Middleton paced them with 25 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 26 REB · 17 AST

GS 75

Bench(5)

45 PTS · 19 REB · 12 AST

GS 42

INDstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 19 REB · 24 AST

GS 74

Bench(4)

41 PTS · 20 REB · 13 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 5:37 · 117-112

+8pp→ 27% WP

Khris Middleton · shooting foul

DAL4th Quarter · 4:03 · 126-119

+8pp→ 91% WP

Khris Middleton · makes 23-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)

IND4th Quarter · 1:43 · 130-124

+8pp→ 12% WP

Khris Middleton · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	36	35	32	31	134
IND	33	33	29	35	130

Period scoring

DAL won 3 · IND won 1

Washington 10

Siakam 11

Marshall 7

Siakam 38

Marshall 8

Siakam 11

Middleton 9

Jones 8

DAL

IND

Shooting comparison

DAL

IND

54%

51-94

50%

47-94

39%

11-28

3PT

48%

20-42

66%

21-32

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 501 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 134·IND 130
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 134·IND 130
−3pp
Q4·7.3
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
DAL 134·IND 130
−2pp
Q4·9.7
Jarace Walker misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
DAL 134·IND 130
−5pp
Q4·13.5
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
DAL 134·IND 130
−0.8pp
Q4·16.3
Naji Marshall misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
DAL 134·IND 130
+6pp
Q4·16.3
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 134·IND 130
+2pp
Q4·16.3
Naji Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 134·IND 130
+1pp
Q4·16.3
Ben Sheppard personal take foul
DAL 134·IND 130
−4pp
Q4·20.3
Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 134·IND 130
−5pp
Q4·20.3
Jarace Walker makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 134·IND 129
+1pp
Q4·20.3
P.J. Washington personal foulBIG MOMENT
DAL 134·IND 128
+7pp
Q4·20.3
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
DAL 134·IND 128
Q4·21.5
Jay Huff blocks Marvin Bagley III 's 2-foot layup
·
DAL 134·IND 128
+0.9pp
Q4·27.7
P.J. Washington defensive goaltending violation
DAL 134·IND 128
Q4·27.7
Pascal Siakam makes two point shot
DAL 134·IND 128
+0.9pp
Q4·27.7
Pascal Siakam offensive rebound
DAL 134·IND 126
+0.5pp
Q4·30.9
Ben Sheppard misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
DAL 134·IND 126
−0.8pp
Q4·33.4
Pacers Full timeout
DAL 134·IND 126
Q4·33.4
Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 134·IND 126
+0.8pp
Q4·33.4
Ben Sheppard enters the game for Kam Jones
· ·
DAL 133·IND 126
Q4·33.4
Max Christie makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 133·IND 126
Q4·33.4
Jarace Walker personal foul
DAL 132·IND 126
−2pp
Q4·43.6
Jay Huff makes alley oop layup (Jarace Walker assists)
·
DAL 132·IND 126
+0.9pp
Q4·53.4
Max Christie makes running layup (Khris Middleton assists)
·
DAL 132·IND 124
−2pp
Q4·56.5
Khris Middleton defensive rebound
DAL 130·IND 124
−1pp
Q4·59.9
Pascal Siakam misses two point shot
DAL 130·IND 124
−3pp
Q4·1:04
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
DAL 130·IND 124
+0.7pp
Q4·1:08
Max Christie misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
DAL 130·IND 124
−1pp
Q4·1:24
(01:24) [Pacers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Pacers] charged with a timeout
DAL 130·IND 124
+3pp

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 237.5·DAL -118/IND -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

allas Mavericks went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 134–130. Decided by 4.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 237.5 OVER by 26.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

IND

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.3%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR