NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11GS

DEN

36-22

117128

30-27

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesGS leads series 2-1VegasDEN -6.5

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

40.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Al Horford

C · #20

25.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 17pp · 1st Quarter · 1:46

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	38	9	1-7	0-4	7-7	-8	3	2
N. JokicC · #15	36	35	11-21	3-4	10-11	-6	20	12
J. MurrayG · #27	33	21	9-17	1-6	2-3	-1	2	2
C. BraunG · #0	35	18	7-11	1-4	3-4	+1	5	2
J. StrawtherG · #3	18	6	2-7	0-3	2-2	-1	3	2
Bench
S. JonesF · #21	13	2	1-2	0-1	—	-12	2	1
J. ValanciunasC · #17	12	6	3-7	—	—	-5	3	2
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	25	8	3-9	1-6	1-2	-6	1	0
B. BrownG · #11	29	12	5-10	2-3	—	-17	5	2
Team		117	42-91	8-31	25-29		44	25
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, K. Simpson

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. SantosF · #15	28	17	6-7	2-3	3-4	+5	5	7
A. HorfordC · #20	27	22	8-11	6-7	—	+14	1	7
D. MeltonG · #8	25	20	7-18	2-10	4-4	+6	4	2
M. MoodyG · #4	35	23	9-16	4-9	1-1	+5	7	5
P. SpencerG · #61	19	2	1-3	0-2	—	-7	0	5
Bench
Q. PostC · #21	21	0	0-3	0-2	—	-1	7	4
G. Payton IIG · #0	19	15	6-11	3-8	—	+4	3	0
B. PodziemskiG · #2	37	18	7-16	3-7	1-1	+19	15	9
W. RichardG · #3	30	11	4-9	1-4	2-2	+10	2	3
Team		128	48-94	21-52	11-12		44	42
DNP: D. Green, K. Porzingis, Se. Curry

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

Home

42-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-94

FG %

8-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

21-52

25-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-12

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

GS leads series 2-1

Oct 24

DEN131@

GS137

Nov 8

GS104@

DEN129

Feb 22

DEN117@

GS128today

Mar 30

GS93@

DEN116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN-23870%

GS+19534%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -6.5↗SpreadBet DEN -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

GS beat DEN 128-117. A. Horford led with 22 PTS, 1 REB, 7 AST. GS outscored the other side 33-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 33 REB · 20 AST

GS 77

Bench(4)

28 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 21

GSstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 17 REB · 26 AST

GS 80

Bench(4)

44 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN1st Quarter · 5:14 · 17-22

+15pp→ 44% WP

Nikola Jokic · misses 1-foot tip shot

GS4th Quarter · 7:08 · 109-107

+14pp→ 32% WP

Gary Payton II · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)

GS4th Quarter · 5:38 · 109-112

+14pp→ 64% WP

Brandin Podziemski · makes 27-foot running jump shot (Gui Santos assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	27	40	34	16	117
GS	39	37	19	33	128

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · GS won 2

Braun 12

Moody 19

Murray 10

Jokic 14

Melton 6

Murray 5

Podziemski 15

DEN

Shooting comparison

DEN

46%

42-91

51%

48-94

26%

8-31

3PT

40%

21-52

86%

25-29

92%

11-12

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 117·GS 128
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 117·GS 128
Q4·20.6
Al Horford makes 2-foot dunk (Moses Moody assists)
·
DEN 117·GS 128
Q4·33.7
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·36.4
Jamal Murray misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·38.5
Moses Moody kicked ball violation
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·44.2
shot clock turnover
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·45.1
Warriors offensive team rebound
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·46.9
De'Anthony Melton misses 26-foot three point jumper
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·1:06
De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·1:09
Cameron Johnson misses 23-foot three point jumper
DEN 117·GS 126
+0.5pp
Q4·1:13
Bruce Brown offensive rebound
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·1:17
Cameron Johnson misses 28-foot three point jumper
DEN 117·GS 126
+0.7pp
Q4·1:30
5 second violation
DEN 117·GS 126
−1pp
Q4·1:30
Warriors Full timeout
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·1:30
Moses Moody enters the game for Will Richard
·
DEN 117·GS 126
Q4·1:30
Cameron Johnson personal foul
DEN 117·GS 126
+0.7pp
Q4·1:41
Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointer (Bruce Brown assists)
·
DEN 117·GS 126
−0.7pp
Q4·1:45
Christian Braun offensive rebound
DEN 114·GS 126
Q4·1:48
Al Horford blocks Cameron Johnson 's 3-foot driving layup
·
DEN 114·GS 126
Q4·1:57
Brandin Podziemski makes 13-foot pullup jump shot
DEN 114·GS 126
+0.6pp
Q4·2:25
Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)
·
DEN 114·GS 124
−0.6pp
Q4·2:41
Brandin Podziemski makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Anthony Melton assists)
·
DEN 111·GS 124
+2pp
Q4·2:57
Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound
DEN 111·GS 121
Q4·2:57
Bruce Brown misses 2-foot tip shot
DEN 111·GS 121
−2pp
Q4·2:58
Bruce Brown offensive rebound
DEN 111·GS 121
−0.6pp
Q4·3:01
Bruce Brown misses layup
DEN 111·GS 121
+1pp
Q4·3:15
Brandin Podziemski makes tip shot
DEN 111·GS 121
+1pp
Q4·3:15
Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound
DEN 111·GS 119
+2pp
Q4·3:19
De'Anthony Melton misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
DEN 111·GS 119
−1pp

Betting line

DEN -6.5·O/U 228.5·DEN -238/GS +195

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

olden State Warriors held off Denver Nuggets, 128–117.

GS +6.5 cashed (DEN lost outright). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
De'Anthony MeltonGS · G
DEFL2.992
Jonas ValanciunasDEN · C
USG%26.790
Al HorfordGS · C
CONT6.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

GS vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Stephen CurryGS
25.2± 8.3high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Kristaps PorzingisGS
5.6± 2.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
5.4± 1.6high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Draymond GreenGS
6.6± 3.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Al HorfordGS
1.1± 1.3high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Charles BasseyGS
0.9± 1.1medium

Steals

De'Anthony MeltonGS
1.5± 1.4high
Jimmy Butler IIIGS
1.5± 1.3high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.1%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.2%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

114.5

28.7

Assists / G

25.0

28.8

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR