NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8OKC

CLE

36-22

113121

OKC

44-14

NBASun, Feb 22FinalSeriesOKC wins series 2-0VegasCLE -4.5

CLE · top performer

James Harden

G · #1

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Cason Wallace

G · #22

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCLE ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 5:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	18	0	0-1	0-1	—	-13	3	1
J. AllenC · #31	29	11	4-6	—	3-6	-15	13	2
E. MobleyC · #4	25	15	6-11	1-4	2-2	-3	2	1
J. HardenG · #1	34	20	8-14	3-7	1-2	-13	5	9
D. MitchellG · #45	35	20	9-19	0-6	2-3	-1	7	5
Bench
N. TomlinF · #35	10	0	0-3	0-1	—	+3	2	0
D. SchroderG · #8	22	11	3-9	1-2	4-4	-3	4	7
S. MerrillG · #5	29	20	7-12	6-10	—	+6	3	0
J. TysonG · #20	16	7	2-7	1-4	2-2	-1	4	0
K. EllisG · #14	23	9	4-7	1-4	—	0	1	3
Team		113	43-89	13-39	14-19		44	28
DNP: L. Nance Jr., T. Bryant, D. Brown, C. Porter Jr., T. Proctor

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	26	13	6-6	—	1-4	+23	7	4
C. HolmgrenC · #7	34	17	5-14	1-4	6-9	+17	15	4
I. JoeG · #11	30	22	6-13	6-11	4-4	+14	2	3
L. DortG · #5	35	12	5-11	2-6	0-2	+1	3	2
C. WallaceG · #22	34	20	7-17	4-8	2-2	+13	4	10
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	17	10	3-6	3-5	1-2	-17	3	0
K. WilliamsG · #34	18	8	3-3	2-2	—	-4	2	1
A. WigginsG · #21	22	7	3-7	1-2	—	-2	3	4
J. McCainG · #3	16	10	3-7	2-3	2-2	-2	3	1
N. TopicG · #44	8	2	1-2	—	—	-3	2	3
Team		121	42-86	21-41	16-25		44	32
DNP: B. Boeheim, B. Barnhizer

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

43-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-86

FG %

13-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

21-41

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC wins series 2-0

Jan 19

OKC136@

CLE104

Feb 22

CLE113@

OKC121today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLE-17564%

OKC+14541%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗SpreadBet CLE -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat CLE 121-113. C. Wallace led with 20 PTS, 4 REB, 10 AST. OKC outscored the other side 40-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs CLE

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CLEstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 30 REB · 18 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

47 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 37

OKCstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 31 REB · 23 AST

GS 76

Bench(5)

37 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE3rd Quarter · 7:55 · 69-70

+10pp→ 54% WP

Luguentz Dort · misses free throw 1 of 1

CLE3rd Quarter · 2:31 · 86-86

+9pp→ 46% WP

Jaylon Tyson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)

CLE4th Quarter · 5:37 · 101-106

+10pp→ 31% WP

Cason Wallace · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	25	30	31	27	113
OKC	40	24	25	32	121

Period scoring

CLE won 2 · OKC won 2

Mitchell 8

Joe 11

Mitchell 6

Williams 6

Merrill 8

Dort 5

Harden 10

Wallace 20

CLE

OKC

Shooting comparison

CLE

OKC

48%

43-89

49%

42-86

33%

13-39

3PT

51%

21-41

74%

14-19

64%

16-25

Play-by-play · 492 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CLE 113·OKC 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CLE 113·OKC 121
Q4·0.4
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
CLE 113·OKC 121
Q4·3.6
Donovan Mitchell misses 22-foot running jump shot
CLE 113·OKC 121
Q4·5.4
James Harden defensive rebound
CLE 113·OKC 121
Q4·9.4
Chet Holmgren misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 113·OKC 121
Q4·9.4
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 113·OKC 121
Q4·9.4
Keon Ellis personal foul
CLE 113·OKC 120
Q4·9.7
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
CLE 113·OKC 120
Q4·13.1
Sam Merrill misses 26-foot three point jumper
CLE 113·OKC 120
+1pp
Q4·18.7
Chet Holmgren makes free throw 2 of 2
CLE 113·OKC 120
Q4·18.7
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Hartenstein
· ·
CLE 113·OKC 119
Q4·18.7
Thunder offensive team rebound
CLE 113·OKC 119
−0.6pp
Q4·18.7
Chet Holmgren misses free throw 1 of 2
CLE 113·OKC 119
Q4·18.7
Evan Mobley personal foul
CLE 113·OKC 119
+1pp
Q4·19.5
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
CLE 113·OKC 119
+2pp
Q4·21.0
Isaiah Hartenstein misses free throw 2 of 2
CLE 113·OKC 119
−3pp
Q4·21.0
Isaiah Hartenstein makes free throw 1 of 2
CLE 113·OKC 119
Q4·21.0
Evan Mobley personal foul
CLE 113·OKC 118
+2pp
Q4·21.0
Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
CLE 113·OKC 118
+1pp
Q4·22.6
Donovan Mitchell misses 21-foot two point shot
CLE 113·OKC 118
+4pp
Q4·28.1
James Harden enters the game for Dennis Schroder
·
CLE 113·OKC 118
Q4·28.1
Isaiah Hartenstein enters the game for Isaiah Joe
·
CLE 113·OKC 118
Q4·28.1
Isaiah Joe offensive foul turnover
CLE 113·OKC 118
Q4·28.1
(00:28.1) [Cavaliers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Cavaliers] retain their timeout
CLE 113·OKC 118
Q4·28.1
Cavaliers Coach's Challenge
CLE 113·OKC 118
Q4·28.1
Isaiah Joe offensive foulBIG MOMENT
CLE 113·OKC 118
−7pp
Q4·28.1
Dennis Schroder enters the game for James Harden
·
CLE 113·OKC 118
Q4·28.1
James Harden personal foul
CLE 113·OKC 118
+4pp
Q4·29.5
Keon Ellis enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
CLE 113·OKC 118

Betting line

CLE -4.5·O/U 228.5·CLE -175/OKC +145

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder held off Cleveland Cavaliers, 121–113.

OKC +4.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998
Evan MobleyCLE · C
CONT9.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

OKC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
James HardenCLE
19.6± 6.6high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Ajay MitchellOKC
4.2± 2.6high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CLE

league avg

OKC

55.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.2%

117.4

PPG

114.9

118.5

27.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR