NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LAC

DEN

35-21

114115

LAC

27-28

NBAThu, Feb 19FinalSeriesDEN wins series 2-1VegasDEN -4.5

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Bennedict Mathurin

G · #9

30.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 37pp · 4th Quarter · 0.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	35	18	6-12	2-7	4-4	+2	4	3
N. JokicC · #15	36	22	9-22	0-6	4-7	-6	17	6
J. MurrayG · #27	35	20	5-15	2-5	8-10	-1	8	8
C. BraunG · #0	34	7	3-6	0-1	1-1	-5	2	3
J. StrawtherG · #3	25	18	6-11	6-10	—	+6	1	2
Bench
S. JonesF · #21	16	2	1-3	0-2	—	-1	2	1
J. ValanciunasC · #17	12	6	2-3	—	2-2	+5	4	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	20	2	1-5	0-4	—	-6	2	0
B. BrownG · #11	25	19	6-9	3-5	4-7	+1	5	6
Team		114	39-86	13-40	23-31		45	29
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, J. Pickett

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	33	23	8-18	1-7	6-8	-9	4	3
J. CollinsF · #20	32	11	5-10	1-4	—	-1	12	4
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	34	22	7-15	2-7	6-7	-2	3	1
B. LopezC · #11	31	8	4-10	0-4	—	-3	6	2
K. DunnG · #8	29	2	1-4	—	—	+2	8	8
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	18	6	2-3	2-3	—	+2	2	0
I. JacksonF · #23	4	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	13	4	2-3	—	—	+7	4	1
J. MillerG · #22	13	1	0-2	0-2	1-2	+6	1	4
B. MathurinG · #9	34	38	12-22	2-6	12-13	+4	5	4
Team		115	41-87	8-33	25-30		45	27
DNP: B. Bogdanovic, K. Sanders, C. Christie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

39-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-87

FG %

13-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-33

23-31

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN wins series 2-1

Nov 13

DEN130@

LAC116

Jan 31

LAC109@

DEN122

Feb 20

DEN114@

LAC115today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN-18565%

LAC+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -4.5↗SpreadBet DEN -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat DEN 115-114. B. Mathurin led the way with 38 points and 5 rebounds. DEN outscored the other side 28-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 32 REB · 22 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

29 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 21

LACstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 33 REB · 18 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

49 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 42

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 11.0 · 112-113

+19pp→ 29% WP

Jamal Murray · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 0.9 · 114-115

+35pp→ 39% WP

Jamal Murray · makes free throw 2 of 3

LAC4th Quarter · 0.9 · 114-115

+37pp→ 97% WP

Jamal Murray · misses free throw 3 of 3

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	24	28	25	37	114
LAC	25	20	33	37	115

Period scoring

DEN won 1 · LAC won 2

Johnson 7

Mathurin 11

Brown 12

Leonard 7

Strawther 6

Leonard 10

Murray 13

Mathurin 16

DEN

LAC

Shooting comparison

DEN

LAC

45%

39-86

47%

41-87

33%

13-40

3PT

24%

8-33

74%

23-31

83%

25-30

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 114·LAC 115
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 114·LAC 115
+3pp
Q4·0.9
John Collins defensive rebound
DEN 114·LAC 115
Q4·0.9
Jamal Murray misses free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
DEN 114·LAC 115
+37pp
Q4·0.9
Yanic Konan Niederhauser enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin
·
DEN 114·LAC 115
Q4·0.9
Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Cameron Johnson
·
DEN 114·LAC 115
Q4·0.9
Christian Braun enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
DEN 114·LAC 115
Q4·0.9
Bruce Brown enters the game for Julian Strawther
·
DEN 114·LAC 115
Q4·0.9
Brook Lopez enters the game for Kris Dunn
·
DEN 114·LAC 115
Q4·0.9
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
DEN 114·LAC 115
−35pp
Q4·0.9
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 3
DEN 113·LAC 115
−3pp
Q4·0.9
(00:00.9) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
DEN 112·LAC 115
+2pp
Q4·0.9
Derrick Jones Jr. shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 112·LAC 115
+12pp
Q4·9.1
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 112·LAC 115
−4pp
Q4·9.1
Julian Strawther enters the game for Christian Braun
·
DEN 112·LAC 114
Q4·9.1
Kris Dunn enters the game for Brook Lopez
·
DEN 112·LAC 114
−2pp
Q4·9.1
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 112·LAC 114
+2pp
Q4·9.1
Tim Hardaway Jr. personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 112·LAC 113
+18pp
Q4·11.0
Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 112·LAC 113
−19pp
Q4·13.0
Jamal Murray enters the game for Spencer Jones
·
DEN 109·LAC 113
Q4·13.0
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 109·LAC 113
Q4·13.0
Brook Lopez makes 2-foot driving dunk (Bennedict Mathurin assists)BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 109·LAC 113
+7pp
Q4·15.1
Spencer Jones enters the game for Jamal Murray
·
DEN 109·LAC 111
Q4·15.1
Clippers Full timeout
DEN 109·LAC 111
+1pp
Q4·18.5
Jamal Murray makes driving dunk
DEN 109·LAC 111
−5pp
Q4·24.9
Derrick Jones Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
·
DEN 107·LAC 111
−6pp
Q4·24.9
Derrick Jones Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
·
DEN 107·LAC 110
+1pp
Q4·24.9
Tim Hardaway Jr. personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 107·LAC 109
+11pp
Q4·27.6
John Collins defensive rebound
DEN 107·LAC 109
+4pp
Q4·29.8
Brook Lopez blocks Nikola Jokic 's 4-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
DEN 107·LAC 109
+10pp

Betting line

DEN -4.5·O/U 226.5·DEN -185/LAC +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers held off Denver Nuggets, 115–114. It came down to the final possession.

LAC +4.5 cashed (DEN lost outright). Total cleared the 226.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
John CollinsLAC
5.8± 2.5high
Brook LopezLAC
5.5± 2.4high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high

Blocks

Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high
Isaiah JacksonLAC
1.2± 0.8high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

LAC

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.9%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.5%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

113.9

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR