NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+37ORL

ORL

29-25

13194

SAC

12-45

NBAThu, Feb 19FinalSeriesORL leads series 1-0VegasORL -8.5

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

18.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowORL ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:08

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	32	30	10-21	5-7	5-5	+32	5	6
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	25	2	1-5	0-2	—	+10	8	3
D. BaneG · #3	32	17	6-9	3-5	2-3	+11	4	2
J. SuggsG · #4	20	9	3-8	3-7	—	-7	3	3
A. BlackG · #0	31	20	8-13	4-6	—	+26	3	3
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	18	11	2-7	1-5	6-8	+17	2	3
J. IsaacF · #1	13	0	0-3	0-1	—	+4	7	1
J. CainF · #8	5	0	0-3	0-1	—	+10	2	1
T. da SilvaF · #23	18	12	4-6	4-6	—	+17	4	1
N. PendaF · #93	5	0	—	—	—	+10	0	0
J. CarterG · #2	23	14	5-8	3-5	1-1	+34	3	4
J. HowardG · #13	13	16	6-6	4-4	—	+11	0	0
J. RichardsonG · #11	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	+10	0	1
Team		131	45-90	27-50	14-17		41	28
DNP: G. Bitadze

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	34	14	7-12	0-1	—	-21	10	1
K. MurrayF · #13	32	15	6-13	3-7	—	-18	8	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	39	17	8-13	—	1-1	-14	14	4
R. WestbrookG · #18	17	5	2-8	1-6	—	-14	0	1
D. DeRozanG · #10	19	13	3-11	—	7-8	-8	3	6
Bench
D. EubanksF · #19	11	0	0-2	—	—	-19	5	1
M. MonkG · #0	20	14	5-8	3-6	1-3	-15	0	2
D. PlowdenG · #29	10	0	0-2	0-1	—	-15	1	0
D. CarterG · #22	28	11	3-12	0-5	5-6	-29	5	4
N. CliffordG · #5	30	5	1-5	1-1	2-2	-32	2	1
Team		94	35-86	8-27	16-20		48	22
DNP: D. McDermott, D. Cardwell

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ORL

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

45-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-86

FG %

27-50

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-27

14-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL leads series 1-0

Feb 20

ORL131@

SAC94today

Mar 26

SAC117@

ORL121

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

226.5

Standard · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ORL-34578%

SAC+27527%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -8.5↗SpreadBet ORL -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

226.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat SAC 131-94. P. Banchero paced them with 30 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. ORL outscored the other side 46-27 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs ORL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ORLstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 23 REB · 17 AST

GS 67

Bench(8)

53 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST

GS 50

SACstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 35 REB · 14 AST

GS 53

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC2nd Quarter · 10:01 · 24-35

+6pp→ 66% WP

Nique Clifford · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)

ORL2nd Quarter · 7:55 · 32-37

+6pp→ 49% WP

Moritz Wagner · makes 5-foot dunk (Tristan da Silva assists)

SAC3rd Quarter · 5:08 · 80-79

+7pp→ 33% WP

Malik Monk · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ORL	18	46	38	29	131
SAC	28	27	29	10	94

Period scoring

ORL won 3 · SAC won 1

Suggs 6

Monk 9

Banchero 13

Clifford 5

Banchero 10

Murray 6

Howard 10

Clifford 8

ORL

SAC

Shooting comparison

ORL

SAC

50%

45-90

41%

35-86

54%

27-50

3PT

30%

8-27

82%

14-17

80%

16-20

Play-by-play · 452 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ORL 131·SAC 94
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ORL 131·SAC 94
Q4·24.7
Nique Clifford lost ball turnover (Jamal Cain steals)
·
ORL 131·SAC 94
Q4·33.1
Jett Howard makes 24-foot jump bank shot
ORL 131·SAC 94
Q4·54.3
Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·58.6
Devin Carter misses 24-foot three point jumper
·
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:08
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:11
Jamal Cain misses driving floating jump shot
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:19
Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:22
Devin Carter misses tip shot
·
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:22
Devin Carter offensive rebound
·
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:24
Maxime Raynaud misses two point shot
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:38
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:42
Jase Richardson misses 26-foot three point jumper
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:53
Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·1:55
Nique Clifford misses 20-foot step back jumpshot
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·2:11
Jett Howard makes 1-foot running dunk (Jase Richardson assists)
·
ORL 128·SAC 94
Q4·2:13
Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound
ORL 126·SAC 94
Q4·2:16
Daeqwon Plowden misses driving floating jump shot
ORL 126·SAC 94
Q4·2:31
Jett Howard makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jamal Cain assists)
·
ORL 126·SAC 94
Q4·2:55
Jonathan Isaac defensive rebound
ORL 123·SAC 94
Q4·2:57
Maxime Raynaud misses 13-foot two point shot
ORL 123·SAC 94
Q4·3:11
Devin Carter defensive rebound
·
ORL 123·SAC 94
Q4·3:15
Jamal Cain misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
ORL 123·SAC 94
Q4·3:32
Jamal Cain defensive rebound
ORL 123·SAC 94
Q4·3:32
Devin Carter misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
ORL 123·SAC 94
Q4·3:44
Jett Howard makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Jonathan Isaac assists)
·
ORL 123·SAC 94
Q4·3:55
Precious Achiuwa personal foul
ORL 121·SAC 94
Q4·3:55
Nique Clifford bad pass turnover (Jase Richardson steals)
·
ORL 121·SAC 94
Q4·4:09
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
ORL 121·SAC 94

Betting line

ORL -8.5·O/U 226.5·ORL -345/SAC +275

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 131–94. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ORL -8.5 cashed (won by 37). Total stayed UNDER 226.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL · C
CONT9.197
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797
Anthony BlackORL · G
DEFL3.797
Keegan MurraySAC · F
CONT7.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ORL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs ORL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high
Franz WagnerORL
18.1± 4.3high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ORL

league avg

SAC

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.7%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

26.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

13.7

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR