NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11BOS

BOS

36-19

121110

29-27

NBAThu, Feb 19FinalSeriesBOS leads series 1-0VegasBOS -5.5

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

GS · top performer

Will Richard

G · #3

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ GS

Biggest swing: 6pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:42

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	28	16	6-10	4-5	—	+22	3	5
N. QuetaC · #88	18	9	4-6	—	1-2	+3	6	1
D. WhiteG · #9	39	10	4-13	0-5	2-2	+14	5	8
J. BrownG · #7	37	23	10-18	0-3	3-3	+11	15	13
B. ScheiermanG · #55	24	7	3-9	1-5	—	0	5	1
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	28	9	4-9	1-2	—	+17	5	0
L. GarzaC · #52	2	3	1-1	1-1	—	-9	1	0
P. PritchardG · #11	33	26	10-18	6-11	—	+5	6	7
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	12	6	2-4	2-4	—	-6	2	1
J. WalshG · #27	7	5	2-2	1-1	—	-9	2	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	12	7	3-5	1-3	—	+7	4	0
Team		121	49-95	17-40	6-7		54	36
DNP: D. Banton, A. Williams, J. Tonje

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GreenF · #23	19	0	0-7	0-5	—	-28	2	3
G. SantosF · #15	32	17	6-14	5-9	—	+8	6	2
D. MeltonG · #8	25	18	7-13	2-6	2-4	-3	3	1
M. MoodyG · #4	23	11	4-9	3-7	0-2	-27	3	2
P. SpencerG · #61	27	5	2-7	1-3	—	-4	2	7
Bench
A. HorfordC · #20	28	5	2-10	1-6	—	+1	8	4
K. PorzingisC · #7	17	12	5-9	2-5	—	-4	1	1
G. Payton IIG · #0	18	14	6-8	2-4	—	+15	3	2
B. PodziemskiG · #2	27	11	5-8	1-3	—	0	7	6
W. RichardG · #3	24	17	6-11	3-7	2-2	-13	5	2
Team		110	43-96	20-55	4-8		40	30
DNP: M. Leons, Q. Post, N. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

Home

49-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-96

FG %

17-40

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-55

6-7

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

4-8

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

Feb 20

BOS121@

GS110today

Mar 18

GS99@

BOS120

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

211.5

Defensive · -14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-21869%

GS+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

211.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat GS 121-110. J. Brown stuffed the line with 23 PTS, 15 REB, and 13 AST. BOS outscored the other side 38-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

GS vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 34 REB · 28 AST

GS 67

Bench(6)

56 PTS · 20 REB · 8 AST

GS 50

GSstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST

GS 38

Bench(5)

59 PTS · 24 REB · 15 AST

GS 57

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS2nd Quarter · 11:42 · 39-32

+6pp→ 75% WP

Nikola Vucevic · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	36	38	28	19	121
GS	32	19	22	37	110

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · GS won 1

Brown 8

Richard 11

Pritchard 13

Santos 5

Brown 8

Moody 8

Pritchard 8

Santos 13

BOS

Shooting comparison

BOS

52%

49-95

45%

43-96

43%

17-40

3PT

36%

20-55

86%

6-7

50%

4-8

Play-by-play · 439 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 121·GS 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 121·GS 110
Q4·18.9
Brandin Podziemski makes driving layup
BOS 121·GS 110
Q4·26.0
Al Horford defensive rebound
BOS 121·GS 108
Q4·29.8
Payton Pritchard misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
BOS 121·GS 108
Q4·53.0
Jaylen Brown defensive rebound
BOS 121·GS 108
Q4·53.0
Derrick White blocks De'Anthony Melton 's 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
BOS 121·GS 108
Q4·59.6
Neemias Queta makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (Jaylen Brown assists)
·
BOS 121·GS 108
Q4·1:14
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:15
Gui Santos misses 6-foot two point shot
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:24
Gui Santos enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:24
Warriors defensive team rebound
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:24
Neemias Queta enters the game for Nikola Vucevic
·
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:24
Warriors Full timeout
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:26
Sam Hauser misses 19-foot jumper
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:36
Gary Payton II enters the game for Gui Santos
·
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:36
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 3 of 3
BOS 119·GS 108
Q4·1:36
Warriors offensive team rebound
BOS 119·GS 107
Q4·1:36
De'Anthony Melton misses free throw 2 of 3
BOS 119·GS 107
Q4·1:36
De'Anthony Melton makes free throw 1 of 3
BOS 119·GS 107
Q4·1:36
Jaylen Brown shooting foul
BOS 119·GS 106
Q4·1:49
Jaylen Brown makes 7-foot fade away jump shot (Derrick White assists)
·
BOS 119·GS 106
Q4·2:01
De'Anthony Melton enters the game for Gary Payton II
·
BOS 117·GS 106
Q4·2:01
Gui Santos personal foul
BOS 117·GS 106
Q4·2:22
Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound
BOS 117·GS 106
Q4·2:24
Al Horford misses 23-foot running jump shot
BOS 117·GS 106
Q4·2:27
Gui Santos defensive rebound
BOS 117·GS 106
Q4·2:28
Sam Hauser misses 4-foot reverse layup
BOS 117·GS 106
Q4·2:28
Sam Hauser offensive rebound
BOS 117·GS 106
Q4·2:34
Derrick White misses 19-foot pullup jump shot
BOS 117·GS 106

Betting line

BOS -5.5·O/U 211.5·BOS -218/GS +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Golden State Warriors and beat them, 121–110.

BOS -5.5 cashed (won by 11). Total cleared the 211.5 OVER by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Kristaps PorzingisGS · C
CONT9.498
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Draymond GreenGS · F
CONT7.593

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(GS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

46.2%

114.2

PPG

114.9

114.5

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.8

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR