NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4HOU

HOU

34-20

105101

CHA

26-30

NBAThu, Feb 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasHOU -4.5

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

32.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Grant Williams

F · #2

18.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 34pp · 4th Quarter · 6:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	36	35	14-20	2-4	5-5	-4	8	4
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	31	15	6-9	2-3	1-1	-5	7	1
T. EasonF · #17	33	5	2-9	1-6	—	-6	3	0
A. SengunC · #28	32	13	6-16	0-3	1-2	+4	2	7
A. ThompsonG · #1	37	9	3-8	0-3	3-3	+5	7	2
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	23	8	3-7	2-6	—	+6	4	1
J. TateF · #8	15	7	3-4	1-2	—	+7	0	1
C. CapelaC · #30	9	0	0-1	—	—	+2	4	0
R. SheppardG · #15	24	13	5-12	1-5	2-2	+11	4	3
Team		105	42-86	9-32	12-13		39	19
DNP: J. Green, I. Crawford, A. Holiday, J. Okogie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. WilliamsF · #2	29	20	7-10	4-5	2-2	+5	9	1
B. MillerF · #24	34	17	5-22	1-12	6-7	+2	4	7
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	30	12	5-6	—	2-3	-4	4	4
L. BallG · #1	31	11	5-14	1-6	—	+11	7	7
K. KnueppelG · #7	31	15	5-11	3-6	2-2	+9	5	4
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
T. SalaunF · #31	20	9	3-5	2-3	1-2	-9	4	0
P. HallC · #16	14	2	0-1	—	2-2	-7	4	1
J. GreenG · #10	14	2	1-2	0-1	—	-13	2	0
T. MannG · #23	18	5	2-6	1-4	—	-6	3	0
S. JamesG · #4	19	8	3-7	2-5	—	-8	4	1
Team		101	36-84	14-42	15-18		46	25
DNP: M. Bridges, M. Diabate, P. Connaughton, A. Reeves

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

42-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-84

FG %

9-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-42

12-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Feb 6

CHA109@

HOU99

Feb 20

HOU105@

CHA101today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-19266%

CHA+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -4.5↗SpreadBet HOU -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat CHA 105-101. K. Durant led the way with 35 points and 8 rebounds. HOU outscored the other side 29-19 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 70

Bench(4)

28 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST

GS 23

CHAstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 29 REB · 23 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

26 PTS · 17 REB · 2 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU2nd Quarter · 2:05 · 49-45

+11pp→ 69% WP

PJ Hall · lost ball turnover (Amen Thompson steals)

CHA3rd Quarter · 1:50 · 78-77

+29pp→ 43% WP

Clint Capela · misses 4-foot tip shot

CHA4th Quarter · 3:29 · 95-91

+16pp→ 19% WP

Grant Williams · enters the game for Brandon Miller

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	24	29	27	25	105
CHA	33	19	26	23	101

Period scoring

HOU won 3 · CHA won 1

Durant 10

Kalkbrenner 6

Durant 6

Knueppel 6

Durant 9

Kalkbrenner 11

Durant 10

James 12

HOU

CHA

Shooting comparison

HOU

CHA

49%

42-86

43%

36-84

28%

9-32

3PT

33%

14-42

92%

12-13

83%

15-18

Play-by-play · 460 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 105·CHA 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 105·CHA 101
−1pp
Q4·1.1
Hornets offensive team rebound
HOU 105·CHA 101
+0.5pp
Q4·1.1
Brandon Miller misses 34-foot three point jumper
HOU 105·CHA 101
−2pp
Q4·3.2
Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Reed Sheppard
·
HOU 105·CHA 101
Q4·3.2
LaMelo Ball enters the game for PJ Hall
·
HOU 105·CHA 101
Q4·3.2
Sion James enters the game for Ryan KalkbrennerBIG MOMENT
·
HOU 105·CHA 101
−16pp
Q4·3.2
Hornets Full timeout
HOU 105·CHA 101
Q4·3.2
Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 105·CHA 101
+1pp
Q4·3.2
Grant Williams enters the game for Josh Green
· ·
HOU 104·CHA 101
Q4·3.2
PJ Hall enters the game for Sion James
·
HOU 104·CHA 101
Q4·3.2
Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 104·CHA 101
Q4·3.2
Sion James personal foul
HOU 103·CHA 101
−1pp
Q4·5.3
Brandon Miller personal foulBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·CHA 101
−6pp
Q4·5.7
Ryan Kalkbrenner enters the game for Grant Williams
·
HOU 103·CHA 101
Q4·5.7
Josh Green enters the game for LaMelo Ball
· ·
HOU 103·CHA 101
Q4·5.7
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 103·CHA 101
Q4·5.7
Kon Knueppel makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 103·CHA 101
+6pp
Q4·7.0
Brandon Miller offensive rebound
HOU 103·CHA 98
+0.7pp
Q4·10.2
Kon Knueppel misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 103·CHA 98
−4pp
Q4·14.6
Grant Williams offensive rebound
HOU 103·CHA 98
+2pp
Q4·16.5
Brandon Miller misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 103·CHA 98
−4pp
Q4·21.3
Kevin Durant makes 17-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
HOU 103·CHA 98
−6pp
Q4·32.5
Reed Sheppard enters the game for Dorian Finney-Smith
·
HOU 101·CHA 98
Q4·32.5
Alperen Sengun enters the game for Tari Eason
·
HOU 101·CHA 98
Q4·32.5
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 101·CHA 98
−1pp
Q4·44.3
Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot three point jumper (Sion James assists)BIG MOMENT
·
HOU 101·CHA 98
+8pp
Q4·53.7
Grant Williams offensive rebound
HOU 101·CHA 95
+3pp
Q4·56.6
Brandon Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper
HOU 101·CHA 95
−3pp
Q4·1:01
Grant Williams offensive rebound
HOU 101·CHA 95
+3pp

Betting line

HOU -4.5·O/U 218.5·HOU -192/CHA +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 105–101. Decided by 4.

CHA +4.5 cashed (HOU won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 218.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

CHA

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.2

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR