NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20LAL

DAL

19-35

104124

LAL

33-21

NBAThu, Feb 12FinalSeriesLAL lead series 3-0VegasLAL -6.5

DAL · top performer

Brandon Williams

G · #10

15.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 29pp · 2nd Quarter · 6:30

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. GaffordF · #21	28	2	1-2	—	—	-2	6	1
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	34	18	5-10	1-4	7-8	-4	4	2
N. MarshallF · #13	29	19	8-13	0-3	3-5	-2	2	4
B. WilliamsG · #10	29	17	6-11	1-3	4-5	+2	5	7
M. ChristieG · #00	30	19	7-12	2-4	3-4	-28	1	4
Bench
K. MiddletonF · #20	21	8	3-11	1-5	1-1	-16	1	1
D. PowellF · #7	3	2	1-1	—	—	-4	1	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	20	7	3-7	0-1	1-2	-18	4	0
K. ThompsonG · #31	23	9	4-8	1-3	—	-2	3	0
T. JonesG · #1	19	3	1-3	1-3	—	-22	0	3
A. JohnsonG · #8	3	0	0-1	—	—	-4	1	0
Team		104	39-79	7-26	19-25		28	22
DNP: C. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	35	28	10-20	2-7	6-7	+6	10	12
R. HachimuraF · #28	35	21	9-13	3-4	—	+18	3	1
J. LaRaviaF · #12	26	11	4-6	0-1	3-3	+21	3	2
J. HayesC · #11	34	16	8-10	—	—	+26	7	4
M. SmartG · #36	26	9	4-14	1-9	—	+6	2	6
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	13	5	2-3	1-2	—	-6	1	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	17	5	2-3	1-2	—	+10	6	0
D. TimmeF · #17	2	0	—	—	—	0	0	1
D. KnechtF · #4	2	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
A. ThieroF · #1	2	2	1-1	—	—	0	0	0
L. KennardG · #10	18	9	3-4	1-2	2-2	+13	7	3
A. ReavesG · #15	28	18	5-10	1-3	7-9	+6	4	6
K. BufkinG · #18	2	0	0-1	—	—	0	0	0
B. JamesG · #9	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
Team		124	48-86	10-31	18-21		44	35

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

39-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-86

FG %

7-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-31

19-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-21

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 3-0

Nov 29

DAL119@

LAL129

Jan 25

LAL116@

DAL110

Feb 13

DAL104@

LAL124today

Apr 5

LAL128@

DAL134

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

237.5

High-scoring · +11.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+21032%

LAL-25872%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -6.5↗SpreadBet LAL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

237.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat DAL 124-104. L. James stuffed the line with 28 PTS, 10 REB, and 12 AST. LAL outscored the other side 32-19 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 18 REB · 18 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

29 PTS · 10 REB · 4 AST

GS 12

LALstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 25 REB · 25 AST

GS 76

Bench(9)

39 PTS · 19 REB · 10 AST

GS 37

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DAL1st Quarter · 10:21 · 4-4

+22pp→ 44% WP

Jaxson Hayes · misses 1-foot tip shot

DAL3rd Quarter · 9:40 · 69-68

+7pp→ 48% WP

Brandon Williams · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)

LAL2nd Quarter · 1:31 · 54-64

+12pp→ 82% WP

LeBron James · out of bounds lost ball turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	31	32	19	22	104
LAL	36	28	32	28	124

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · LAL won 3

Marshall 6

James 14

Marshall 10

LaRavia 9

Williams 5

Kleber 17

Washington 9

Reaves 7

DAL

LAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

LAL

49%

39-79

56%

48-86

27%

7-26

3PT

32%

10-31

76%

19-25

86%

18-21

Play-by-play · 452 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·7.6
Max Christie defensive rebound
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·12.3
Bronny James misses 26-foot three point jumper
·
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·28.9
Dalton Knecht defensive rebound
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·31.6
Max Christie misses 26-foot three point jumper
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·32.8
Dwight Powell offensive rebound
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·37.1
Marvin Bagley III misses 27-foot three point jumper
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·44.4
AJ Johnson defensive rebound
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·47.4
Kobe Bufkin misses driving floating jump shot
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·1:06
Dwight Powell makes layup (Max Christie assists)
·
DAL 104·LAL 124
Q4·1:22
Adou Thiero makes 7-foot fade away jump shot (Drew Timme assists)
·
DAL 102·LAL 124
Q4·1:45
Max Christie makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 102·LAL 122
Q4·1:45
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Rui Hachimura
·
DAL 101·LAL 122
Q4·1:45
Bronny James enters the game for LeBron James
·
DAL 101·LAL 122
Q4·1:45
Drew Timme enters the game for Austin Reaves
·
DAL 101·LAL 122
Q4·1:45
Adou Thiero enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
DAL 101·LAL 122
Q4·1:45
Kobe Bufkin enters the game for Jaxson Hayes
·
DAL 101·LAL 122
Q4·1:45
Max Christie makes free throw 1 of 2
DAL 101·LAL 122
Q4·1:45
Rui Hachimura personal take foul
DAL 100·LAL 122
Q4·1:49
Jaxson Hayes makes dunk (Jake LaRavia assists)
·
DAL 100·LAL 122
Q4·2:05
LeBron James defensive rebound
·
DAL 100·LAL 120
Q4·2:09
Tyus Jones misses 27-foot three point jumper
DAL 100·LAL 120
Q4·2:26
Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)
·
DAL 100·LAL 120
Q4·2:37
Marvin Bagley III makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 100·LAL 117
Q4·2:37
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 99·LAL 117
Q4·2:37
Marvin Bagley III misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 99·LAL 117
Q4·2:37
Rui Hachimura loose ball foul
DAL 99·LAL 117
Q4·2:37
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 99·LAL 117
Q4·2:37
AJ Johnson misses driving layup
DAL 99·LAL 117

Betting line

LAL -6.5·O/U 237.5·DAL +210/LAL -258

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off Dallas Mavericks, 124–104. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAL -6.5 cashed (won by 20). Total stayed UNDER 237.5 by 9.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Marvin Bagley IIIDAL · F
TS%66.193

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

LAL

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

114.1

PPG

114.9

114.8

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

14.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR