POR
27-29
UTAH
18-38
POR · top performer
Jrue Holiday
G · #5
31
Pts
9
Reb
7
Ast
UTAH · top performer
Kyle Filipowski
F · #22
15
Pts
9
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 3:22
NBA · Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 33 | 18 | 7-17 | 2-8 | 2-2 | +23 | 3 | 0 | |
| 29 | 14 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-2 | +24 | 8 | 3 | |
| 31 | 23 | 8-12 | 0-1 | 7-9 | +21 | 18 | 7 | |
| 33 | 31 | 10-15 | 4-8 | 7-9 | +29 | 9 | 7 | |
| 30 | 8 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | +25 | 4 | 1 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 3 | 2 | 0-1 | — | 2-2 | -8 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 11 | 4-12 | 3-8 | — | -14 | 0 | 2 | |
| 25 | 11 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 1-2 | +4 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 15 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 5-6 | -6 | 1 | 4 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -12 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | — | -3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Team | 135 | 46-90 | 18-46 | 25-33 | 52 | 26 | ||
| DNP: D. Avdija, R. Williams III, S. Sharpe | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 15 | 6-9 | 1-4 | 2-4 | -17 | 9 | 3 | |
| 25 | 9 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 1-1 | -13 | 2 | 3 | |
| 36 | 28 | 8-19 | 5-11 | 7-9 | -27 | 4 | 0 | |
| 36 | 15 | 3-8 | — | 9-12 | -24 | 2 | 9 | |
| 35 | 15 | 7-15 | 1-5 | — | -19 | 8 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 25 | 11 | 4-7 | 3-6 | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 5 | 0 | — | — | — | +8 | 1 | 3 | |
| 17 | 14 | 5-8 | 4-5 | — | -3 | 1 | 3 | |
| 25 | 6 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-3 | +9 | 7 | 3 | |
| 7 | 6 | 3-5 | 0-1 | — | +6 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 119 | 42-87 | 14-38 | 21-29 | 38 | 28 | ||
| DNP: K. Love, J. Nurkic, E. Harkless | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
51
FG %
48
26
Ast
28
Team stats
POR
Away
Stat
UTAH
Home
46-90
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-87
51
FG %
48
18-46
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-38
25-33
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
21-29
26
Assists
28
19
Turnovers
19
Season series
POR leads series 3-0
POR136@UTAH134UTAH117@POR137POR135@UTAH119todayUTAH114@POR124Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
POR -6.5
Half-pt below key 7
Total
236.5
High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg
Moneyline
POR-23070%UTAH+19034%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
6.5
0.0 since open
Total
236.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
POR beat UTAH 135-119. J. Holiday paced them with 31 PTS, 9 REB, 7 AST. POR outscored the other side 40-23 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
UTAH vs POR
Starters vs bench
production by unitPORstarters 70% of ptsStarters(5)
94 PTS · 42 REB · 18 AST
GS 90
Bench(7)
41 PTS · 10 REB · 8 AST
GS 23
UTAHstarters 69% of ptsStarters(5)
82 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST
GS 61
Bench(5)
37 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST
GS 34
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKyle Filipowski · makes free throw 1 of 2
Kyle Filipowski · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)
Blake Hinson · makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Konchar assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 28 | 33 | 40 | 34 | 135 |
| UTAH | 31 | 32 | 23 | 33 | 119 |
Period scoring
POR won 3 · UTAH won 1
Q1
Clingan 7
Sensabaugh 7
Q2
Holiday 11
Sensabaugh 12
Q3
Holiday 9
Williams 24
Q4
Grant 7
Mykhailiuk 14
Shooting comparison
51%
46-90
FG
48%
42-87
39%
18-46
3PT
37%
14-38
76%
25-33
FT
72%
21-29
Play-by-play · 520 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 135·UTAH 119
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 135·UTAH 119
- Q4·10.7
shot clock turnover
POR 135·UTAH 119
- Q4·34.8
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 1
POR 135·UTAH 119
- Q4·34.8
Javonte Cooke shooting foul
POR 135·UTAH 118
- Q4·34.8
Brice Sensabaugh makes 4-foot pullup jump shot
POR 135·UTAH 118
- Q4·50.6
Cody Williams enters the game for Isaiah Collier
·
POR 135·UTAH 116
- Q4·50.6
Sidy Cissoko makes free throw 1 of 1
POR 135·UTAH 116
- Q4·50.6
Yang Hansen enters the game for Toumani Camara
·
POR 134·UTAH 116
- Q4·50.6
Blake Wesley enters the game for Vit Krejci
·
POR 134·UTAH 116
- Q4·50.6
Rayan Rupert enters the game for Jerami Grant
·
POR 134·UTAH 116
- Q4·50.6
Javonte Cooke enters the game for Jrue Holiday
·
POR 134·UTAH 116
- Q4·50.6
Isaiah Collier shooting foul
POR 134·UTAH 116
- Q4·50.6
Sidy Cissoko makes running layup (Toumani Camara assists)
·
POR 134·UTAH 116
- Q4·55.6
Brice Sensabaugh lost ball turnover (Jerami Grant steals)
·
POR 132·UTAH 116
- Q4·1:07
Jrue Holiday makes 16-foot pullup jump shot
POR 132·UTAH 116
- Q4·1:25
Ace Bailey traveling turnover
POR 130·UTAH 116
- Q4·1:42
Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
POR 130·UTAH 116
- Q4·2:04
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
POR 127·UTAH 116
- Q4·2:06
Brice Sensabaugh misses free throw 2 of 2
POR 127·UTAH 116
−0.8pp
- Q4·2:06
Brice Sensabaugh makes free throw 1 of 2
POR 127·UTAH 116
- Q4·2:06
Ace Bailey enters the game for Kyle Filipowski
·
POR 127·UTAH 115
- Q4·2:06
Jazz Full timeout
POR 127·UTAH 115
- Q4·2:06
Sidy Cissoko shooting foul
POR 127·UTAH 115
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:23
Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)
·
POR 127·UTAH 115
−0.9pp
- Q4·2:27
Sidy Cissoko offensive rebound
POR 124·UTAH 115
−0.9pp
- Q4·2:30
Vit Krejci misses 26-foot three point jumper
POR 124·UTAH 115
+0.6pp
- Q4·2:46
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
POR 124·UTAH 115
- Q4·2:48
Toumani Camara blocks Isaiah Collier 's 5-foot driving layup
·
POR 124·UTAH 115
−1pp
- Q4·2:58
Jrue Holiday makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Toumani Camara assists)
·
POR 124·UTAH 115
−2pp
Betting line
POR -6.5·O/U 236.5·POR -230/UTAH +190
Recap · NBA
ortland Trail Blazers went into Utah Jazz and beat them, 135–119.
POR -6.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 17.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort- Jrue HolidayPOR · GTOUCHES84.698
Blake HinsonUTAH · FTS%68.497
Donovan ClinganPOR · CCONT7.694
Isaiah CollierUTAH · GDRIVES11.592
Toumani CamaraPOR · FCONT6.489
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · POR favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
UTAH vs POR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
170
projections · 145 high confidence
Points
- Deni AvdijaPOR25.3± 7.7high
- Lauri MarkkanenUTAH24.2± 5.0high
- Keyonte GeorgeUTAH21.4± 8.8high
Rebounds
- Jusuf NurkicUTAH11.4± 4.1high
- Walker KesslerUTAH10.7± 2.2low
- Donovan ClinganPOR10.3± 2.7high
Assists
- Ja MorantPOR8.1± 3.9high
- Isaiah CollierUTAH6.6± 2.5high
- Kennedy ChandlerUTAH6.5± 2.2medium
Blocks
- Walker KesslerUTAH1.8± 2.5low
- Donovan ClinganPOR1.5± 1.2high
- Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH1.3± 1.3high
Steals
- Bez MbengUTAH2.5± 1.7medium
- John KoncharUTAH1.9± 1.7high
- Matisse ThybullePOR1.7± 1.8high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
POR
league avg
UTAH
53.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶53.6%
45.1%
FG%
47.0
▶46.7%
114.6
PPG
114.9
▶117.6
25.0
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.6
16.2
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶15.0