MIL
23-30
OKC
42-14
MIL · top performer
Ousmane Dieng
F · #21
19
Pts
11
Reb
6
Ast
OKC · top performer
Chet Holmgren
C · #7
16
Pts
13
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 28pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:03
NBA · Milwaukee Bucks at Oklahoma City Thunder · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 29 | 14 | 5-15 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 36 | 19 | 7-12 | 3-6 | 2-4 | +16 | 11 | 6 | |
| 20 | 8 | 4-5 | — | — | +6 | 5 | 0 | |
| 32 | 12 | 6-15 | 0-1 | — | +12 | 3 | 7 | |
| 38 | 17 | 6-14 | 5-11 | — | +17 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 29 | 15 | 6-11 | 3-6 | — | +19 | 12 | 3 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 11 | 4-6 | 3-5 | — | +4 | 7 | 2 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-1 | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 12 | 5-13 | 1-6 | 1-1 | +15 | 1 | 2 | |
| 6 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 110 | 44-95 | 17-42 | 5-7 | 49 | 25 | ||
| DNP: M. Turner, G. Harris | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 27 | 16 | 5-12 | 0-4 | 6-6 | -8 | 13 | 4 | |
| 23 | 9 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -8 | 8 | 1 | |
| 29 | 17 | 5-11 | 4-9 | 3-3 | -14 | 4 | 2 | |
| 28 | 9 | 4-12 | 1-6 | — | -14 | 2 | 1 | |
| 28 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-2 | 1-2 | -3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | — | +3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-1 | -19 | 2 | 3 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | — | +2 | 5 | 2 | |
| 20 | 9 | 3-6 | 3-4 | — | -8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 20 | 5 | 2-6 | 1-2 | — | -8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 24 | 13 | 3-9 | 2-6 | 5-6 | -3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 12 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | -5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Team | 93 | 31-83 | 15-45 | 16-20 | 47 | 22 | ||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
37
25
Ast
22
Team stats
MIL
Away
Stat
OKC
Home
44-95
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
31-83
46
FG %
37
17-42
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
15-45
5-7
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
16-20
25
Assists
22
10
Turnovers
16
Season series
Series tied 1-1
OKC122@MIL102MIL110@OKC93todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -13.5
Between 10 and —
Total
214.5
Defensive · -11.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MIL+45518%OKC-62586%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
13.5
0.0 since open
Total
214.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIL beat OKC 110-93. O. Dieng led with 19 PTS, 11 REB, 6 AST. Chet Holmgren's play in the 3rd quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
OKC vs MIL
Starters vs bench
production by unitMILstarters 64% of ptsStarters(5)
70 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST
GS 60
Bench(6)
40 PTS · 24 REB · 7 AST
GS 35
OKCstarters 58% of ptsStarters(5)
54 PTS · 29 REB · 11 AST
GS 44
Bench(7)
39 PTS · 18 REB · 11 AST
GS 24
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactKyle Kuzma · misses driving layup
Chet Holmgren · misses 27-foot three point jumper
Chet Holmgren · misses 1-foot tip shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 30 | 37 | 22 | 21 | 110 |
| OKC | 25 | 30 | 18 | 20 | 93 |
Period scoring
MIL won 4 · OKC won 0
Q1
Green 6
Joe 11
Q2
Kuzma 14
Holmgren 11
Q3
Dieng 8
Dort 7
Q4
Green 5
Williams 14
Shooting comparison
46%
44-95
FG
37%
31-83
40%
17-42
3PT
33%
15-45
71%
5-7
FT
80%
16-20
Play-by-play · 442 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 110·OKC 93
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 110·OKC 93
- Q4·2.0
shot clock turnover
MIL 110·OKC 93
- Q4·16.4
Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound
MIL 110·OKC 93
- Q4·20.7
Gary Trent Jr. misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIL 110·OKC 93
- Q4·41.2
Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 110·OKC 93
- Q4·41.2
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 110·OKC 92
- Q4·41.2
Andre Jackson Jr. shooting foul
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·45.8
Jared McCain defensive rebound
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·47.4
Gary Trent Jr. misses driving floating jump shot
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:00
Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:02
Buddy Boeheim misses running pullup jump shot
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:05
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:07
Ousmane Dieng misses 10-foot two point shot
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:24
Bucks defensive team rebound
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:25
Brooks Barnhizer misses 26-foot three point jumper
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:40
Brooks Barnhizer defensive rebound
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:44
Gary Trent Jr. misses 18-foot step back jumpshot
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:58
Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2
MIL 110·OKC 91
- Q4·1:58
Jared McCain makes free throw 1 of 2
MIL 110·OKC 90
- Q4·1:58
Ousmane Dieng shooting foul
MIL 110·OKC 89
- Q4·2:10
Andre Jackson Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover
MIL 110·OKC 89
- Q4·2:20
Buddy Boeheim makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brooks Barnhizer assists)
·
MIL 110·OKC 89
- Q4·2:32
Ousmane Dieng makes driving layup
MIL 110·OKC 86
- Q4·2:43
Nikola Topic steps out of bounds turnover
MIL 108·OKC 86
- Q4·2:56
Pete Nance offensive foul turnover
MIL 108·OKC 86
- Q4·2:56
Pete Nance offensive foul
MIL 108·OKC 86
- Q4·3:10
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for AJ Green
·
MIL 108·OKC 86
- Q4·3:10
Pete Nance enters the game for Bobby Portis
·
MIL 108·OKC 86
- Q4·3:10
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Kevin Porter Jr.
·
MIL 108·OKC 86
Betting line
OKC -13.5·O/U 214.5·MIL +455/OKC -625
Recap · NBA
ilwaukee Bucks went into Oklahoma City Thunder and beat them, 110–93.
MIL +13.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 214.5 by 11.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Jericho SimsMIL · CTS%77.299+
Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+- Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · GDRIVES16.799
Pete NanceMIL · FTS%63.990
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MIL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
OKC vs MIL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
135
projections · 125 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL19.5± 7.1high
- Tyler HerroMIL19.2± 8.0high
Rebounds
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
- Chet HolmgrenOKC8.0± 3.0high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL5.1± 2.3high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL6.9± 2.8high
- Ryan RollinsMIL5.5± 1.9high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC0.8± 0.8high
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL0.6± 0.7high
Steals
- Kevin Porter Jr.MIL2.1± 1.4high
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Ryan RollinsMIL1.5± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MIL
league avg
OKC
56.5%
Effective FG%
54.4
55.9%
47.7%
FG%
47.0
48.2%
110.6
PPG
114.9
▶118.5
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.8
14.5
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶11.9