NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+6DEN

MEM

20-33

116122

DEN

35-20

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriesDEN leads series 2-0VegasDEN -14.5

MEM · top performer

GG Jackson

F · #45

18.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DEN · top performer

Nikola Jokic

C · #15

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMEM ↔ DEN

Biggest swing: 13pp · 4th Quarter · 3:50

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. AndersonF · #5	18	8	4-5	—	—	+3	3	1
G. JacksonF · #45	28	21	6-12	3-5	6-7	+3	5	3
J. WellsF · #0	24	17	7-9	2-3	1-1	+7	1	0
T. JeromeG · #2	21	19	4-11	3-7	8-9	+3	1	7
J. MashackG · #21	22	9	4-11	1-5	—	+2	3	2
Bench
O. ProsperF · #18	23	14	6-7	2-3	—	-18	5	0
T. HendricksF · #22	20	10	4-8	2-4	—	-5	2	1
L. LoveringC · #34	18	3	1-2	—	1-2	-3	4	0
K. Caldwell-PopeG · #3	26	5	2-8	1-5	—	-8	3	2
S. Pippen Jr.G · #1	18	8	3-10	1-4	1-2	-7	0	3
C. SpencerG · #24	22	2	1-8	0-3	—	-7	2	9
Team		116	42-91	15-39	17-21		29	28
DNP: W. Clayton Jr.

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. JohnsonF · #23	29	5	2-7	1-3	—	-6	4	1
N. JokicC · #15	34	26	8-17	—	10-14	+8	15	11
J. MurrayG · #27	33	23	7-18	1-5	8-8	0	6	7
C. BraunG · #0	39	14	6-8	—	2-2	+12	7	6
J. StrawtherG · #3	25	11	5-9	1-4	—	-9	1	2
Bench
J. ValanciunasC · #17	14	9	3-5	—	3-4	0	6	0
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	28	21	7-8	4-5	3-4	+12	3	0
B. BrownG · #11	29	10	4-6	2-3	—	+4	3	2
J. PickettG · #24	9	3	1-3	1-2	—	+9	1	0
Team		122	43-81	10-22	26-32		46	29
DNP: Z. Nnaji, D. Holmes II, P. Watson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MEM

Away

Stat

DEN

Home

42-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-81

FG %

15-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-22

17-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DEN leads series 2-0

Nov 25

DEN125@

MEM115

Jan 25

DEN0@

MEM0

Feb 12

MEM116@

DEN122today

Mar 19

DEN118@

MEM125

Apr 9

MEM119@

DEN136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DEN -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

239.5

High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MEM+49017%

DEN-67587%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DEN -14.5↗SpreadBet DEN -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

239.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DEN beat MEM 122-116. N. Jokic stuffed the line with 26 PTS, 15 REB, and 11 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DEN vs MEM

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MEMstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 13 REB · 13 AST

GS 64

Bench(6)

42 PTS · 16 REB · 15 AST

GS 31

DENstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 33 REB · 27 AST

GS 63

Bench(4)

43 PTS · 13 REB · 2 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN4th Quarter · 4:45 · 105-109

+11pp→ 79% WP

Bruce Brown · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)

MEM4th Quarter · 3:50 · 109-109

+13pp→ 40% WP

Taylor Hendricks · makes driving layup (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 9.4 · 116-120

+10pp→ 97% WP

Lawson Lovering · misses free throw 2 of 2

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MEM	28	26	27	35	116
DEN	30	30	33	29	122

Period scoring

MEM won 1 · DEN won 3

Hendricks 8

Jokic 9

Jerome 8

Jr. 9

Jackson 12

Murray 11

Wells 5

Jokic 7

MEM

DEN

Shooting comparison

MEM

DEN

46%

42-91

53%

43-81

38%

15-39

3PT

45%

10-22

81%

17-21

81%

26-32

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 116·DEN 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 116·DEN 122
Q4·0.1
Grizzlies offensive team rebound
MEM 116·DEN 122
Q4·1.1
GG Jackson misses tip shot
MEM 116·DEN 122
Q4·2.0
GG Jackson offensive rebound
MEM 116·DEN 122
Q4·2.0
Scotty Pippen Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
MEM 116·DEN 122
+0.6pp
Q4·4.9
Cam Spencer enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper
·
MEM 116·DEN 122
Q4·4.9
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 116·DEN 122
Q4·4.9
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 116·DEN 122
Q4·4.9
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas
·
MEM 116·DEN 121
Q4·4.9
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 116·DEN 121
Q4·4.9
Olivier-Maxence Prosper personal take foul
MEM 116·DEN 120
+2pp
Q4·7.6
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
MEM 116·DEN 120
+0.6pp
Q4·9.4
Lawson Lovering misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
MEM 116·DEN 120
+10pp
Q4·9.4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Cam Spencer
·
MEM 116·DEN 120
Q4·9.4
Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Tim Hardaway Jr.
·
MEM 116·DEN 120
Q4·9.4
Lawson Lovering makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 116·DEN 120
−2pp
Q4·9.4
Nikola Jokic personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MEM 115·DEN 120
−7pp
Q4·11.7
Cam Spencer enters the game for Olivier-Maxence Prosper
·
MEM 115·DEN 120
Q4·11.7
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 115·DEN 120
Q4·11.7
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 115·DEN 120
−2pp
Q4·11.7
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 115·DEN 119
+0.7pp
Q4·11.7
Scotty Pippen Jr. personal take foulBIG MOMENT
MEM 115·DEN 118
+6pp
Q4·14.6
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
MEM 115·DEN 118
+3pp
Q4·17.6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
MEM 115·DEN 118
+8pp
Q4·23.8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope defensive rebound
MEM 115·DEN 118
−2pp
Q4·26.2
Jamal Murray misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
MEM 115·DEN 118
−5pp
Q4·44.2
Nuggets defensive team rebound
MEM 115·DEN 118
Q4·44.2
Lawson Lovering vs. Nikola Jokic (Jamal Murray gains possession)
· ·
MEM 115·DEN 118
+2pp
Q4·44.2
GG Jackson misses tip shotBIG MOMENT
MEM 115·DEN 118
+7pp

Betting line

DEN -14.5·O/U 239.5·MEM +490/DEN -675

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

enver Nuggets held off Memphis Grizzlies, 122–116.

MEM +14.5 cashed (DEN won by 6). Total stayed UNDER 239.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Ty JeromeMEM · G
USG%33.999
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · F
TS%66.293
Jahmai MashackMEM · G
DEFL393

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MEM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DEN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DEN vs MEM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high
Ty JeromeMEM
18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Zach EdeyMEM
11.3± 7.8low
Santi AldamaMEM
6.7± 2.1high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high
Ty JeromeMEM
5.4± 2.7medium

Blocks

Zach EdeyMEM
1.9± 2.3low
Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
GG JacksonMEM
0.9± 0.7high

Steals

Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
1.9± 2.1low
Taylor HendricksMEM
1.5± 2.0high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MEM

league avg

DEN

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.2%

45.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.2%

114.7

PPG

114.9

▶

121.1

27.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.7

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR