NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+28UTAH

SAC

12-44

93121

UTAH

18-37

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriesUTAH leads series 2-1VegasUTAH -5.5

SAC · top performer

Devin Carter

G · #22

12.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

UTAH · top performer

Jaren Jackson Jr.

F · #20

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSAC ↔ UTAH

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 8:54

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	16	6	3-5	—	—	-9	5	1
M. RaynaudC · #42	28	7	3-7	0-1	1-1	-22	4	1
D. DeRozanG · #10	29	20	7-19	1-5	5-5	-21	3	1
D. CarterG · #22	30	19	4-13	1-6	10-12	-13	5	4
N. CliffordG · #5	38	6	1-15	0-5	4-5	-26	8	6
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	19	14	5-9	4-8	—	-6	0	0
D. CardwellC · #32	27	6	2-5	—	2-4	-15	10	3
D. PlowdenG · #29	33	9	3-12	1-7	2-2	-20	6	4
I. StevensG · #24	20	6	3-5	0-1	—	-8	1	4
Team		93	31-90	7-33	24-29		42	24
DNP: D. Sabonis, D. Eubanks, D. Hunter

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. MarkkanenF · #23	21	19	7-14	1-4	4-4	+15	7	3
J. Jackson Jr.F · #20	22	23	8-13	1-3	6-7	+27	4	2
J. NurkicC · #30	26	8	4-6	0-1	—	+7	9	4
I. CollierG · #8	27	12	5-8	2-3	—	+25	1	14
A. BaileyG · #19	31	13	5-9	3-6	—	+7	4	4
Bench
K. LoveF · #42	16	5	2-5	1-3	—	+24	9	1
K. FilipowskiF · #22	8	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	-6	2	1
C. WilliamsF · #5	25	9	4-6	1-2	—	+24	5	2
B. SensabaughF · #28	24	19	8-14	3-7	—	+17	2	0
J. KoncharG · #55	19	0	0-2	0-2	—	-3	1	0
V. Williams Jr.G · #0	21	9	3-6	3-5	—	+3	8	3
Team		121	47-86	15-37	12-13		52	34
DNP: B. Hinson, O. Tshiebwe, S. Mykhailiuk, E. Harkless

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

SAC

Away

Stat

UTAH

Home

31-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-86

FG %

7-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-37

24-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

12-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

UTAH leads series 2-1

Oct 25

UTAH104@

SAC105

Nov 29

SAC119@

UTAH128

Feb 12

SAC93@

UTAH121today

Mar 16

UTAH111@

SAC116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTAH -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SAC+17037%

UTAH-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTAH -5.5↗SpreadBet UTAH -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTAH beat SAC 121-93. J. Jackson Jr. led with 23 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST. UTAH outscored the other side 39-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

UTAH vs SAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SACstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST

GS 39

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 17 REB · 11 AST

GS 31

UTAHstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 25 REB · 27 AST

GS 72

Bench(6)

46 PTS · 27 REB · 7 AST

GS 36

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	20	24	22	27	93
UTAH	39	32	29	21	121

Period scoring

SAC won 1 · UTAH won 3

DeRozan 8

Jr. 12

Carter 10

Collier 7

DeRozan 6

Sensabaugh 8

McDermott 8

Bailey 7

SAC

UTAH

Shooting comparison

SAC

UTAH

34%

31-90

55%

47-86

21%

7-33

3PT

41%

15-37

83%

24-29

92%

12-13

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SAC 93·UTAH 121
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SAC 93·UTAH 121
Q4·17.1
shot clock turnover
SAC 93·UTAH 121
Q4·41.2
Dylan Cardwell makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 93·UTAH 121
Q4·41.2
Kings offensive team rebound
SAC 92·UTAH 121
Q4·41.2
Dylan Cardwell misses free throw 1 of 2
SAC 92·UTAH 121
Q4·41.2
Cody Williams shooting foul
SAC 92·UTAH 121
Q4·48.6
Vince Williams Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Cody Williams assists)
·
SAC 92·UTAH 121
Q4·1:06
Isaiah Stevens makes 8-foot jumper (Daeqwon Plowden assists)
·
SAC 92·UTAH 118
Q4·1:07
Daeqwon Plowden offensive rebound
SAC 90·UTAH 118
Q4·1:09
Devin Carter misses 28-foot three point jumper
SAC 90·UTAH 118
Q4·1:21
Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 90·UTAH 118
Q4·1:21
Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 90·UTAH 117
Q4·1:21
Daeqwon Plowden shooting foul
SAC 90·UTAH 116
Q4·1:25
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
SAC 90·UTAH 116
Q4·1:26
Devin Carter misses driving floating jump shot
SAC 90·UTAH 116
Q4·1:49
Jazz delay of game violation
SAC 90·UTAH 116
Q4·1:49
Kyle Filipowski offensive foul turnover
SAC 90·UTAH 116
Q4·1:49
Kyle Filipowski offensive foul
SAC 90·UTAH 116
Q4·2:02
Daeqwon Plowden makes 3-foot dunk (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SAC 90·UTAH 116
Q4·2:14
Kyle Filipowski makes layup
SAC 88·UTAH 116
Q4·2:32
Devin Carter makes free throw 2 of 2
SAC 88·UTAH 114
Q4·2:32
Devin Carter makes free throw 1 of 2
SAC 87·UTAH 114
Q4·2:32
John Konchar shooting foul
SAC 86·UTAH 114
Q4·2:40
Kyle Filipowski personal foul
SAC 86·UTAH 114
Q4·2:40
Kyle Filipowski lost ball turnover (Nique Clifford steals)
·
SAC 86·UTAH 114
Q4·3:04
Dylan Cardwell makes 1-foot dunk (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SAC 86·UTAH 114
Q4·3:24
Ace Bailey makes 25-foot three pointer (Kyle Filipowski assists)
·
SAC 84·UTAH 114
Q4·3:30
Ace Bailey enters the game for Brice Sensabaugh
·
SAC 84·UTAH 111
Q4·3:37
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
SAC 84·UTAH 111

Betting line

UTAH -5.5·O/U 229.5·SAC +170/UTAH -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tah Jazz held off Sacramento Kings, 121–93. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

UTAH -5.5 cashed (won by 28). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH · F
CONT9.197
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
Dylan CardwellSAC · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(UTAH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

UTAH vs SAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Oscar TshiebweUTAH
8.5± 5.5high

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Jusuf NurkicUTAH
5.5± 4.5high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

SAC

league avg

UTAH

52.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.6%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

111.0

PPG

114.9

▶

117.6

25.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

13.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR