NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12MIA

MIA

29-27

123111

15-41

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriesMIA wins series 2-0VegasNO -1.5

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

21.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NO · top performer

Zion Williamson

F · #1

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ NO

Biggest swing: 18pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:06

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. FontecchioF · #0	27	15	5-14	4-12	1-1	+23	4	1
M. GardnerF · #15	23	8	3-7	2-5	—	+11	10	3
B. AdebayoC · #13	37	27	6-19	2-9	13-17	+15	14	4
K. WareC · #7	28	16	7-15	2-3	—	+18	12	0
D. MitchellG · #45	28	9	3-10	2-6	1-2	+18	1	5
Bench
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	35	23	10-22	0-5	3-4	0	8	4
N. JovicF · #5	18	8	3-4	1-2	1-2	-10	1	0
D. SmithG · #12	20	6	2-4	—	2-3	-12	3	4
K. JakucionisG · #25	25	11	3-7	1-5	4-4	-3	3	4
Team		123	42-102	14-47	25-33		56	25
DNP: A. Wiggins, K. Johnson, V. Goldin, J. Young

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	33	7	3-6	1-3	—	-14	4	2
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	25	12-19	—	1-2	-18	4	3
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	27	19	7-15	2-8	3-3	-13	4	6
D. QueenC · #22	31	12	4-8	1-2	3-4	-17	5	0
S. BeyG · #41	36	14	4-15	4-9	2-2	-21	9	4
Bench
K. LooneyF · #55	14	6	3-5	—	—	+4	9	0
K. MatkovicF · #17	13	3	1-1	1-1	—	+10	0	1
B. McGowensG · #11	21	12	2-5	1-3	7-8	+1	1	3
J. FearsG · #0	31	13	6-18	1-5	—	+8	10	8
Team		111	42-92	11-31	16-19		46	27
DNP: D. Jordan, Y. Missi, J. Poole, J. Hawkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

Home

42-102

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-92

FG %

14-47

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-31

25-33

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA wins series 2-0

Jan 4

NO106@

MIA125

Feb 12

MIA123@

NO111today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+10549%

NO-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -1.5↗SpreadBet NO -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat NO 123-111. B. Adebayo paced them with 27 PTS, 14 REB, 4 AST. MIA outscored the other side 38-30 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NO vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

75 PTS · 41 REB · 13 AST

GS 65

Bench(4)

48 PTS · 15 REB · 12 AST

GS 42

NOstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 26 REB · 15 AST

GS 49

Bench(4)

34 PTS · 20 REB · 12 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO3rd Quarter · 7:06 · 71-66

+18pp→ 29% WP

Kel'el Ware · misses two point shot

NO3rd Quarter · 4:32 · 82-72

+12pp→ 12% WP

Jeremiah Fears · bad pass turnover (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)

MIA4th Quarter · 54.4 · 118-111

+8pp→ 96% WP

Simone Fontecchio · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	31	27	38	27	123
NO	25	30	30	26	111

Period scoring

MIA won 3 · NO won 1

Ware 7

III 7

Adebayo 8

Williamson 10

Ware 7

Williamson 7

Adebayo 7

Matkovic 23

MIA

Shooting comparison

MIA

41%

42-102

46%

42-92

30%

14-47

3PT

35%

11-31

76%

25-33

84%

16-19

Play-by-play · 498 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 123·NO 111
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 123·NO 111
Q4·4.5
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 123·NO 111
Q4·4.5
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 122·NO 111
Q4·4.5
Saddiq Bey personal foul
MIA 121·NO 111
Q4·6.5
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
MIA 121·NO 111
Q4·8.3
Jeremiah Fears misses tip shot
MIA 121·NO 111
Q4·8.3
Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound
MIA 121·NO 111
Q4·9.5
Derik Queen misses driving layup
MIA 121·NO 111
Q4·19.3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes running dunk (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)
·
MIA 121·NO 111
Q4·20.4
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
MIA 119·NO 111
Q4·23.5
Saddiq Bey misses driving layup
MIA 119·NO 111
−0.9pp
Q4·33.7
Davion Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 119·NO 111
Q4·33.7
Heat offensive team rebound
MIA 118·NO 111
Q4·33.7
Davion Mitchell misses free throw 1 of 2
MIA 118·NO 111
Q4·33.7
Jeremiah Fears personal foul
MIA 118·NO 111
−1pp
Q4·44.0
Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound
MIA 118·NO 111
−0.6pp
Q4·45.7
Jeremiah Fears misses tip shot
MIA 118·NO 111
−1pp
Q4·45.7
Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound
MIA 118·NO 111
+1pp
Q4·47.8
Herbert Jones misses driving floating jump shot
MIA 118·NO 111
−2pp
Q4·53.8
Pelicans Full timeout
MIA 118·NO 111
Q4·54.4
Simone Fontecchio makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)BIG MOMENT
·
MIA 118·NO 111
−8pp
Q4·1:10
Zion Williamson makes tip shot
MIA 115·NO 111
+4pp
Q4·1:10
Zion Williamson offensive rebound
MIA 115·NO 109
+2pp
Q4·1:12
Zion Williamson misses driving floating jump shot
MIA 115·NO 109
−3pp
Q4·1:26
Bam Adebayo offensive foul turnover
MIA 115·NO 109
Q4·1:26
Bam Adebayo offensive foul
MIA 115·NO 109
+3pp
Q4·1:41
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 115·NO 109
−3pp
Q4·1:41
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 115·NO 108
+0.7pp
Q4·1:41
Jaime Jaquez Jr. shooting foul
MIA 115·NO 107
+5pp

Betting line

NO -1.5·O/U 233.5·MIA +105/NO -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into New Orleans Pelicans and beat them, 123–111.

MIA +1.5 cashed (NO lost outright). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Dru SmithMIA · G
DEFL2.992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NO win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NO vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high
Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.7%

46.8%

FG%

47.0

46.6%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

115.5

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR