NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+19BOS

CHI

24-31

105124

BOS

35-19

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriesBOS wins series 2-1VegasBOS -13.5

CHI · top performer

Patrick Williams

F · #44

14.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ BOS

Biggest swing: 16pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:56

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	25	13	5-12	2-5	1-2	-22	2	2
P. WilliamsF · #44	35	12	5-10	2-5	—	-16	3	6
M. BuzelisF · #14	29	15	6-13	3-7	—	-9	8	4
C. SextonG · #2	32	15	6-13	1-4	2-2	-4	3	1
A. SimonsG · #22	28	7	3-9	1-6	—	-13	5	1
Bench
L. MillerF · #11	7	5	2-2	—	1-1	+8	3	0
N. RichardsC · #13	21	5	1-5	1-1	2-2	-15	4	0
J. IveyG · #31	29	10	4-9	1-5	1-1	-14	3	4
R. DillinghamG · #7	30	16	6-12	0-2	4-5	-17	1	7
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		105	41-89	12-36	11-13		34	25
DNP: T. Jones, J. Giddey

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	22	12	4-9	4-7	—	+8	2	0
N. QuetaC · #88	15	8	4-4	—	—	+1	6	1
D. WhiteG · #9	30	9	3-9	2-5	1-2	+22	4	9
J. BrownG · #7	29	24	9-20	2-9	4-4	+15	4	4
B. ScheiermanG · #55	24	10	4-7	2-5	—	-7	5	1
Bench
N. VucevicC · #4	26	19	7-12	4-5	1-2	+26	11	3
L. GarzaC · #52	7	0	0-1	—	0-2	-8	0	0
P. PritchardG · #11	34	26	11-18	3-8	1-2	+13	5	8
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	16	0	0-2	0-2	—	+5	3	1
J. WalshG · #27	29	16	7-12	1-4	1-1	+15	6	2
H. GonzalezG · #28	9	0	0-1	—	—	+5	2	0
Team		124	49-95	18-45	8-13		48	29
DNP: A. Williams

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

41-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

49-95

FG %

12-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-45

11-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 2-1

Jan 6

CHI101@

BOS115

Jan 25

BOS111@

CHI114

Feb 12

CHI105@

BOS124today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+50017%

BOS-70088%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -13.5↗SpreadBet BOS -13.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat CHI 124-105. P. Pritchard paced them with 26 PTS, 5 REB, 8 AST. BOS outscored the other side 36-17 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 46

Bench(5)

36 PTS · 11 REB · 11 AST

GS 30

BOSstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

63 PTS · 21 REB · 15 AST

GS 56

Bench(6)

61 PTS · 27 REB · 14 AST

GS 54

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS2nd Quarter · 9:56 · 27-38

+16pp→ 94% WP

Anfernee Simons · lost ball turnover (Jordan Walsh steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	27	17	26	35	105
BOS	36	36	26	26	124

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · BOS won 2

Williams 6

Brown 12

Sexton 5

Brown 17

Yabusele 10

Scheierman 8

Dillingham 7

Pritchard 10

CHI

BOS

Shooting comparison

CHI

BOS

46%

41-89

52%

49-95

33%

12-36

3PT

40%

18-45

85%

11-13

62%

8-13

Play-by-play · 448 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 105·BOS 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 105·BOS 124
Q4·3.6
Payton Pritchard lost ball turnover (Collin Sexton steals)
·
CHI 105·BOS 124
Q4·28.3
Collin Sexton makes 15-foot driving floating jump shot (Jaden Ivey assists)
·
CHI 105·BOS 124
Q4·41.0
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 103·BOS 124
Q4·41.0
Jordan Walsh blocks Collin Sexton 's 10-foot driving layup
·
CHI 103·BOS 124
Q4·49.7
Baylor Scheierman makes 11-foot fade away jump shot (Payton Pritchard assists)
·
CHI 103·BOS 124
Q4·1:08
Lachlan Olbrich makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)
·
CHI 103·BOS 122
Q4·1:16
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
CHI 100·BOS 122
Q4·1:18
Payton Pritchard misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 100·BOS 122
Q4·1:18
Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 100·BOS 122
Q4·1:18
Rob Dillingham personal foul
CHI 100·BOS 121
Q4·1:32
Leonard Miller makes free throw 1 of 1
CHI 100·BOS 121
Q4·1:32
Jordan Walsh shooting foul
CHI 99·BOS 121
Q4·1:32
Leonard Miller makes 6-foot layup (Rob Dillingham assists)
·
CHI 99·BOS 121
Q4·1:38
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
CHI 97·BOS 121
Q4·1:39
Luka Garza misses 10-foot two point shot
CHI 97·BOS 121
Q4·2:01
Rob Dillingham makes 10-foot two point shot
CHI 97·BOS 121
Q4·2:16
Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)
·
CHI 95·BOS 121
Q4·2:25
Baylor Scheierman defensive rebound
CHI 95·BOS 118
Q4·2:26
Collin Sexton misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 95·BOS 118
Q4·2:34
Baylor Scheierman personal foul
CHI 95·BOS 118
Q4·2:42
Payton Pritchard makes 13-foot floating jump shot
CHI 95·BOS 118
Q4·3:05
Rob Dillingham makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 95·BOS 116
Q4·3:05
Rob Dillingham makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 94·BOS 116
Q4·3:05
Jordan Walsh shooting foul
CHI 93·BOS 116
Q4·3:15
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
CHI 93·BOS 116
Q4·3:17
Luka Garza misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 93·BOS 116
Q4·3:17
Celtics offensive team rebound
CHI 93·BOS 116
Q4·3:17
Luka Garza misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 93·BOS 116

Betting line

BOS -13.5·O/U 227.5·CHI +500/BOS -700

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Chicago Bulls, 124–105.

BOS -13.5 cashed (won by 19). Total cleared the 227.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jaylen BrownBOS · G
USG%35.699+
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Payton PritchardBOS · G
TOUCHES65.689

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

BOS

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

46.5%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR