NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CHA

ATL

26-30

107110

CHA

26-29

NBAWed, Feb 11FinalSeriesCHA wins series 3-1VegasCHA -2.5

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Brandon Miller

F · #24

17.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 18pp · 4th Quarter · 1.1

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	29	18	5-9	3-5	5-5	+4	3	0
J. JohnsonF · #1	34	19	7-15	1-4	4-5	-5	13	9
Z. RisacherF · #10	23	5	2-6	1-3	0-2	-10	3	1
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	40	10	2-13	1-7	5-5	+8	3	4
D. DanielsG · #5	25	21	9-12	0-1	3-4	-10	3	4
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	23	2	0-3	0-2	2-2	-2	3	2
M. GueyeF · #18	9	6	2-2	2-2	—	+2	3	0
A. NewellF · #14	5	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	1	0
J. LandaleC · #31	19	9	4-6	1-3	0-2	-7	3	0
C. McCollumG · #3	32	17	6-17	1-8	4-5	+7	6	8
Team		107	37-84	10-36	23-30		41	28
DNP: B. Hield, G. Vincent, K. Wallace

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. WilliamsF · #2	32	7	1-9	0-6	5-7	-3	8	5
B. MillerF · #24	36	31	10-26	5-14	6-6	+3	9	2
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	24	5	2-2	—	1-2	+4	6	1
L. BallG · #1	32	24	8-23	7-18	1-1	+9	4	6
K. KnueppelG · #7	30	18	5-12	4-7	4-4	-6	6	4
Bench
X. TillmanF · #26	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
T. SalaunF · #31	15	3	0-1	0-1	3-4	+8	4	0
P. HallC · #16	17	11	3-7	—	5-5	+1	10	0
J. GreenG · #10	19	3	1-2	1-1	—	+9	0	0
T. MannG · #23	16	5	2-4	1-2	—	-1	0	0
S. JamesG · #4	17	3	1-2	1-2	—	-7	3	3
Team		110	33-88	19-51	25-29		50	21
DNP: M. Bridges, M. Diabate, P. Connaughton

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

37-84

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-88

FG %

10-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-51

23-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

25-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA wins series 3-1

Nov 23

CHA110@

ATL113

Dec 19

ATL126@

CHA133

Feb 8

CHA126@

ATL119

Feb 12

ATL107@

CHA110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+11048%

CHA-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗SpreadBet CHA -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat ATL 110-107. B. Miller paced them with 31 PTS, 9 REB, 2 AST. ATL outscored the other side 32-21 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 25 REB · 18 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 16 REB · 10 AST

GS 25

CHAstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 33 REB · 18 AST

GS 61

Bench(6)

25 PTS · 17 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA1st Quarter · 9:24 · 4-8

+13pp→ 64% WP

Ryan Kalkbrenner · lost ball turnover (Zaccharie Risacher steals)

CHA4th Quarter · 20.8 · 107-108

+17pp→ 85% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · personal foul

CHA4th Quarter · 1.1 · 107-110

+18pp→ 99% WP

Brandon Miller · blocks Onyeka Okongwu 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	27	22	26	32	107
CHA	35	23	31	21	110

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · CHA won 3

Daniels 9

Hall 15

McCollum 7

Miller 10

Johnson 10

Ball 9

Gueye 6

Miller 8

ATL

CHA

Shooting comparison

ATL

CHA

44%

37-84

38%

33-88

28%

10-36

3PT

37%

19-51

77%

23-30

86%

25-29

Play-by-play · 512 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 107·CHA 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 107·CHA 110
+2pp
Q4·1.1
CJ McCollum offensive rebound
ATL 107·CHA 110
−0.7pp
Q4·1.1
Brandon Miller blocks Onyeka Okongwu 's 27-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 107·CHA 110
+19pp
Q4·19.4
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
ATL 107·CHA 110
−7pp
Q4·19.4
CJ McCollum enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye
·
ATL 107·CHA 109
Q4·19.4
Josh Green enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner
·
ATL 107·CHA 109
Q4·19.4
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
ATL 107·CHA 109
Q4·19.4
Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 107·CHA 109
+2pp
Q4·19.4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal foul
ATL 107·CHA 108
Q4·20.8
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 107·CHA 108
Q4·20.8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker personal foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 107·CHA 108
+17pp
Q4·28.7
Onyeka Okongwu out of bounds lost ball turnoverBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 107·CHA 108
+14pp
Q4·30.4
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
ATL 107·CHA 108
−3pp
Q4·32.5
LaMelo Ball misses 25-foot fade away jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 107·CHA 108
−8pp
Q4·59.6
Jalen Johnson makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
ATL 107·CHA 108
−8pp
Q4·1:05
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
ATL 105·CHA 108
−2pp
Q4·1:09
Onyeka Okongwu blocks Brandon Miller 's 8-foot driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
ATL 105·CHA 108
−6pp
Q4·1:21
Grant Williams offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
ATL 105·CHA 108
+6pp
Q4·1:23
LaMelo Ball misses 24-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
ATL 105·CHA 108
−6pp
Q4·1:39
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
ATL 105·CHA 108
+6pp
Q4·1:39
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
ATL 104·CHA 108
−7pp
Q4·1:39
Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 3
ATL 103·CHA 108
−1pp
Q4·1:39
Grant Williams shooting foulBIG MOMENT
ATL 102·CHA 108
−7pp
Q4·1:51
Brandon Miller out of bounds lost ball turnover
·
ATL 102·CHA 108
−5pp
Q4·2:07
Dyson Daniels makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Jalen Johnson assists)
·
ATL 102·CHA 108
−2pp
Q4·2:27
Hawks defensive team rebound
ATL 100·CHA 108
−0.5pp
Q4·2:27
Nickeil Alexander-Walker blocks Grant Williams 's 2-foot layup
·
ATL 100·CHA 108
+2pp
Q4·2:27
Hawks Full timeout
ATL 100·CHA 108
Q4·2:27
(02:27) [Hawks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Hawks] retain their timeout
ATL 100·CHA 108
−2pp

Betting line

CHA -2.5·O/U 235.5·ATL +110/CHA -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets held off Atlanta Hawks, 110–107. Decided by 3.

CHA -2.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

CHA

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.0%

47.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

115.8

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR