NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7CHA

CHA

25-28

126119

ATL

26-28

NBASat, Feb 7FinalSeriesCHA leads series 2-1VegasCHA -1.5

CHA · top performer

Miles Bridges

F · #0

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

29.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHA ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 41pp · 4th Quarter · 3:14

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	34	26	10-14	1-4	5-5	-1	6	5
M. DiabateF · #14	32	11	4-8	0-1	3-3	+2	15	2
B. MillerF · #24	35	16	5-19	3-8	3-3	+1	6	4
L. BallG · #1	31	19	7-20	2-8	3-3	-6	1	9
K. KnueppelG · #7	36	23	8-15	6-11	1-1	+12	8	4
Bench
G. WilliamsF · #2	16	11	4-4	2-2	1-1	+4	3	1
R. KalkbrennerC · #11	15	6	3-6	—	—	+7	5	0
J. GreenG · #10	13	8	3-4	2-3	—	-6	1	0
T. MannG · #23	10	3	1-2	1-1	—	+3	1	2
S. JamesG · #4	17	3	1-3	1-1	—	+19	3	4
Team		126	46-95	18-39	16-16		49	31
DNP: T. Salaun, C. White

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	31	16	6-11	4-7	—	+6	6	2
J. JohnsonF · #1	40	31	10-18	2-5	9-11	+3	9	8
Z. RisacherF · #10	23	18	7-10	4-4	—	+2	3	0
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	38	13	3-15	2-8	5-5	+13	2	10
D. DanielsG · #5	31	11	5-13	0-1	1-1	-17	6	3
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	23	8	3-8	2-5	—	-23	2	2
A. NewellF · #14	8	5	2-2	1-1	—	-10	1	1
J. LandaleC · #31	17	5	2-3	1-2	—	-13	0	1
C. McCollumG · #3	28	12	5-8	2-4	—	+4	1	3
Team		119	43-88	18-37	15-17		30	30
DNP: M. Gueye, C. Koloko, B. Hield, G. Vincent, K. Wallace

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHA

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

46-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-88

FG %

18-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-37

16-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-17

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHA leads series 2-1

Nov 23

CHA110@

ATL113

Dec 19

ATL126@

CHA133

Feb 8

CHA126@

ATL119today

Feb 12

ATL107@

CHA110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHA-12556%

ATL+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHA -1.5↗SpreadBet CHA -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHA beat ATL 126-119. M. Bridges paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 5 AST. CHA outscored the other side 38-30 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs CHA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHAstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

95 PTS · 36 REB · 24 AST

GS 77

Bench(5)

31 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 29

ATLstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 26 REB · 23 AST

GS 78

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 4 REB · 7 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA4th Quarter · 3:14 · 117-113

+41pp→ 81% WP

Dyson Daniels · enters the game for Zaccharie Risacher

ATL4th Quarter · 26.3 · 120-117

+17pp→ 40% WP

Brandon Miller · personal foul

CHA4th Quarter · 23.3 · 120-119

+16pp→ 84% WP

Onyeka Okongwu · personal take foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHA	32	28	38	28	126
ATL	35	25	30	29	119

Period scoring

CHA won 2 · ATL won 2

Bridges 9

Okongwu 10

Knueppel 12

Newell 16

Ball 9

Risacher 21

Bridges 10

Daniels 32

CHA

ATL

Shooting comparison

CHA

ATL

48%

46-95

49%

43-88

46%

18-39

3PT

49%

18-37

100%

16-16

88%

15-17

Play-by-play · 473 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHA 126·ATL 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHA 126·ATL 119
Q4·6.2
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 126·ATL 119
Q4·6.2
Moussa Diabate enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 125·ATL 119
Q4·6.2
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 125·ATL 119
Q4·6.2
Jalen Johnson personal take foul
CHA 124·ATL 119
−1pp
Q4·11.1
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Moussa Diabate
·
CHA 124·ATL 119
Q4·11.1
Jalen Johnson out of bounds bad pass turnover
CHA 124·ATL 119
Q4·11.1
(00:11.1) [Hornets] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Hornets] retain their timeout
CHA 124·ATL 119
−3pp
Q4·11.1
Hornets Full timeout
CHA 124·ATL 119
Q4·12.1
CJ McCollum enters the game for Jock Landale
·
CHA 124·ATL 119
Q4·12.1
Hawks Full timeout
CHA 124·ATL 119
Q4·12.1
Brandon Miller makes free throw 2 of 2
CHA 124·ATL 119
+2pp
Q4·12.1
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 123·ATL 119
Q4·12.1
Jock Landale enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
CHA 123·ATL 119
Q4·12.1
Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 123·ATL 119
−0.7pp
Q4·12.1
Corey Kispert personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHA 122·ATL 119
−5pp
Q4·12.1
Brandon Miller defensive rebound
CHA 122·ATL 119
−3pp
Q4·14.7
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses 23-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
CHA 122·ATL 119
−10pp
Q4·23.3
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHA 122·ATL 119
+8pp
Q4·23.3
CJ McCollum enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
CHA 121·ATL 119
Q4·23.3
LaMelo Ball makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 121·ATL 119
−2pp
Q4·23.3
Onyeka Okongwu personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHA 120·ATL 119
−16pp
Q4·26.3
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHA 120·ATL 119
−11pp
Q4·26.3
Corey Kispert enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
CHA 120·ATL 118
Q4·26.3
LaMelo Ball enters the game for Sion James
·
CHA 120·ATL 118
Q4·26.3
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
CHA 120·ATL 118
+3pp
Q4·26.3
Brandon Miller personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHA 120·ATL 117
+17pp
Q4·32.1
Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
CHA 120·ATL 117
Q4·32.1
Hawks Full timeout
CHA 120·ATL 117

Betting line

CHA -1.5·O/U 232.5·CHA -125/ATL +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

harlotte Hornets went into Atlanta Hawks and beat them, 126–119.

CHA -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Ryan KalkbrennerCHA · C
TS%76.299+
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHA

league avg

ATL

55.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

55.1%

45.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

115.8

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

26.2

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

14.4

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR