NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13SA

DAL

19-33

125138

36-16

NBASat, Feb 7FinalSeriesSA leads series 3-0VegasSA -11.5

DAL · top performer

Marvin Bagley III

F · #35

18.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Stephon Castle

G · #5

41.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDAL ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 9pp · 1st Quarter · 37.1

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. MartinF · #16	24	11	5-10	1-2	—	+1	5	2
D. GaffordF · #21	18	9	3-5	—	3-4	0	4	2
N. MarshallF · #13	25	6	1-8	0-2	4-4	-8	3	5
C. FlaggF · #32	26	14	5-12	2-3	2-2	-31	4	4
M. ChristieG · #00	27	17	6-11	3-7	2-2	-23	3	3
Bench
D. PowellF · #7	5	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	+4	1	0
M. Bagley IIIF · #35	24	16	6-14	1-1	3-7	-19	12	2
P.J. WashingtonF · #25	23	10	4-10	2-5	—	-10	5	3
K. ThompsonG · #31	19	19	6-14	4-10	3-3	+9	1	2
T. JonesG · #1	17	4	2-4	0-2	—	+18	0	7
B. WilliamsG · #10	24	18	8-12	2-2	—	-10	3	4
A. JohnsonG · #8	7	0	0-4	0-2	—	+4	0	1
Team		125	46-105	15-37	18-24		41	35

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	15	5	2-2	1-1	—	+5	2	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	27	16	6-14	1-6	3-4	+3	11	1
D. FoxG · #4	26	15	7-13	1-4	—	+11	2	5
D. VassellG · #24	30	17	7-15	1-4	2-2	+31	4	6
S. CastleG · #5	32	40	15-19	3-5	7-10	+30	12	12
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	22	9	3-6	3-5	0-2	-12	1	1
K. OlynykF · #8	5	0	0-1	—	—	-4	2	1
K. JohnsonF · #3	16	8	3-5	0-2	2-2	-13	4	0
J. SochanF · #10	4	0	0-1	—	—	-6	0	0
C. BryantF · #11	17	11	4-11	3-7	—	+6	5	0
B. BiyomboC · #18	3	0	—	—	—	-8	1	0
L. KornetC · #7	16	6	3-3	—	—	+14	4	3
J. McLaughlinG · #0	4	0	0-1	—	—	-6	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	23	11	5-8	1-1	—	+14	4	5
Team		138	55-99	14-35	14-20		52	34

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

Home

46-105

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

55-99

FG %

15-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-35

18-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 3-0

Oct 23

SA125@

DAL92

Feb 6

SA135@

DAL123

Feb 7

DAL125@

SA138today

Apr 11

DAL120@

SA139

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+35022%

SA-45582%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -11.5↗SpreadBet SA -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat DAL 138-125. S. Castle stuffed the line with 40 PTS, 12 REB, and 12 AST. DAL outscored the other side 34-24 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs DAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DALstarters 46% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 19 REB · 16 AST

GS 46

Bench(7)

68 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST

GS 62

SAstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 31 REB · 24 AST

GS 86

Bench(9)

45 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST

GS 36

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA1st Quarter · 3:19 · 24-30

+7pp→ 83% WP

Klay Thompson · misses 21-foot jumper

SA2nd Quarter · 5:03 · 56-61

+7pp→ 80% WP

Carter Bryant · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)

DAL1st Quarter · 37.1 · 30-37

+9pp→ 15% WP

Victor Wembanyama · blocks Marvin Bagley III's tip shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DAL	32	35	24	34	125
SA	39	42	33	24	138

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · SA won 3

Williams 9

Castle 10

Thompson 14

III 40

Washington 6

Castle 13

Christie 8

Barnes 6

DAL

Shooting comparison

DAL

44%

46-105

56%

55-99

41%

15-37

3PT

40%

14-35

75%

18-24

70%

14-20

Play-by-play · 514 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DAL 125·SA 138
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DAL 125·SA 138
Q4·5.2
shot clock turnover
DAL 125·SA 138
Q4·30.0
Tyus Jones makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (AJ Johnson assists)
· ·
DAL 125·SA 138
Q4·41.3
Kelly Olynyk bad pass turnover (Dwight Powell steals)
·
DAL 123·SA 138
Q4·49.6
Spurs offensive team rebound
DAL 123·SA 138
Q4·49.6
Marvin Bagley III blocks Kelly Olynyk 's 3-foot running layup
·
DAL 123·SA 138
Q4·54.1
Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound
DAL 123·SA 138
Q4·57.0
AJ Johnson misses running pullup jump shot
·
DAL 123·SA 138
Q4·1:01
Dwight Powell defensive rebound
DAL 123·SA 138
Q4·1:03
Jordan McLaughlin misses driving layup
DAL 123·SA 138
Q4·1:26
Dwight Powell makes free throw 2 of 2
DAL 123·SA 138
Q4·1:26
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·1:26
Dwight Powell misses free throw 1 of 2
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·1:26
Bismack Biyombo shooting foul
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·1:39
shot clock turnover
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·1:39
Bismack Biyombo offensive rebound
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·1:41
Marvin Bagley III blocks Jeremy Sochan 's 2-foot layup
·
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:01
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:05
AJ Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:14
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:14
Brandon Williams misses 6-foot two point shot
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:20
Mavericks offensive team rebound
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:20
Jeremy Sochan blocks AJ Johnson 's 4-foot driving layup
· ·
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:26
Mavericks defensive team rebound
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:27
Carter Bryant misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·2:45
Brandon Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)
·
DAL 122·SA 138
Q4·3:00
Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound
DAL 119·SA 138
Q4·3:05
Carter Bryant misses 22-foot three point jumper
DAL 119·SA 138
Q4·3:17
Marvin Bagley III makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyus Jones assists)
·
DAL 119·SA 138

Betting line

SA -11.5·O/U 234.5·DAL +350/SA -455

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Dallas Mavericks, 138–125.

SA -11.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 28.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Dwight PowellDAL · F
TS%69.999
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Daniel GaffordDAL · F
TS%67.796
Cooper FlaggDAL · F
DRIVES12.894

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DAL

league avg

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.3%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.1

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.3

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

14.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR