NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5PHX

PHX

31-20

130125

POR

23-28

NBATue, Feb 3FinalSeriesPHX leads series 2-0VegasPHX -2.5

PHX · top performer

Collin Gillespie

G · #12

31.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Donovan Clingan

C · #23

20.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 17pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:19

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	36	11	5-12	1-5	0-2	+2	7	0
D. BrooksF · #3	31	11	3-16	1-4	4-4	-4	4	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	26	24	11-14	—	2-3	-7	11	1
G. AllenG · #8	36	24	9-17	6-11	—	+1	1	4
C. GillespieG · #12	33	30	10-17	8-14	2-2	+5	4	10
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	9	0	—	—	—	+1	1	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	21	8	4-7	—	—	+16	5	6
R. DunnF · #0	9	6	2-3	2-2	—	-2	1	0
J. GoodwinG · #23	23	16	6-9	2-4	2-4	+9	10	3
J. BouyeaG · #17	15	0	0-2	0-1	—	+4	1	1
Team		130	50-97	20-41	10-15		45	26
DNP: N. Hayes-Davis, R. Fleming, N. Richards, K. Maluach

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	33	23	8-15	3-7	4-6	+4	2	4
T. CamaraF · #33	38	13	5-12	3-9	—	-3	11	4
D. ClinganC · #23	27	14	4-7	3-4	3-4	+5	15	3
J. HolidayG · #5	29	15	6-12	1-5	2-2	-5	4	5
S. SharpeG · #17	31	19	7-16	2-8	3-3	+7	1	1
Bench
R. Williams IIIC · #35	19	14	6-7	1-1	1-2	-15	8	3
C. LoveG · #2	8	0	0-2	0-2	—	-2	0	0
V. KrejciG · #27	14	5	2-7	1-6	—	-5	0	1
B. WesleyG · #1	20	10	4-8	2-4	0-1	-2	1	4
S. CissokoG · #91	21	12	5-9	2-6	—	-9	5	6
Team		125	47-95	18-52	13-18		47	31
DNP: K. Murray, D. Avdija, Y. Hansen, M. Thybulle, R. Rupert

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

POR

Home

50-97

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

47-95

FG %

20-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-52

10-15

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX leads series 2-0

Nov 19

PHX127@

POR110

Feb 4

PHX130@

POR125today

Feb 23

POR92@

PHX77

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

218.5

Defensive · -7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-14860%

POR+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗SpreadBet PHX -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

218.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat POR 130-125. C. Gillespie paced them with 30 PTS, 4 REB, 10 AST. PHX outscored the other side 34-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

100 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 78

Bench(5)

30 PTS · 18 REB · 10 AST

GS 36

PORstarters 67% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 33 REB · 17 AST

GS 69

Bench(5)

41 PTS · 14 REB · 14 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX1st Quarter · 6:37 · 9-22

+12pp→ 25% WP

Mark Williams · blocks Shaedon Sharpe 's 4-foot driving layup

PHX3rd Quarter · 3:19 · 91-87

+17pp→ 69% WP

Grayson Allen · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 55.9 · 127-120

+9pp→ 96% WP

Grayson Allen · makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	30	37	34	29	130
POR	41	31	22	31	125

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · POR won 2

Brooks 11

Camara 13

O'Neale 9

Cissoko 7

Gillespie 11

Sharpe 19

Dunn 6

Grant 8

PHX

POR

Shooting comparison

PHX

POR

52%

50-97

49%

47-95

49%

20-41

3PT

35%

18-52

67%

10-15

72%

13-18

Play-by-play · 486 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 130·POR 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 130·POR 125
−0.5pp
Q4·1.3
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
PHX 130·POR 125
Q4·1.3
Jordan Goodwin misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 130·POR 125
Q4·1.3
Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 130·POR 125
Q4·1.3
Jrue Holiday personal take foul
PHX 129·POR 125
Q4·1.3
Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound
PHX 129·POR 125
−2pp
Q4·4.7
Jerami Grant misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 129·POR 125
−4pp
Q4·6.9
Grayson Allen out of bounds lost ball turnover
PHX 129·POR 125
+3pp
Q4·8.7
Sidy Cissoko makes 1-foot running dunk
PHX 129·POR 125
+1pp
Q4·11.9
Toumani Camara defensive rebound
PHX 129·POR 123
Q4·13.8
Royce O'Neale misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 129·POR 123
+1pp
Q4·13.8
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 129·POR 123
Q4·13.8
Royce O'Neale misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 129·POR 123
Q4·13.8
Toumani Camara personal take foul
PHX 129·POR 123
−2pp
Q4·17.8
(00:17.8) [Suns] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
PHX 129·POR 123
+0.7pp
Q4·18.9
Jerami Grant makes 26-foot jump bank shot (Sidy Cissoko assists)
·
PHX 129·POR 123
+0.8pp
Q4·25.4
Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Mark Williams
·
PHX 129·POR 120
Q4·25.4
Trail Blazers Full timeout
PHX 129·POR 120
Q4·25.4
Mark Williams makes 2-foot dunk (Dillon Brooks assists)
·
PHX 129·POR 120
Q4·34.8
Shaedon Sharpe personal foul
PHX 127·POR 120
−1pp
Q4·50.4
Jrue Holiday bad pass turnover (Royce O'Neale steals)
·
PHX 127·POR 120
−3pp
Q4·55.9
Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
PHX 127·POR 120
−9pp
Q4·1:15
Jerami Grant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Sidy Cissoko assists)BIG MOMENT
·
PHX 124·POR 120
+8pp
Q4·1:17
Sidy Cissoko offensive rebound
PHX 124·POR 117
+2pp
Q4·1:20
Sidy Cissoko misses 23-foot three point jumper
PHX 124·POR 117
−2pp
Q4·1:27
Mark Williams makes alley oop layup (Grayson Allen assists)
·
PHX 124·POR 117
−4pp
Q4·1:45
Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 122·POR 117
−4pp
Q4·1:45
Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 122·POR 116
+1pp
Q4·1:45
Collin Gillespie personal foulBIG MOMENT
PHX 122·POR 115
+9pp

Betting line

PHX -2.5·O/U 218.5·PHX -148/POR +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns went into Portland Trail Blazers and beat them, 130–125. Decided by 5.

PHX -2.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 218.5 OVER by 36.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Shaedon SharpePOR · G
USG%29.996
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.1± 2.1high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high
Branden CarlsonPOR
0.9± 1.6high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Toumani CamaraPOR
1.4± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

POR

53.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

45.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

114.6

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.0

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR