NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16MIL

CHI

24-27

115131

MIL

19-29

NBATue, Feb 3FinalSeriesMIL leads series 3-0VegasCHI -1.5

CHI · top performer

Ayo Dosunmu

G · #11

18.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Kyle Kuzma

F · #18

27.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 12pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:06

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. SmithF · #25	20	16	5-7	3-5	3-3	+8	5	1
I. OkoroF · #35	40	9	3-10	1-6	2-2	-4	2	2
M. BuzelisF · #14	36	22	8-16	5-10	1-3	-7	2	1
C. WhiteG · #0	30	21	7-17	2-8	5-7	-15	10	3
A. DosunmuG · #11	28	17	6-12	3-6	2-2	-2	4	8
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	27	17	7-17	3-8	—	-22	5	3
D. TerryF · #7	16	6	2-5	1-3	1-2	-10	3	1
Y. KawamuraG · #8	26	5	1-5	1-5	2-2	-18	5	7
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		115	40-91	19-51	16-23		43	26
DNP: J. Phillips, T. Jones, J. Giddey

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	31	31	12-22	3-5	4-7	+18	10	6
M. TurnerC · #3	23	15	5-10	2-3	3-4	-7	4	1
A. CoffeyG · #17	22	2	1-3	—	—	-17	1	2
A. GreenG · #20	30	17	6-11	5-9	—	+3	4	2
R. RollinsG · #13	35	21	8-21	5-8	—	+7	7	10
Bench
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	2	0	0-1	—	0-2	-4	2	0
P. NanceF · #35	27	15	6-8	3-5	—	+19	8	2
J. SimsC · #00	21	9	4-6	—	1-2	+29	9	2
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	23	15	5-9	5-8	—	+17	1	0
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	12	2	1-2	—	—	+3	2	3
C. AnthonyG · #50	12	4	2-4	—	—	+12	3	5
Team		131	50-97	23-38	8-15		51	33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

40-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-97

FG %

19-51

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

23-38

16-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIL leads series 3-0

Nov 8

CHI110@

MIL126

Dec 28

MIL112@

CHI103

Feb 4

CHI115@

MIL131today

Mar 1

MIL97@

CHI120

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHI -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI-11854%

MIL-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗SpreadBet CHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIL beat CHI 131-115. K. Kuzma paced them with 31 PTS, 10 REB, 6 AST. MIL outscored the other side 39-24 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 23 REB · 15 AST

GS 67

Bench(4)

28 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST

GS 30

MILstarters 66% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST

GS 68

Bench(6)

45 PTS · 25 REB · 12 AST

GS 44

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI1st Quarter · 11:07 · 3-2

+10pp→ 51% WP

Jalen Smith · lost ball turnover (Amir Coffey steals)

CHI3rd Quarter · 4:06 · 82-90

+12pp→ 18% WP

Coby White · makes running layup (Ayo Dosunmu assists)

MIL3rd Quarter · 52.5 · 89-101

+10pp→ 92% WP

Pete Nance · makes 1-foot reverse layup (Cole Anthony assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	24	28	37	26	115
MIL	39	38	28	26	131

Period scoring

CHI won 1 · MIL won 2

Dosunmu 8

Rollins 14

Buzelis 9

Turner 11

White 15

Nance 16

Williams 9

Anthony 25

CHI

MIL

Shooting comparison

CHI

MIL

44%

40-91

52%

50-97

37%

19-51

3PT

61%

23-38

70%

16-23

53%

8-15

Play-by-play · 484 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 115·MIL 131
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 115·MIL 131
Q4·7.8
shot clock turnover
CHI 115·MIL 131
Q4·31.9
Dalen Terry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Yuki Kawamura assists)
·
CHI 115·MIL 131
Q4·36.0
Yuki Kawamura offensive rebound
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·38.4
Patrick Williams misses dunk
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·42.4
Dalen Terry offensive rebound
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·44.5
Patrick Williams misses 27-foot running jump shot
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·50.5
Yuki Kawamura defensive rebound
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·51.3
Dalen Terry blocks Andre Jackson Jr. 's 11-foot driving layup
·
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·54.7
Gary Trent Jr. enters the game for Cole Anthony
·
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·54.7
Bucks Full timeout
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·1:04
Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·1:06
Cole Anthony misses 7-foot two point shot
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·1:20
Dalen Terry makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 112·MIL 131
Q4·1:20
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:20
Dalen Terry misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:20
Andre Jackson Jr. personal foul
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:36
Yuki Kawamura defensive rebound
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:37
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:37
Bucks offensive team rebound
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:37
Thanasis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:37
Dalen Terry shooting foul
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:44
Cole Anthony defensive rebound
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:45
Patrick Williams misses 1-foot tip shot
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:45
Patrick Williams offensive rebound
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:46
Patrick Williams misses driving layup
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:54
Lachlan Olbrich defensive rebound
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:54
Dalen Terry blocks Thanasis Antetokounmpo 's 3-foot driving layup
·
CHI 111·MIL 131
Q4·1:59
Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound
CHI 111·MIL 131

Betting line

CHI -1.5·O/U 222.5·CHI -118/MIL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ilwaukee Bucks held off Chicago Bulls, 131–115.

MIL +1.5 cashed (CHI lost outright). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jericho SimsMIL · C
TS%77.299+
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Coby WhiteCHA · G
USG%29.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high
Norman PowellCHI
18.4± 5.3high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high
Matas BuzelisCHI
6.6± 1.9high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high
Josh GiddeyCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

MIL

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR