NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16LAL

LAL

30-19

125109

BKN

13-36

NBATue, Feb 3FinalSeriesLAL lead series 1-0VegasLAL -7.5

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BKN · top performer

Day'Ron Sharpe

C · #20

26.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ BKN

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 11:35

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	30	25	10-16	0-3	5-7	+24	3	7
J. LaRaviaF · #12	22	18	7-9	1-2	3-6	+10	5	0
D. AytonC · #5	28	7	3-5	—	1-2	+16	8	3
M. SmartG · #36	18	6	3-5	0-2	—	+30	3	1
L. DoncicG · #77	29	24	8-18	4-11	4-6	+19	6	5
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	3	0	—	—	—	-5	0	0
R. HachimuraF · #28	26	5	2-3	1-2	—	-1	3	0
J. VanderbiltF · #2	19	6	2-3	0-1	2-4	+4	5	3
D. TimmeF · #17	6	2	1-3	0-1	—	-8	2	0
D. KnechtF · #4	5	4	2-5	0-2	—	-9	0	1
J. HayesC · #11	15	9	3-3	—	3-4	+8	1	2
G. VincentG · #7	16	0	0-3	0-2	—	-9	1	1
A. ReavesG · #15	21	15	3-9	1-5	8-10	+10	4	1
B. JamesG · #9	5	4	2-3	—	—	-9	0	1
Team		125	46-85	7-31	26-39		41	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. Porter Jr.F · #17	32	21	7-18	0-9	7-9	-18	10	3
N. ClowneyF · #21	21	6	3-7	0-4	—	-17	4	2
N. ClaxtonC · #33	22	10	5-7	—	0-2	-30	5	2
E. DeminG · #8	27	11	4-11	3-8	—	-11	2	2
N. TraoreG · #88	25	7	3-9	1-3	—	-4	5	4
Bench
Z. WilliamsF · #1	24	17	7-11	3-6	—	+2	2	3
D. WolfF · #2	19	7	3-8	1-5	—	+3	4	3
D. SharpeC · #20	26	19	9-12	—	1-1	+14	14	5
C. ThomasG · #24	23	8	3-7	1-4	1-2	-11	0	2
D. PowellG · #4	4	0	—	—	—	-6	1	0
B. SarafG · #77	17	3	1-4	1-2	—	-2	1	2
Team		109	45-94	10-41	9-14		48	28
DNP: J. Wilson, T. Mann, T. Martin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

BKN

Home

46-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-94

FG %

7-31

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-41

26-39

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

9-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL lead series 1-0

Feb 4

LAL125@

BKN109today

Mar 28

BKN99@

LAL116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

223.5

Standard · -2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL-34077%

BKN+27027%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -7.5↗SpreadBet LAL -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

223.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat BKN 125-109. L. James paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 7 AST. LAL outscored the other side 45-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BKN vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 25 REB · 16 AST

GS 68

Bench(9)

45 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 41

BKNstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

55 PTS · 26 REB · 13 AST

GS 31

Bench(6)

54 PTS · 22 REB · 15 AST

GS 47

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	45	24	31	25	125
BKN	23	17	34	35	109

Period scoring

LAL won 2 · BKN won 2

Doncic 14

Jr. 8

James 8

Jr. 9

Doncic 9

Williams 10

James 5

Sharpe 9

LAL

BKN

Shooting comparison

LAL

BKN

54%

46-85

48%

45-94

23%

7-31

3PT

24%

10-41

67%

26-39

64%

9-14

Play-by-play · 488 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 125·BKN 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 125·BKN 109
Q4·7.3
Ziaire Williams lost ball turnover (Bronny James steals)
· ·
LAL 125·BKN 109
Q4·25.3
Dalton Knecht makes dunk (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)
·
LAL 125·BKN 109
Q4·40.5
Danny Wolf makes running layup (Nolan Traore assists)
·
LAL 123·BKN 109
Q4·43.4
Nolan Traore defensive rebound
LAL 123·BKN 107
Q4·47.1
Dalton Knecht misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAL 123·BKN 107
Q4·1:05
Egor Demin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)
·
LAL 123·BKN 107
Q4·1:14
Danny Wolf defensive rebound
LAL 123·BKN 104
Q4·1:17
Drew Timme misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 123·BKN 104
Q4·1:22
Drew Timme offensive rebound
LAL 123·BKN 104
Q4·1:25
Dalton Knecht misses 24-foot running jump shot
LAL 123·BKN 104
Q4·1:31
Drew Timme defensive rebound
LAL 123·BKN 104
Q4·1:35
Ziaire Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 123·BKN 104
Q4·1:50
Dalton Knecht makes driving layup (Bronny James assists)
· ·
LAL 123·BKN 104
Q4·2:11
Day'Ron Sharpe makes running layup (Ziaire Williams assists)
·
LAL 121·BKN 104
Q4·2:17
Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound
LAL 121·BKN 102
Q4·2:17
Bronny James misses driving floating jump shot
·
LAL 121·BKN 102
Q4·2:36
Day'Ron Sharpe makes two point shot
LAL 121·BKN 102
Q4·2:36
Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·2:38
Day'Ron Sharpe misses tip shot
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·2:38
Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·2:40
Nolan Traore misses running layup
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·2:47
Egor Demin defensive rebound
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·2:50
Dalton Knecht misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·3:07
Maxi Kleber enters the game for Gabe Vincent
·
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·3:07
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·3:08
Danny Wolf makes running layup (Ziaire Williams assists)
·
LAL 121·BKN 100
Q4·3:12
Ziaire Williams defensive rebound
LAL 121·BKN 98
Q4·3:15
Drew Timme misses 7-foot floating jump shot
LAL 121·BKN 98

Betting line

LAL -7.5·O/U 223.5·LAL -340/BKN +270

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Brooklyn Nets and beat them, 125–109.

LAL -7.5 cashed (won by 16). Total cleared the 223.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
LeBron JamesLAL · F
TOUCHES78.997
Michael Porter Jr.BKN · F
USG%29.995
Ziaire WilliamsBKN · F
DEFL3.295

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BKN win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BKN vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Michael Porter Jr.BKN
22.7± 6.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Julius RandleBKN
7.2± 2.1high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
Austin ReavesLAL
5.4± 2.6high
Walker KesslerLAL
3.8± 3.2low

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Josh MinottBKN
0.9± 1.2high
Deandre AytonLAL
0.9± 0.6high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
1.5± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

BKN

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.0%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

44.3%

114.8

PPG

◀

114.9

105.9

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR