NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9UTAH

UTAH

16-35

131122

IND

13-38

NBATue, Feb 3FinalSeriesUTAH wins series 2-0VegasUTAH -2.5

UTAH · top performer

Isaiah Collier

G · #8

23.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Quenton Jackson

G · #29

24.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 12pp · 4th Quarter · 5:42

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. MarkkanenF · #23	27	27	10-19	2-7	5-6	+5	3	2
K. FilipowskiF · #22	36	16	6-12	1-2	3-4	+3	16	5
C. WilliamsF · #5	40	14	6-8	—	2-2	-3	6	3
I. CollierG · #8	48	17	6-16	0-3	5-8	+9	5	22
A. BaileyG · #19	40	19	7-10	2-4	3-6	+13	4	1
Bench
B. SensabaughF · #28	30	20	8-14	4-7	—	+6	1	5
S. MykhailiukG · #10	20	18	7-9	4-6	—	+12	3	0
Team		131	50-88	13-29	18-26		38	38
DNP: K. Love, J. Nurkic, W. Kessler, K. George

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. WalkerF · #5	32	24	8-17	1-7	7-9	-14	6	4
J. HuffC · #32	25	12	5-9	2-4	—	-14	6	3
B. SheppardG · #26	29	8	3-7	1-4	1-1	-9	1	1
K. JonesG · #7	36	12	4-9	2-4	2-2	-17	6	8
J. FurphyG · #12	29	14	6-11	2-7	0-2	+3	7	6
Bench
I. JacksonF · #22	23	11	4-6	—	3-6	+5	10	1
E. ThompsonG · #55	19	11	4-8	2-4	1-1	0	0	3
Q. JacksonG · #29	17	24	9-10	2-3	4-6	+15	1	3
T. PeterG · #4	30	6	2-7	2-6	—	-14	1	4
Team		122	45-84	14-39	18-27		38	33
DNP: P. Siakam, M. Potter, T.J. McConnell, A. Nembhard, A. Nesmith, B. Mathurin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

IND

Home

50-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-84

FG %

13-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-39

18-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

UTAH wins series 2-0

Nov 12

IND128@

UTAH152

Feb 4

UTAH131@

IND122today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTAH -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH-14259%

IND+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTAH -2.5↗SpreadBet UTAH -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTAH beat IND 131-122. I. Collier led with 17 PTS, 5 REB, 22 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 34 REB · 33 AST

GS 94

Bench(2)

38 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST

GS 32

INDstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 26 REB · 22 AST

GS 49

Bench(4)

52 PTS · 12 REB · 11 AST

GS 51

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND4th Quarter · 10:13 · 99-96

+12pp→ 49% WP

Brice Sensabaugh · shooting foul

IND4th Quarter · 9:43 · 101-100

+10pp→ 49% WP

Ethan Thompson · makes 26-foot three pointer (Johnny Furphy assists)

UTAH4th Quarter · 5:42 · 116-111

+12pp→ 75% WP

Brice Sensabaugh · makes 26-foot three pointer (Isaiah Collier assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	25	31	40	35	131
IND	32	24	33	33	122

Period scoring

UTAH won 3 · IND won 1

Markkanen 6

Jackson 10

Bailey 7

Walker 5

Markkanen 11

Walker 11

Collier 9

Jackson 8

UTAH

IND

Shooting comparison

UTAH

IND

57%

50-88

54%

45-84

45%

13-29

3PT

36%

14-39

69%

18-26

67%

18-27

Play-by-play · 439 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 131·IND 122
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 131·IND 122
Q4·12.6
Jarace Walker bad pass turnover (Isaiah Collier steals)
·
UTAH 131·IND 122
Q4·18.6
Isaiah Collier bad pass turnover (Quenton Jackson steals)
· ·
UTAH 131·IND 122
Q4·41.1
Jarace Walker makes driving dunk
UTAH 131·IND 122
Q4·43.2
Ace Bailey bad pass turnover (Jarace Walker steals)
·
UTAH 131·IND 120
Q4·47.5
Ben Sheppard bad pass turnover (Ace Bailey steals)
·
UTAH 131·IND 120
Q4·54.3
Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 131·IND 120
Q4·54.3
Kyle Filipowski makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 130·IND 120
Q4·54.3
Jarace Walker personal foul
UTAH 129·IND 120
−0.5pp
Q4·1:11
Jarace Walker makes free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 129·IND 120
Q4·1:11
Pacers offensive team rebound
UTAH 129·IND 119
−0.5pp
Q4·1:11
Jarace Walker misses free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 129·IND 119
−1pp
Q4·1:11
Isaiah Collier personal foul
UTAH 129·IND 119
+1pp
Q4·1:17
Jarace Walker makes technical free throw
UTAH 129·IND 119
Q4·1:17
Brice Sensabaugh technical foul
UTAH 129·IND 118
Q4·1:17
Ace Bailey makes tip shot
UTAH 129·IND 118
Q4·1:17
Ace Bailey offensive rebound
UTAH 127·IND 118
−0.7pp
Q4·1:18
Brice Sensabaugh misses running layup
UTAH 127·IND 118
−0.5pp
Q4·1:23
Jarace Walker lost ball turnover (Kyle Filipowski steals)
·
UTAH 127·IND 118
Q4·1:28
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
UTAH 127·IND 118
Q4·1:33
Isaiah Collier misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
UTAH 127·IND 118
Q4·1:55
Ben Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 1
UTAH 127·IND 118
−1pp
Q4·1:55
Kyle Filipowski shooting foul
UTAH 127·IND 117
+2pp
Q4·1:55
Ben Sheppard makes driving layup (Quenton Jackson assists)
· ·
UTAH 127·IND 117
Q4·2:14
Kyle Filipowski offensive foul turnover
UTAH 127·IND 115
Q4·2:14
Kyle Filipowski offensive foul
UTAH 127·IND 115
Q4·2:32
Quenton Jackson makes driving layup (Kam Jones assists)
· ·
UTAH 127·IND 115
Q4·2:39
Cody Williams makes two point shot (Isaiah Collier assists)
·
UTAH 127·IND 113
Q4·2:43
Isaiah Collier defensive rebound
UTAH 125·IND 113

Betting line

UTAH -2.5·O/U 232.5·UTAH -142/IND +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tah Jazz went into Indiana Pacers and beat them, 131–122.

UTAH -2.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 20.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Isaiah JacksonLAC · F
TS%65.393
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH · F
USG%27.492
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH · F
CONT5.985

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

IND vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Pascal SiakamIND
23.8± 7.9high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Oscar TshiebweUTAH
8.5± 5.5high
Kyle FilipowskiUTAH
8.1± 2.6high

Assists

Andrew NembhardIND
8.5± 4.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
8.1± 4.3high
Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high

Blocks

Jay HuffIND
1.9± 1.9high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
1.3± 1.3high
Jalen SlawsonIND
1.0± 1.4medium

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Tyrese HaliburtonIND
1.6± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

IND

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.3%

46.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.7

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR