NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DET

DEN

33-18

121124

DET

37-12

NBATue, Feb 3FinalSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasDET -5.5

DEN · top performer

Jamal Murray

G · #27

30.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Cade Cunningham

G · #2

20.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDEN ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 1:46

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
N. JokicC · #15	33	24	9-19	3-5	3-3	-9	15	4
J. MurrayG · #27	37	32	8-17	4-8	12-13	+5	1	8
J. PickettG · #24	10	0	0-5	0-4	—	-4	1	1
C. BraunG · #0	26	6	2-6	0-1	2-2	-9	0	2
P. WatsonG · #8	38	17	4-11	0-1	9-11	+9	3	2
Bench
Z. NnajiF · #22	1	0	—	—	—	-4	0	0
J. ValanciunasC · #17	22	11	4-4	—	3-5	+16	11	1
T. Hardaway Jr.G · #10	28	6	1-7	1-4	3-4	-9	2	0
B. BrownG · #11	23	10	3-5	1-3	3-3	-9	2	0
J. StrawtherG · #3	23	15	6-9	1-4	2-2	-1	8	2
Team		121	37-83	10-30	37-43		43	20
DNP: H. Tyson, D. Holmes II

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	34	11	4-13	2-4	1-1	+3	6	3
D. RobinsonF · #55	25	20	7-12	6-9	—	-1	3	2
J. DurenC · #0	31	19	6-10	—	7-8	0	13	1
C. CunninghamG · #2	38	29	9-19	2-6	9-11	+11	2	10
A. ThompsonG · #9	24	10	5-9	—	—	+9	6	3
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	23	11	3-7	0-1	5-6	-2	6	3
R. Holland IIF · #5	15	7	3-6	1-3	—	+4	4	0
J. GreenG · #31	14	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	0	0	2
C. LeVertG · #8	20	4	2-6	0-3	—	-8	2	3
D. JenkinsG · #24	16	6	2-8	0-1	2-2	-1	1	0
Team		124	43-94	12-29	26-30		43	27
DNP: P. Reed, M. Sasser

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DEN

Away

Stat

DET

Home

37-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-94

FG %

10-30

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-29

37-43

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-30

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Jan 28

DET109@

DEN107

Feb 4

DEN121@

DET124today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DEN+16038%

DET-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -5.5↗SpreadBet DET -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat DEN 124-121. C. Cunningham paced them with 29 PTS, 2 REB, 10 AST. DET outscored the other side 37-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs DEN

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DENstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 20 REB · 17 AST

GS 63

Bench(5)

42 PTS · 23 REB · 3 AST

GS 40

DETstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 30 REB · 19 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

35 PTS · 13 REB · 8 AST

GS 31

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DEN1st Quarter · 2:13 · 20-24

+10pp→ 39% WP

Isaiah Stewart · loose ball foul

DET4th Quarter · 1:46 · 110-115

+14pp→ 86% WP

Tobias Harris · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)

DEN4th Quarter · 1:05 · 112-117

+13pp→ 23% WP

Daniss Jenkins · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	27	23	30	41	121
DET	32	37	24	31	124

Period scoring

DEN won 2 · DET won 2

Murray 13

Robinson 8

Brown 10

Cunningham 15

Jokic 10

Duren 6

Murray 14

Cunningham 10

DEN

DET

Shooting comparison

DEN

DET

45%

37-83

46%

43-94

33%

10-30

3PT

41%

12-29

86%

37-43

87%

26-30

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DEN 121·DET 124
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DEN 121·DET 124
+1pp
Q4·1.8
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DEN 121·DET 124
+3pp
Q4·5.0
Jamal Murray misses free throw 3 of 3BIG MOMENT
DEN 121·DET 124
+9pp
Q4·5.0
Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Christian Braun
·
DEN 121·DET 124
Q4·5.0
Tobias Harris enters the game for Javonte Green
·
DEN 121·DET 124
Q4·5.0
Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 3BIG MOMENT
DEN 121·DET 124
−6pp
Q4·5.0
Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 3
DEN 120·DET 124
−0.8pp
Q4·5.0
Cade Cunningham shooting foul
DEN 119·DET 124
−3pp
Q4·9.4
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 119·DET 124
−2pp
Q4·9.4
Isaiah Stewart enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DEN 119·DET 123
Q4·9.4
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 119·DET 123
+0.6pp
Q4·9.4
Christian Braun personal take foulBIG MOMENT
DEN 119·DET 122
+5pp
Q4·10.1
Jamal Murray makes 28-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
DEN 119·DET 122
−5pp
Q4·17.0
Javonte Green makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 116·DET 122
−1pp
Q4·17.0
Javonte Green makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 116·DET 121
+0.5pp
Q4·17.0
Tim Hardaway Jr. personal foul
DEN 116·DET 120
+4pp
Q4·20.4
Nikola Jokic makes driving layup (Peyton Watson assists)
·
DEN 116·DET 120
−2pp
Q4·24.7
Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Julian Strawther
·
DEN 114·DET 120
Q4·24.7
Nuggets Full timeout
DEN 114·DET 120
Q4·24.7
Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 114·DET 120
Q4·24.7
Javonte Green enters the game for Daniss Jenkins
·
DEN 114·DET 119
Q4·24.7
Pistons offensive team rebound
DEN 114·DET 119
−2pp
Q4·24.7
Cade Cunningham misses free throw 1 of 2
DEN 114·DET 119
−1pp
Q4·24.7
Peyton Watson personal take foul
DEN 114·DET 119
+3pp
Q4·30.4
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DEN 114·DET 119
+1pp
Q4·33.7
Julian Strawther misses 28-foot three point jumper
DEN 114·DET 119
+5pp
Q4·45.1
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 2 of 2
DEN 114·DET 119
−4pp
Q4·45.1
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DEN 114·DET 118
Q4·45.1
Daniss Jenkins makes free throw 1 of 2
DEN 114·DET 118
+4pp

Betting line

DET -5.5·O/U 229.5·DEN +160/DET -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Denver Nuggets, 124–121. Decided by 3.

DEN +5.5 cashed (DET won by 3). Total cleared the 229.5 OVER by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort

Nikola JokicDEN · C
TOUCHES12399+
Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Jamal MurrayDEN · G
TOUCHES82.297
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Nikola JokicDEN
26.6± 7.0high
Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Jamal MurrayDEN
24.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Nikola JokicDEN
12.5± 3.1high
Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
John CollinsDET
5.8± 2.5high

Assists

Nikola JokicDEN
9.7± 4.5high
Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Jamal MurrayDEN
6.4± 1.9high

Blocks

Nikola JokicDEN
1.0± 1.0high
Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Paul ReedDET
0.9± 1.3high

Steals

Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Bruce BrownDEN
1.3± 1.5high
Nikola JokicDEN
1.3± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

league avg

DET

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.2%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

48.0%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

115.9

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.0

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR