NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9MIA

MIA

25-22

111102

PHX

27-19

NBASun, Jan 25FinalSeriesMIA wins series 2-0VegasPHX -4.5

MIA · top performer

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

F · #11

19.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Dillon Brooks

F · #3

18.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIA ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 7:41

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. WigginsF · #22	24	10	5-12	0-4	—	+10	10	3
B. AdebayoC · #13	32	22	6-16	2-6	8-8	-7	7	1
N. PowellG · #24	31	16	5-21	2-10	4-4	+7	10	1
P. LarssonG · #9	35	10	4-9	—	2-3	-14	7	2
K. JakucionisG · #25	23	7	2-5	1-3	2-2	+6	6	3
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	15	1	0-1	0-1	1-2	+4	5	3
M. GardnerF · #15	3	2	—	—	2-2	+6	1	1
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	36	20	8-11	1-3	3-4	+19	5	6
N. JovicF · #5	18	12	4-10	2-5	2-4	+17	6	1
D. SmithG · #12	23	11	5-8	1-3	—	-3	2	0
Team		111	39-93	9-35	24-29		59	21
DNP: K. Johnson, D. Mitchell, J. Young

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	31	8	2-10	0-7	4-4	-10	5	5
D. BrooksF · #3	36	26	11-23	2-5	2-2	-7	5	2
M. WilliamsC · #15	24	11	4-6	—	3-4	+10	8	1
G. AllenG · #8	35	18	4-18	1-11	9-10	-4	6	3
C. GillespieG · #12	31	11	4-12	3-6	—	-9	4	0
Bench
N. Hayes-DavisF · #21	3	0	0-2	0-1	—	+6	1	0
I. LiversF · #18	15	9	4-4	1-1	—	-5	5	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	17	6	3-5	—	0-2	-25	7	1
R. DunnF · #0	8	4	2-6	—	—	+3	5	0
R. FlemingF · #20	3	0	0-1	—	—	+6	2	0
K. MaluachC · #10	3	2	—	—	2-2	+6	1	0
J. GoodwinG · #23	22	2	1-7	0-2	—	-4	5	2
J. BouyeaG · #17	13	5	2-6	0-2	1-2	-12	2	0
Team		102	37-100	7-35	21-26		56	14
DNP: N. Richards

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIA

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

39-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

37-100

FG %

9-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

7-35

24-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA wins series 2-0

Jan 14

PHX121@

MIA127

Jan 26

MIA111@

PHX102today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -4.5

Half-pt below key 5

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIA+15040%

PHX-18064%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -4.5↗SpreadBet PHX -4.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

4.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat PHX 111-102. J. Jaquez Jr. led with 20 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. MIA outscored the other side 32-21 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs MIA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MIAstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

65 PTS · 40 REB · 10 AST

GS 50

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 39

PHXstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

74 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST

GS 46

Bench(8)

28 PTS · 28 REB · 3 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIA1st Quarter · 1:21 · 29-19

+11pp→ 74% WP

Collin Gillespie · personal foul

PHX3rd Quarter · 1:52 · 80-73

+19pp→ 25% WP

Collin Gillespie · enters the game for Dillon Brooks

MIA4th Quarter · 7:41 · 96-83

+22pp→ 97% WP

Dru Smith · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	32	26	24	29	111
PHX	21	27	29	25	102

Period scoring

MIA won 2 · PHX won 2

Adebayo 9

Brooks 8

Jovic 5

Allen 9

Jr. 7

Brooks 7

Jr. 11

Adebayo 10

MIA

PHX

Shooting comparison

MIA

PHX

42%

39-93

37%

37-100

26%

9-35

3PT

20%

7-35

83%

24-29

81%

21-26

Play-by-play · 524 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIA 111·PHX 102
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIA 111·PHX 102
Q4·5.9
shot clock turnover
MIA 111·PHX 102
Q4·28.8
Ryan Dunn makes tip shot
MIA 111·PHX 102
Q4·29.9
Ryan Dunn offensive rebound
MIA 111·PHX 100
Q4·29.9
Rasheer Fleming misses two point shot
MIA 111·PHX 100
Q4·29.9
Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound
MIA 111·PHX 100
Q4·32.2
Ryan Dunn misses running dunk
MIA 111·PHX 100
Q4·35.4
Norman Powell lost ball turnover (Nigel Hayes-Davis steals)
·
MIA 111·PHX 100
Q4·54.9
Ryan Dunn makes tip shot
MIA 111·PHX 100
Q4·54.9
Ryan Dunn offensive rebound
MIA 111·PHX 98
Q4·55.0
Ryan Dunn misses two point shot
MIA 111·PHX 98
Q4·55.6
Ryan Dunn offensive rebound
MIA 111·PHX 98
Q4·58.7
Nigel Hayes-Davis misses 24-foot three point jumper
MIA 111·PHX 98
Q4·1:01
Jamaree Bouyea offensive rebound
MIA 111·PHX 98
Q4·1:03
Ryan Dunn misses 7-foot two point shot
MIA 111·PHX 98
Q4·1:13
Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 5-foot two point shot
MIA 111·PHX 98
Q4·1:34
Khaman Maluach makes free throw 2 of 2
MIA 109·PHX 98
Q4·1:34
Khaman Maluach makes free throw 1 of 2
MIA 109·PHX 97
Q4·1:34
Norman Powell personal foul
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·1:34
Khaman Maluach offensive rebound
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·1:34
Bam Adebayo blocks Nigel Hayes-Davis's tip shot
·
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·1:34
Nigel Hayes-Davis offensive rebound
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·1:34
Jamaree Bouyea misses driving layup
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·1:41
Rasheer Fleming defensive rebound
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·1:44
Norman Powell misses 27-foot three point jumper
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·1:45
Bam Adebayo offensive rebound
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·1:49
Dru Smith misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·2:04
Jamaree Bouyea makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
MIA 109·PHX 96
Q4·2:14
Ryan Dunn offensive rebound
MIA 109·PHX 94

Betting line

PHX -4.5·O/U 225.5·MIA +150/PHX -180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 111–102.

MIA +4.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 12.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694
Andrew WigginsMIA · F
CONT7.693
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
9.9± 4.4high
Bobby PortisMIA
6.2± 2.9high

Assists

Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high

Blocks

Andrew WigginsMIA
0.9± 0.9high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high
Jalen GreenPHX
0.7± 1.4high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high
Bam AdebayoMIA
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIA

league avg

PHX

54.2%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.7%

46.8%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

120.9

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

29.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR