NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

29-19

103101

OKC

37-10

NBASun, Jan 25FinalSeriesTOR leads series 1-0VegasOKC -11.5

TOR · top performer

Immanuel Quickley

G · #5

21.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

23.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ OKC

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 2:45

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	13	5-18	0-3	3-4	-4	5	4
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	32	10	3-8	0-2	4-8	-8	5	3
R. BarrettF · #9	21	14	6-12	2-3	—	+2	6	2
S. BarnesF · #4	32	10	3-8	0-2	4-4	+15	11	8
I. QuickleyG · #5	32	23	7-14	6-10	3-4	+2	11	2
Bench
O. AgbajiG · #30	15	5	2-2	—	1-2	-7	3	1
J. SheadG · #23	24	9	4-9	1-5	0-2	+1	4	5
J. WalterG · #14	28	9	3-8	1-6	2-2	+12	3	2
G. DickG · #1	21	10	4-7	2-3	—	-3	3	1
Team		103	37-86	12-34	17-26		51	28
DNP: J. Battle, J. Mogbo, G. Temple, A.J. Lawson, A. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	21	5	2-7	1-3	—	-5	3	1
C. HolmgrenC · #7	29	11	5-10	0-3	1-2	-9	10	0
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	35	24	8-11	0-1	8-10	-3	3	6
L. DortG · #5	36	19	6-10	4-8	3-5	+3	8	2
C. WallaceG · #22	16	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	-4	1	1
Bench
B. BarnhizerF · #23	3	0	0-1	—	—	-7	1	0
O. DiengF · #13	20	3	1-3	1-3	—	+17	2	4
K. WilliamsG · #34	28	15	4-11	1-7	6-6	+9	5	1
I. JoeG · #11	22	10	3-9	2-7	2-2	-1	1	2
A. WigginsG · #21	29	11	3-10	2-9	3-4	-10	3	4
Team		101	33-75	11-43	24-31		37	21
DNP: A. Caruso, C. Youngblood

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

OKC

Home

37-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

33-75

FG %

12-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-43

17-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-31

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

TOR leads series 1-0

Jan 26

TOR103@

OKC101today

Feb 25

OKC116@

TOR107

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+39020%

OKC-52084%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -11.5↗SpreadBet OKC -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat OKC 103-101. I. Quickley led with 23 PTS, 11 REB, 2 AST. TOR outscored the other side 29-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

OKC vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 38 REB · 19 AST

GS 62

Bench(4)

33 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 27

OKCstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 25 REB · 10 AST

GS 52

Bench(5)

39 PTS · 12 REB · 11 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 1:49 · 98-97

+17pp→ 55% WP

Immanuel Quickley · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)

TOR4th Quarter · 1:16 · 101-97

+17pp→ 83% WP

Immanuel Quickley · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)

TOR4th Quarter · 8.2 · 101-99

+15pp→ 88% WP

Scottie Barnes · offensive rebound

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	25	29	25	24	103
OKC	30	20	31	20	101

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · OKC won 2

Quickley 9

Dort 16

Ingram 6

Joe 6

Barrett 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 12

Quickley 11

Williams 7

TOR

OKC

Shooting comparison

TOR

OKC

43%

37-86

44%

33-75

35%

12-34

3PT

26%

11-43

65%

17-26

77%

24-31

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 103·OKC 101
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 103·OKC 101
Q4·1.0
Isaiah Joe makes 22-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
TOR 103·OKC 101
−11pp
Q4·4.7
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Aaron Wiggins
· ·
TOR 103·OKC 99
Q4·4.7
Ja'Kobe Walter personal foul
TOR 103·OKC 99
+4pp
Q4·8.2
Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 103·OKC 99
+3pp
Q4·8.2
Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 102·OKC 99
−1pp
Q4·8.2
Aaron Wiggins personal foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 101·OKC 99
−8pp
Q4·8.2
Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
TOR 101·OKC 99
Q4·8.2
Jaylin Williams enters the game for Kenrich Williams
·
TOR 101·OKC 99
Q4·8.2
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
TOR 101·OKC 99
Q4·8.2
Scottie Barnes offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 101·OKC 99
−15pp
Q4·13.0
Jamal Shead misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 101·OKC 99
+12pp
Q4·13.0
Raptors offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 101·OKC 99
+6pp
Q4·13.0
Jamal Shead misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 101·OKC 99
+4pp
Q4·13.0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal take foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 101·OKC 99
−11pp
Q4·21.7
Sandro Mamukelashvili enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 101·OKC 99
Q4·21.7
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 101·OKC 99
−0.7pp
Q4·26.2
Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
TOR 101·OKC 99
−3pp
Q4·28.6
Scottie Barnes blocks Chet Holmgren 's 7-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
TOR 101·OKC 99
−7pp
Q4·33.8
Thunder Full timeout
TOR 101·OKC 99
Q4·34.0
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
TOR 101·OKC 99
+2pp
Q4·37.3
Brandon Ingram misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 101·OKC 99
+4pp
Q4·57.2
Chet Holmgren makes two point shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 101·OKC 99
+6pp
Q4·57.2
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
TOR 101·OKC 97
+4pp
Q4·58.4
Kenrich Williams misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
·
TOR 101·OKC 97
−5pp
Q4·1:16
Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 101·OKC 97
−17pp
Q4·1:31
Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
TOR 98·OKC 97
−3pp
Q4·1:34
Aaron Wiggins misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
TOR 98·OKC 97
−9pp
Q4·1:49
Immanuel Quickley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 98·OKC 97
−17pp

Betting line

OKC -11.5·O/U 225.5·TOR +390/OKC -520

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Oklahoma City Thunder and beat them, 103–101. Decided by 2.

TOR +11.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 21.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OKC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

OKC

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

48.2%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

118.5

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

13.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.9

Data via ESPN · hoopR