DAL
26-56
MIL
32-50
NBA · Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
No player stats available yet.
No player stats available yet.
Season series
MIL leads series 1-0
MIL116@
DAL114DAL0@MIL0todayDAL99@MIL123Model & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIL -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
219.5
Standard · -6.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DAL+12045%MIL-14259%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
219.5
0.0 since open
Betting line
MIL -2.5·O/U 219.5·DAL +120/MIL -142
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DAL
league avg
MIL
52.7%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶56.5%
46.6%
FG%
47.0
▶47.7%
114.1
PPG
114.9
110.6
25.3
Assists / G
25.0
▶25.8
14.0
Turnovers / G
14.0
14.5