MLBEnd 1
PIT 0@PHI 0
-0.7ppmedium
LAST NIGHT · MLBD. Swanson (CHC): 3 H · 3 HR · 8 RBI in a win over SD — Standout Index 98
LAST NIGHT · MLBM. Conforto (CHC): 3 H · 2 HR · 4 RBI in a win over SD — Standout Index 93
LAST NIGHT · MLBT. Bradley (MIN): 5.0 IP · 11 K · 1 ER in a win over HOU
TRANSACTION · MLBBraves: Agreed to terms with OF Luis Consoro on a minor league contract (Jul 1)
TRANSACTION · MLBRoyals: Placed RHP Connor Seabold on the 15-day IL (Jul 1)
TRANSACTION · MLBPirates: Agreed to terms with SS Ryan McCarty on a minor league contract (Jul 1)
Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL
DEN

DEN

54-28

00
MEM

MEM

25-57

NBASun, Jan 25FinalSeriesDEN leads series 1-0VegasMEM -5.5

NBA · Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies · final

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Postponed

No player stats available yet.

Season series

DEN leads series 1-0

Nov 25DENDEN125@MEMMEM115
Jan 25DENDEN0@MEMMEM0today
Feb 12MEMMEM116@DENDEN122
Mar 19DENDEN118@MEMMEM125
Apr 9MEMMEM119@DENDEN136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MEM -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DENDEN+16038%
MEMMEM-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MEM -5.5↗SpreadBet MEM -5.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

Betting line

MEM -5.5·O/U 221.5·DEN +160/MEM -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DEN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MEM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Recent

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MEM win)

    34%

    weight

  • Pace Efficiency

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MEM win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MEM vs DEN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 120 high confidence

Points

  • Nikola JokicDEN
    26.6± 7.0high
  • Jamal MurrayDEN
    24.2± 8.1high
  • Ty JeromeMEM
    18.9± 4.2medium

Rebounds

  • Nikola JokicDEN
    12.5± 3.1high
  • Zach EdeyMEM
    11.3± 7.8low
  • Marvin Bagley IIIDEN
    5.9± 3.4high

Assists

  • Nikola JokicDEN
    9.7± 4.5high
  • Jamal MurrayDEN
    6.4± 1.9high
  • Ty JeromeMEM
    5.4± 2.7medium

Blocks

  • Zach EdeyMEM
    1.9± 2.3low
  • Nikola JokicDEN
    1.0± 1.0high
  • GG JacksonMEM
    0.9± 0.7high

Steals

  • Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM
    1.9± 2.1low
  • Taylor HendricksMEM
    1.5± 2.0high
  • Bruce BrownDEN
    1.3± 1.5high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DEN

DEN

league avg

MEM

MEM

57.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

49.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.6%

121.1

PPG

◀

114.9

114.7

28.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.8

12.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR