NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+15BOS

IND

10-35

104119

BOS

27-16

NBAWed, Jan 21FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBOS -10.5

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

24.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

BOS · top performer

Jaylen Brown

G · #7

22.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ BOS

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	33	32	12-21	4-7	4-6	-1	10	4
J. HuffC · #32	16	2	1-4	0-3	—	-6	3	1
A. NembhardG · #2	33	9	3-11	0-5	3-4	-6	4	9
A. NesmithG · #23	28	6	3-9	0-4	0-1	-28	3	4
J. FurphyG · #12	23	10	4-7	2-4	—	+8	8	2
Bench
I. JacksonF · #22	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	2	1
J. WalkerF · #5	29	19	7-14	3-7	2-2	-17	3	2
T. BradleyC · #13	6	2	1-5	—	—	-2	3	0
M. PotterC · #11	17	9	1-5	0-3	7-8	+2	2	1
T.J. McConnellG · #9	14	4	2-6	0-1	—	-19	3	3
B. SheppardG · #26	21	8	2-8	2-8	2-2	-3	0	2
Q. JacksonG · #29	6	3	1-2	1-2	—	-5	0	0
K. JonesG · #7	4	0	0-1	—	—	+6	1	2
Team		104	37-94	12-45	18-23		42	31

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	28	17	6-8	5-7	—	+13	6	3
N. QuetaC · #88	29	17	6-10	—	5-5	+8	9	0
D. WhiteG · #9	30	13	4-10	1-4	4-4	+18	5	5
J. BrownG · #7	34	30	11-22	1-2	7-9	+11	10	5
P. PritchardG · #11	33	10	4-12	1-5	1-1	+26	5	8
Bench
A. WilliamsF · #77	4	0	—	—	—	-6	0	0
L. GarzaC · #52	16	8	2-6	0-1	4-4	+13	6	0
A. SimonsG · #4	22	9	3-8	1-4	2-2	+2	4	2
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	2	2	1-2	0-1	—	-4	0	0
B. ScheiermanG · #55	14	5	2-4	1-2	—	-5	2	1
J. WalshG · #27	17	3	1-3	1-3	—	0	5	0
H. GonzalezG · #28	11	5	2-3	1-2	—	-1	2	0
Team		119	42-88	12-31	23-25		54	24
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

37-94

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-88

FG %

12-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-31

18-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS wins series 3-1

Dec 23

IND95@

BOS103

Dec 27

BOS140@

IND122

Jan 13

BOS96@

IND98

Jan 22

IND104@

BOS119today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

225.5

Standard · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

IND+36022%

BOS-47082%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗SpreadBet BOS -10.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

225.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat IND 119-104. J. Brown paced them with 30 PTS, 10 REB, 5 AST. BOS outscored the other side 30-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

BOS vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST

GS 45

Bench(8)

45 PTS · 14 REB · 11 AST

GS 32

BOSstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

87 PTS · 35 REB · 21 AST

GS 75

Bench(7)

32 PTS · 19 REB · 3 AST

GS 28

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	20	26	32	26	104
BOS	30	36	25	28	119

Period scoring

IND won 1 · BOS won 3

Siakam 9

Brown 7

Nembhard 7

Brown 10

Siakam 11

Furphy 11

Walker 10

Brown 7

IND

BOS

Shooting comparison

IND

BOS

39%

37-94

48%

42-88

27%

12-45

3PT

39%

12-31

78%

18-23

92%

23-25

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 104·BOS 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 104·BOS 119
Q4·0.1
Pacers offensive team rebound
IND 104·BOS 119
Q4·0.3
Isaiah Jackson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
IND 104·BOS 119
Q4·6.1
shot clock turnover
IND 104·BOS 119
Q4·30.8
Jarace Walker makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kam Jones assists)
·
IND 104·BOS 119
Q4·43.7
Baylor Scheierman makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot
IND 101·BOS 119
Q4·51.3
Jarace Walker makes driving layup (Micah Potter assists)
·
IND 101·BOS 117
Q4·1:12
Pacers defensive team rebound
IND 99·BOS 117
Q4·1:13
Ron Harper Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper
IND 99·BOS 117
Q4·1:26
Jordan Walsh defensive rebound
IND 99·BOS 117
Q4·1:29
Johnny Furphy misses 25-foot three point jumper
IND 99·BOS 117
Q4·1:30
Kam Jones offensive rebound
IND 99·BOS 117
Q4·1:33
Kam Jones misses driving floating jump shot
IND 99·BOS 117
Q4·1:43
Ron Harper Jr. makes 13-foot step back jumpshot
IND 99·BOS 117
Q4·2:02
Jarace Walker makes 26-foot running jump shot (Kam Jones assists)
·
IND 99·BOS 115
Q4·2:08
Hugo Gonzalez lost ball turnover (Jarace Walker steals)
·
IND 96·BOS 115
Q4·2:24
Micah Potter enters the game for Ben Sheppard
·
IND 96·BOS 115
Q4·2:24
Johnny Furphy personal take foul
IND 96·BOS 115
Q4·2:26
Ben Sheppard makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 96·BOS 115
Q4·2:26
Ron Harper Jr. enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
IND 95·BOS 115
Q4·2:26
Ben Sheppard makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 95·BOS 115
Q4·2:26
Amari Williams shooting foul
IND 94·BOS 115
Q4·2:39
Payton Pritchard makes driving layup
IND 94·BOS 115
Q4·2:56
Johnny Furphy makes dunk (Jarace Walker assists)
·
IND 94·BOS 113
Q4·3:01
Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound
·
IND 92·BOS 113
Q4·3:06
Baylor Scheierman misses 29-foot three point jumper
IND 92·BOS 113
Q4·3:23
Kam Jones out of bounds lost ball turnover
IND 92·BOS 113
Q4·3:23
Hugo Gonzalez enters the game for Derrick White
·
IND 92·BOS 113
Q4·3:32
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
IND 92·BOS 113

Betting line

BOS -10.5·O/U 225.5·IND +360/BOS -470

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics held off Indiana Pacers, 119–104.

BOS -10.5 cashed (won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 225.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Pascal SiakamIND · F
USG%30.096

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

IND

league avg

BOS

53.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.8%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.5%

112.4

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

27.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.6

13.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

11.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR