OKC
35-8
MIA
22-20
OKC · top performer
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
G · #2
39
Pts
4
Reb
3
Ast
MIA · top performer
Bam Adebayo
C · #13
30
Pts
12
Reb
4
Ast
Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 31.7
NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 30 | 14 | 6-12 | 0-2 | 2-3 | -8 | 11 | 2 | |
| 36 | 39 | 12-19 | 2-3 | 13-13 | -1 | 4 | 3 | |
| 22 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-2 | — | -11 | 4 | 0 | |
| 14 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-2 | — | +4 | 3 | 3 | |
| 22 | 9 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | -8 | 6 | 3 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 2 | 1-2 | — | — | +6 | 1 | 4 | |
| 21 | 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2-4 | +7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 0 | — | — | — | -1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 19 | 8 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| 28 | 18 | 7-10 | 4-7 | — | +6 | 6 | 1 | |
| 28 | 15 | 6-13 | 1-6 | 2-2 | -4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Team | 120 | 42-77 | 13-29 | 23-28 | 46 | 23 | ||
| DNP: O. Dieng, C. Youngblood | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 32 | 15 | 6-15 | 2-5 | 1-2 | +4 | 5 | 5 | |
| 32 | 30 | 9-22 | 6-10 | 6-6 | +11 | 12 | 4 | |
| 35 | 19 | 5-15 | 5-12 | 4-7 | +7 | 4 | 4 | |
| 30 | 16 | 7-15 | 0-3 | 2-4 | +4 | 3 | 2 | |
| 27 | 3 | 1-7 | 1-4 | — | +4 | 5 | 7 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 13 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 3-3 | -5 | 5 | 3 | |
| 15 | 11 | 4-4 | 3-3 | — | +6 | 5 | 1 | |
| 15 | 3 | 1-7 | 0-4 | 1-2 | -7 | 1 | 2 | |
| 16 | 7 | 3-11 | 1-3 | — | -9 | 9 | 0 | |
| 21 | 5 | 1-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | -5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Team | 122 | 41-111 | 20-50 | 20-28 | 51 | 30 | ||
| DNP: K. Johnson, J. Jaquez Jr., D. Mitchell, T. Herro | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
55
FG %
37
23
Ast
30
Team stats
OKC
Away
Stat
MIA
Home
42-77
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
41-111
55
FG %
37
13-29
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
20-50
23-28
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
20-28
23
Assists
30
14
Turnovers
4
Season series
Series tied 1-1
MIA112@OKC124OKC120@MIA122todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OKC -11.5
Between 10 and —
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
OKC-52084%MIA+39020%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
11.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIA beat OKC 122-120. B. Adebayo paced them with 30 PTS, 12 REB, 4 AST. Andrew Wiggins's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIA vs OKC
Starters vs bench
production by unitOKCstarters 60% of ptsStarters(5)
72 PTS · 28 REB · 11 AST
GS 62
Bench(6)
48 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 37
MIAstarters 68% of ptsStarters(5)
83 PTS · 29 REB · 22 AST
GS 66
Bench(5)
39 PTS · 22 REB · 8 AST
GS 34
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactShai Gilgeous-Alexander · makes 25-foot three pointer
Bam Adebayo · misses 2-foot tip shot
Andrew Wiggins · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 37 | 28 | 30 | 25 | 120 |
| MIA | 30 | 30 | 35 | 27 | 122 |
Period scoring
OKC won 1 · MIA won 3
Q1
Gilgeous-Alexander 10
Fontecchio 15
Q2
Wiggins 10
Gardner 9
Q3
Gilgeous-Alexander 12
Powell 9
Q4
Gilgeous-Alexander 9
Full 19
Shooting comparison
55%
42-77
FG
37%
41-111
45%
13-29
3PT
40%
20-50
82%
23-28
FT
71%
20-28
Play-by-play · 518 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 120·MIA 122
+0.6pp
- Q4·0.2
Thunder offensive team rebound
OKC 120·MIA 122
+3pp
- Q4·2.0
Alex Caruso misses 25-foot jump bank shotBIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 122
+5pp
- Q4·3.0
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Cason Wallace
· ·
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·3.0
Dru Smith enters the game for Simone Fontecchio
·
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·3.0
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·3.0
Chet Holmgren defensive reboundBIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 122
+7pp
- Q4·5.9
Andrew Wiggins misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
·
OKC 120·MIA 122
+4pp
- Q4·21.9
Cason Wallace enters the game for Aaron Wiggins
· ·
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·21.9
Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Dru Smith
·
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·21.9
Heat Full timeout
OKC 120·MIA 122
+1pp
- Q4·27.6
Bam Adebayo defensive rebound
OKC 120·MIA 122
+4pp
- Q4·29.5
Chet Holmgren misses alley oop dunkBIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 122
+10pp
- Q4·31.0
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Cason Wallace
· ·
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·31.0
Dru Smith enters the game for Simone Fontecchio
·
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·31.0
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 120·MIA 122
- Q4·31.7
Andrew Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Norman Powell assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
OKC 120·MIA 122
+20pp
- Q4·38.7
Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Dru Smith
·
OKC 120·MIA 119
- Q4·38.7
Cason Wallace enters the game for Aaron Wiggins
· ·
OKC 120·MIA 119
- Q4·38.7
Heat Full timeoutBIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 119
+18pp
- Q4·38.7
Heat defensive team rebound
OKC 120·MIA 119
+3pp
- Q4·42.6
Ajay Mitchell misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
·
OKC 120·MIA 119
+8pp
- Q4·57.5
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 119
−9pp
- Q4·57.5
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 118
+10pp
- Q4·57.5
Ajay Mitchell shooting foulBIG MOMENT
·
OKC 120·MIA 117
+8pp
- Q4·57.5
Bam Adebayo offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 117
+7pp
- Q4·1:00
Norman Powell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 117
−7pp
- Q4·1:14
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive foul turnover
OKC 120·MIA 117
- Q4·1:14
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive foulBIG MOMENT
OKC 120·MIA 117
+8pp
Betting line
OKC -11.5·O/U 235.5·OKC -520/MIA +390
Recap · NBA
iami Heat held off Oklahoma City Thunder, 122–120. Decided by 2.
MIA +11.5 cashed (OKC lost outright). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohort
Cason WallaceOKC · GDEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · CCONT10.799+- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · GDRIVES18.399
Jalen WilliamsOKC · GDRIVES12.594
Andrew WigginsMIA · FCONT7.693
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · OKC favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIA vs OKC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
140
projections · 125 high confidence
Points
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC27.7± 6.8high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA25.0± 4.5high
- Bam AdebayoMIA18.4± 7.8high
Rebounds
- Bam AdebayoMIA10.3± 3.7high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA9.9± 4.4high
- Isaiah HartensteinOKC8.6± 3.9high
Assists
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC7.6± 3.1high
- Davion MitchellMIA5.9± 2.8high
- Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA5.1± 2.6high
Blocks
- Chet HolmgrenOKC1.4± 0.9high
- Andrew WigginsMIA0.9± 0.9high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC0.8± 0.8high
Steals
- Cason WallaceOKC2.0± 1.0high
- Alex CarusoOKC1.5± 1.1high
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC1.5± 1.5high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
OKC
league avg
MIA
55.9%
Effective FG%
54.4
54.2%
48.2%
FG%
47.0
46.8%
118.5
PPG
114.9
▶120.9
25.8
Assists / G
25.0
▶29.0
11.9
Turnovers / G
14.0
13.0