NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DET

PHX

24-17

105108

DET

29-10

NBAThu, Jan 15FinalSeriesDET leads series 1-0VegasDET -7.5

PHX · top performer

Grayson Allen

G · #8

20.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

DET · top performer

Tobias Harris

F · #12

20.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHX ↔ DET

Biggest swing: 40pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:27

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	29	11	4-11	3-8	0-2	-9	7	7
D. BrooksF · #3	28	16	4-16	2-6	6-7	-17	1	1
M. WilliamsC · #15	22	5	2-4	—	1-2	-11	6	2
G. AllenG · #8	31	33	11-25	7-20	4-4	-10	5	0
C. GillespieG · #12	36	18	6-10	4-6	2-3	0	2	6
Bench
I. LiversF · #18	14	0	0-1	0-1	—	+10	2	1
O. IghodaroF · #11	26	10	4-8	—	2-5	+8	3	0
R. DunnF · #0	19	5	2-4	1-3	—	+2	3	1
R. FlemingF · #20	3	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
J. GoodwinG · #23	32	7	3-8	0-2	1-2	+14	12	3
Team		105	36-87	17-46	16-25		41	21
DNP: N. Hayes-Davis, N. Richards, K. Maluach

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	29	16	6-11	0-2	4-4	+22	7	2
D. RobinsonF · #55	27	19	7-12	4-7	1-3	+12	1	0
J. DurenC · #0	28	16	8-13	—	0-1	+23	18	2
C. CunninghamG · #2	38	10	3-16	0-7	4-9	+9	4	11
A. ThompsonG · #9	19	5	2-6	0-1	1-2	+1	6	2
Bench
I. StewartF · #28	22	4	0-2	0-2	4-4	-25	4	0
R. Holland IIF · #5	21	11	3-6	0-2	5-9	-12	9	1
J. GreenG · #31	16	5	1-5	1-5	2-3	-10	0	0
C. LeVertG · #8	16	2	1-1	—	—	-8	3	3
J. IveyG · #23	17	15	6-8	3-5	—	-4	2	1
D. JenkinsG · #24	6	5	1-1	1-1	2-2	+7	0	3
Team		108	38-81	9-32	23-37		54	25
DNP: W. Moore Jr., M. Sasser

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

DET

Home

36-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-81

FG %

17-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-32

16-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-37

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET leads series 1-0

Jan 16

PHX105@

DET108today

Jan 30

DET96@

PHX114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

219.5

Standard · -6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX+21532%

DET-26573%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -7.5↗SpreadBet DET -7.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

219.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat PHX 108-105. T. Harris led with 16 PTS, 7 REB, 2 AST. PHX outscored the other side 32-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

DET vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 21 REB · 16 AST

GS 56

Bench(5)

22 PTS · 20 REB · 5 AST

GS 27

DETstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 36 REB · 17 AST

GS 58

Bench(6)

42 PTS · 18 REB · 8 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET2nd Quarter · 10:19 · 36-27

+19pp→ 42% WP

Pistons de · lay of game violation

DET2nd Quarter · 2:27 · 55-51

+19pp→ 57% WP

Dillon Brooks · personal foul

PHX2nd Quarter · 2:27 · 55-51

+40pp→ 43% WP

Isaiah Stewart · enters the game for Jalen Duren

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	32	31	27	15	105
DET	23	33	33	19	108

Period scoring

PHX won 1 · DET won 3

Allen 13

Ivey 8

Allen 8

Robinson 7

Gillespie 8

Cunningham 29

Allen 7

Duren 4

PHX

DET

Shooting comparison

PHX

DET

41%

36-87

47%

38-81

37%

17-46

3PT

28%

9-32

64%

16-25

62%

23-37

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 105·DET 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 105·DET 108
Q4·0.1
Suns offensive team rebound
PHX 105·DET 108
+0.5pp
Q4·0.7
Grayson Allen misses 26-foot three point shot
PHX 105·DET 108
+3pp
Q4·2.0
Grayson Allen enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
PHX 105·DET 108
−3pp
Q4·2.0
Duncan Robinson makes free throw 2 of 2
PHX 105·DET 108
Q4·2.0
Ausar Thompson enters the game for Jaden Ivey
·
PHX 105·DET 107
Q4·2.0
Ronald Holland II enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
PHX 105·DET 107
Q4·2.0
Pistons offensive team rebound
PHX 105·DET 107
−1pp
Q4·2.0
Duncan Robinson misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 105·DET 107
−0.8pp
Q4·2.0
Jordan Goodwin personal foul
PHX 105·DET 107
+4pp
Q4·3.1
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Grayson Allen
·
PHX 105·DET 107
Q4·3.1
Jaden Ivey enters the game for Javonte Green
·
PHX 105·DET 107
Q4·3.1
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Ausar Thompson
·
PHX 105·DET 107
Q4·3.1
Tobias Harris enters the game for Ronald Holland II
·
PHX 105·DET 107
Q4·3.1
Pistons Full timeout
PHX 105·DET 107
Q4·3.1
Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Royce O'Neale assists)
·
PHX 105·DET 107
−2pp
Q4·6.6
Grayson Allen enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
PHX 102·DET 107
Q4·6.6
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Mark Williams
·
PHX 102·DET 107
Q4·6.6
Suns Full timeout
PHX 102·DET 107
Q4·6.6
Mark Williams defensive rebound
PHX 102·DET 107
Q4·7.6
Ronald Holland II misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 102·DET 107
−2pp
Q4·7.6
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Grayson Allen
·
PHX 102·DET 107
Q4·7.6
Mark Williams enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
PHX 102·DET 107
Q4·7.6
Pistons offensive team rebound
PHX 102·DET 107
−0.5pp
Q4·7.6
Ronald Holland II misses free throw 1 of 2
PHX 102·DET 107
Q4·7.6
Jordan Goodwin personal take foul
PHX 102·DET 107
+0.8pp
Q4·7.6
Ronald Holland II defensive rebound
PHX 102·DET 107
+1pp
Q4·9.7
Grayson Allen misses 26-foot three point jumper
PHX 102·DET 107
+3pp
Q4·13.2
Grayson Allen enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
PHX 102·DET 107

Betting line

DET -7.5·O/U 219.5·PHX +215/DET -265

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons held off Phoenix Suns, 108–105. Decided by 3.

PHX +7.5 cashed (DET won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 219.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Mark WilliamsPHX · C
CONT8.496
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

DET vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
John CollinsDET
5.8± 2.5high
Miles BridgesPHX
5.8± 3.6high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Daniss JenkinsDET
3.5± 1.0high

Blocks

Jalen DurenDET
1.0± 1.1high
Paul ReedDET
0.9± 1.3high
Oso IghodaroPHX
0.8± 0.7high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Duncan RobinsonDET
1.2± 1.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

DET

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

54.2%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.0%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

115.9

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.0

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR