NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2IND

BOS

24-15

9698

IND

9-31

NBAMon, Jan 12FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-1VegasBOS -5.5

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

20.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Pascal Siakam

F · #43

21.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 36pp · 4th Quarter · 1.9

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	33	8	2-7	2-7	2-2	-6	8	1
N. QuetaC · #88	32	15	7-9	—	1-3	-12	8	2
D. WhiteG · #9	36	18	7-21	2-9	2-2	+1	4	5
P. PritchardG · #11	37	23	10-22	3-7	—	+1	4	8
B. ScheiermanG · #55	20	2	0-3	0-2	2-2	-8	3	0
Bench
L. GarzaC · #52	16	6	3-4	—	—	+10	6	1
A. SimonsG · #4	24	16	7-15	2-7	—	-4	3	4
J. WalshG · #27	26	6	3-5	0-2	—	+4	9	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	15	2	1-2	0-1	—	+4	1	0
Team		96	40-88	9-35	7-9		46	22
DNP: C. Boucher, X. Tillman, A. Williams, J. Brown, R. Harper Jr., M. Shulga

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. SiakamF · #43	34	21	10-15	0-1	1-2	+11	8	6
J. HuffC · #32	28	20	8-12	4-7	—	+20	3	2
A. NembhardG · #2	33	13	5-14	3-5	—	+12	6	9
A. NesmithG · #23	32	6	2-9	2-6	—	-8	5	2
J. FurphyG · #12	16	4	1-1	—	2-2	+12	5	1
Bench
J. WalkerF · #5	25	11	4-9	3-5	—	-5	7	1
T. BradleyC · #13	6	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
M. PotterC · #11	13	5	2-6	1-3	—	-11	4	1
T.J. McConnellG · #9	15	5	2-5	—	1-2	-10	0	5
B. SheppardG · #26	23	5	2-8	1-6	—	-16	2	1
Q. JacksonG · #29	15	8	3-5	2-4	—	+6	0	1
Team		98	39-84	16-37	4-6		40	29
DNP: E. Thompson, K. Jones

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

IND

Home

40-88

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-84

FG %

9-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-37

7-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

4-6

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 2-1

Dec 23

IND95@

BOS103

Dec 27

BOS140@

IND122

Jan 13

BOS96@

IND98today

Jan 22

IND104@

BOS119

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-20567%

IND+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗SpreadBet BOS -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat BOS 98-96. P. Siakam led with 21 PTS, 8 REB, 6 AST. Derrick White's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 27 REB · 16 AST

GS 51

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 19 REB · 6 AST

GS 26

INDstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 27 REB · 20 AST

GS 58

Bench(6)

34 PTS · 13 REB · 9 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

BOS4th Quarter · 29.1 · 96-96

+19pp→ 48% WP

Derrick White · makes 6-foot two point shot

IND4th Quarter · 6.8 · 96-98

+29pp→ 81% WP

Pascal Siakam · makes 7-foot two point shot

IND4th Quarter · 1.9 · 96-98

+36pp→ 96% WP

Derrick White · misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	24	32	21	19	96
IND	19	34	26	19	98

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · IND won 2

Queta 6

Sheppard 5

Simons 12

Huff 10

Pritchard 11

Nembhard 10

Queta 5

Siakam 6

BOS

IND

Shooting comparison

BOS

IND

45%

40-88

46%

39-84

26%

9-35

3PT

43%

16-37

78%

7-9

67%

4-6

Play-by-play · 405 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 96·IND 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 96·IND 98
+3pp
Q4·1.9
Jarace Walker defensive rebound
BOS 96·IND 98
+0.7pp
Q4·1.9
Derrick White misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 96·IND 98
+36pp
Q4·5.1
Andrew Nembhard personal take foulBIG MOMENT
BOS 96·IND 98
−23pp
Q4·6.1
Baylor Scheierman enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 96·IND 98
Q4·6.1
Anfernee Simons enters the game for Jordan Walsh
·
BOS 96·IND 98
Q4·6.1
Jarace Walker enters the game for Jay Huff
·
BOS 96·IND 98
Q4·6.1
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 96·IND 98
+2pp
Q4·6.8
Pascal Siakam makes 7-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 96·IND 98
+30pp
Q4·28.6
Neemias Queta enters the game for Anfernee Simons
·
BOS 96·IND 96
Q4·28.6
Jordan Walsh enters the game for Luka Garza
·
BOS 96·IND 96
Q4·28.6
Jay Huff enters the game for Jarace Walker
·
BOS 96·IND 96
Q4·28.6
Pacers Full timeout
BOS 96·IND 96
Q4·29.1
Derrick White makes 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 96·IND 96
−19pp
Q4·33.2
Anfernee Simons enters the game for Neemias Queta
·
BOS 94·IND 96
Q4·33.2
Luka Garza enters the game for Jordan Walsh
·
BOS 94·IND 96
Q4·33.2
Jarace Walker enters the game for Jay Huff
·
BOS 94·IND 96
Q4·33.2
Celtics Full timeout
BOS 94·IND 96
Q4·33.9
Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
BOS 94·IND 96
−2pp
Q4·37.0
Andrew Nembhard misses 16-foot step back jumpshot
BOS 94·IND 96
−4pp
Q4·56.0
Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound
BOS 94·IND 96
+3pp
Q4·58.0
Pascal Siakam blocks Payton Pritchard 's 4-foot driving layupBIG MOMENT
·
BOS 94·IND 96
+9pp
Q4·1:05
Payton Pritchard defensive rebound
BOS 94·IND 96
−3pp
Q4·1:07
Andrew Nembhard misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
BOS 94·IND 96
−7pp
Q4·1:30
Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound
BOS 94·IND 96
+3pp
Q4·1:33
Derrick White misses 16-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
BOS 94·IND 96
+8pp
Q4·1:46
Neemias Queta defensive rebound
BOS 94·IND 96
−2pp
Q4·1:49
Andrew Nembhard misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
BOS 94·IND 96
−6pp
Q4·2:16
Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)BIG MOMENT
·
BOS 94·IND 96
−13pp

Betting line

BOS -5.5·O/U 227.5·BOS -205/IND +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ndiana Pacers held off Boston Celtics, 98–96. Decided by 2.

IND +5.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 33.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Andrew NembhardIND · G
TOUCHES87.498
Neemias QuetaBOS · C
CONT9.197
Jay HuffIND · C
CONT8.796
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Micah PotterIND · C
TS%67.996

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

IND

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.3%

46.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.8%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

112.4

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.7

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR