NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9NY

25-14

123114

POR

19-21

NBASun, Jan 11FinalSeriesNY leads series 1-0VegasNY -5.5

NY · top performer

Jalen Brunson

G · #11

21.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Deni Avdija

F · #8

17.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 15pp · 4th Quarter · 4:15

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	34	24	9-15	4-7	2-2	+10	7	3
K. TownsC · #32	28	20	9-13	2-3	0-1	-3	11	3
J. HartG · #3	31	18	7-15	3-5	1-2	0	3	6
M. BridgesG · #25	34	18	8-15	2-7	—	+18	6	6
J. BrunsonG · #11	37	26	10-19	3-9	3-3	+18	6	8
Bench
M. DiawaraF · #51	3	0	—	—	—	-3	1	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	25	6	3-5	—	—	+11	11	2
J. ClarksonG · #00	13	3	1-6	1-6	—	-7	0	1
M. McBrideG · #2	35	8	3-11	2-9	—	+1	0	3
Team		123	50-99	17-46	6-8		45	32
DNP: P. Dadiet, A. Hukporti, K. McCullar Jr., T. Kolek

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. CamaraF · #33	39	11	3-8	1-5	4-4	-20	6	2
D. AvdijaF · #8	38	25	8-17	1-5	8-10	-13	5	4
D. ClinganC · #23	30	8	3-6	0-2	2-2	-23	8	1
S. SharpeG · #17	35	23	9-17	1-6	4-4	+3	6	3
S. CissokoG · #91	28	5	2-6	1-4	—	+3	2	3
Bench
R. Williams IIIC · #35	16	12	5-5	1-1	1-1	+15	4	2
J. HolidayG · #5	16	8	2-7	2-4	2-2	+4	2	4
C. LoveG · #2	29	21	8-18	5-12	—	-11	4	4
R. RupertG · #21	10	1	—	—	1-2	-3	2	1
Team		114	40-84	12-39	22-25		39	24
DNP: J. Grant, K. Murray, D. Reath, Y. Hansen, M. Thybulle, S. Henderson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

POR

Home

50-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-84

FG %

17-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-39

6-8

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 1-0

Jan 11

NY123@

POR114today

Jan 31

POR97@

NY127

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -5.5

Half-pt above key 5

Total

230.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-21869%

POR+18036%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -5.5↗SpreadBet NY -5.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

5.5

0.0 since open

Total

230.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat POR 123-114. J. Brunson paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 8 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 86% of pts

Starters(5)

106 PTS · 33 REB · 26 AST

GS 93

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

PORstarters 63% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 27 REB · 13 AST

GS 57

Bench(4)

42 PTS · 12 REB · 11 AST

GS 39

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR4th Quarter · 9:24 · 92-94

+11pp→ 67% WP

Josh Hart · shooting foul

NY4th Quarter · 8:21 · 99-97

+11pp→ 59% WP

Mikal Bridges · makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jalen Brunson assists)

NY4th Quarter · 4:15 · 106-104

+15pp→ 60% WP

OG Anunoby · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	34	31	25	33	123
POR	34	26	25	29	114

Period scoring

NY won 2 · POR won 0

Hart 8

Sharpe 8

Towns 10

Avdija 6

Brunson 8

Avdija 13

Anunoby 14

Sharpe 7

POR

Shooting comparison

POR

51%

50-99

48%

40-84

37%

17-46

3PT

31%

12-39

75%

6-8

88%

22-25

Play-by-play · 459 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 123·POR 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 123·POR 114
Q4·15.8
Toumani Camara makes driving dunk
NY 123·POR 114
Q4·16.8
Josh Hart bad pass turnover (Toumani Camara steals)
·
NY 123·POR 112
Q4·27.4
OG Anunoby defensive rebound
NY 123·POR 112
Q4·30.6
Caleb Love misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
NY 123·POR 112
Q4·35.1
OG Anunoby makes 1-foot dunk (Miles McBride assists)
·
NY 123·POR 112
Q4·42.5
Knicks Full timeout
NY 121·POR 112
Q4·47.1
Jalen Brunson defensive rebound
NY 121·POR 112
Q4·48.8
Shaedon Sharpe misses driving layup
NY 121·POR 112
−0.7pp
Q4·56.2
OG Anunoby makes tip shot
NY 121·POR 112
−0.8pp
Q4·56.2
OG Anunoby offensive rebound
NY 119·POR 112
−2pp
Q4·56.6
Josh Hart misses driving layup
NY 119·POR 112
+1pp
Q4·1:15
Josh Hart defensive rebound
NY 119·POR 112
−0.7pp
Q4·1:17
Jrue Holiday misses 11-foot fade away jump shot
NY 119·POR 112
−2pp
Q4·1:25
Josh Hart makes 11-foot two point shot
NY 119·POR 112
−4pp
Q4·1:48
Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
NY 117·POR 112
+6pp
Q4·1:53
Miles McBride enters the game for Mitchell Robinson
·
NY 117·POR 109
Q4·1:53
Sidy Cissoko enters the game for Deni Avdija
·
NY 117·POR 109
Q4·1:53
Trail Blazers Full timeout
NY 117·POR 109
Q4·1:56
Deni Avdija defensive rebound
NY 117·POR 109
Q4·1:59
Mikal Bridges misses 24-foot three point jumper
NY 117·POR 109
+1pp
Q4·2:16
Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 117·POR 109
−2pp
Q4·2:16
Caleb Love enters the game for Donovan Clingan
·
NY 117·POR 108
Q4·2:16
Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 117·POR 108
+0.5pp
Q4·2:16
Jalen Brunson shooting foul
NY 117·POR 107
+2pp
Q4·2:23
Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)
·
NY 117·POR 107
−4pp
Q4·2:43
Jrue Holiday makes 25-foot three pointer
NY 114·POR 107
+3pp
Q4·2:53
Josh Hart makes running layup
NY 114·POR 104
−2pp
Q4·2:55
Shaedon Sharpe bad pass turnover (Josh Hart steals)
·
NY 112·POR 104
−3pp

Betting line

NY -5.5·O/U 230.5·NY -218/POR +180

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks went into Portland Trail Blazers and beat them, 123–114.

NY -5.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 230.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Deni AvdijaPOR · F
DRIVES20.899+
Robert Williams IIIPOR · C
TS%72.299
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

POR vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
Deni AvdijaPOR
25.3± 7.7high
Ja MorantPOR
19.6± 8.8high

Rebounds

Donovan ClinganPOR
10.3± 2.7high
Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
7.4± 1.6high

Assists

Ja MorantPOR
8.1± 3.9high
Deni AvdijaPOR
6.3± 3.2high
Jrue HolidayPOR
6.3± 3.0high

Blocks

Donovan ClinganPOR
1.5± 1.2high
Robert Williams IIIPOR
1.1± 0.9high
OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high

Steals

Matisse ThybullePOR
1.7± 1.8high
Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

POR

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.0%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.1%

116.4

PPG

◀

114.9

114.6

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

12.7

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

16.2

Data via ESPN · hoopR