NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+16SA

LAL

23-12

91107

26-11

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriesSA leads series 2-1VegasSA -8.5

LAL · top performer

Luka Doncic

G · #77

27.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Keldon Johnson

F · #3

23.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 9pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:13

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. VanderbiltF · #2	19	4	2-6	0-3	—	0	0	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	39	16	6-13	4-9	—	-13	7	1
D. AytonC · #5	29	9	4-9	—	1-2	-9	6	1
M. SmartG · #36	34	2	1-6	0-3	—	-12	7	1
L. DoncicG · #77	38	38	13-26	2-9	10-16	-7	10	10
Bench
M. KleberF · #14	12	1	0-3	—	1-2	-3	3	0
D. TimmeF · #17	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	0	0
D. KnechtF · #4	19	2	1-6	0-5	—	-15	3	0
J. HayesC · #11	18	10	4-4	—	2-2	-7	7	0
G. VincentG · #7	18	6	2-8	2-7	—	-10	2	2
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	10	3	1-4	1-2	—	-4	0	1
B. JamesG · #9	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
C. ManonG · #30	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		91	34-86	9-39	14-22		45	16

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	30	7	2-5	0-1	3-4	+16	0	6
J. ChampagnieF · #30	34	11	3-11	0-6	5-6	+18	9	3
L. KornetC · #7	21	7	2-5	—	3-4	+7	6	1
D. FoxG · #4	34	14	5-14	0-6	4-4	+12	3	5
S. CastleG · #5	29	15	6-10	0-2	3-3	+9	5	4
Bench
L. Waters IIIF · #43	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	28	27	11-13	2-3	3-3	+14	6	0
J. SochanF · #10	11	6	2-2	2-2	—	-1	0	1
D. Jones GarciaF · #25	1	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
C. BryantF · #11	5	2	1-1	—	—	-2	2	0
V. WembanyamaF · #1	26	16	7-15	0-3	2-4	+9	14	2
B. BiyomboC · #18	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
D. HarperG · #2	20	2	1-6	0-2	—	-2	4	2
Team		107	40-82	4-25	23-28		50	24
DNP: K. Olynyk, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

Home

34-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-82

FG %

9-39

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-25

14-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

23-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 2-1

Nov 6

SA116@

LAL118

Dec 11

SA132@

LAL119

Jan 8

LAL91@

SA107today

Feb 11

SA136@

LAL108

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL+25029%

SA-31076%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -8.5↗SpreadBet SA -8.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat LAL 107-91. K. Johnson paced them with 27 PTS, 6 REB, 0 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 30 REB · 13 AST

GS 44

Bench(8)

22 PTS · 15 REB · 3 AST

GS 11

SAstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 45

Bench(8)

53 PTS · 27 REB · 5 AST

GS 45

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL2nd Quarter · 7:44 · 32-30

+6pp→ 42% WP

Jake LaRavia · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)

SA2nd Quarter · 0.0 · 43-48

+6pp→ 76% WP

Jake LaRavia · misses 26-foot three point shot

SA3rd Quarter · 5:13 · 59-64

+9pp→ 77% WP

Luka Doncic · double dribble turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAL	23	20	25	23	91
SA	26	22	31	28	107

Period scoring

LAL won 0 · SA won 4

Doncic 12

Champagnie 7

Doncic 10

Johnson 12

Doncic 11

Fox 8

LaRavia 8

Wembanyama 11

LAL

Shooting comparison

LAL

40%

34-86

49%

40-82

23%

9-39

3PT

16%

4-25

64%

14-22

82%

23-28

Play-by-play · 500 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·0.0
Lakers offensive team rebound
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·0.0
Drew Timme misses 26-foot three point jumper
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·7.6
shot clock turnover
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·31.2
David Jones Garcia defensive rebound
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·34.1
Dalton Knecht misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Drew Timme enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Bronny James enters the game for Luka Doncic
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Chris Manon enters the game for Marcus Smart
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Jake LaRavia
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Dalton Knecht enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
David Jones Garcia enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Dylan Harper enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Carter Bryant enters the game for Keldon Johnson
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·51.1
Keldon Johnson makes 1-foot two point shot (Victor Wembanyama assists)
·
LAL 91·SA 107
Q4·57.2
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
LAL 91·SA 105
Q4·59.0
Marcus Smart misses driving floating jump shot
LAL 91·SA 105
Q4·1:14
Victor Wembanyama makes 16-foot fade away jump shot
LAL 91·SA 105
Q4·1:37
Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
LAL 91·SA 103
Q4·1:38
Jarred Vanderbilt misses 22-foot three point jumper
LAL 91·SA 103
Q4·1:57
Victor Wembanyama makes 13-foot two point shot
LAL 91·SA 103
Q4·2:06
Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
LAL 91·SA 101
Q4·2:10
Jake LaRavia misses 25-foot three point jumper
LAL 91·SA 101
+0.5pp
Q4·2:12
Deandre Ayton offensive rebound
LAL 91·SA 101
−0.5pp
Q4·2:14
Luka Doncic misses two point shot
LAL 91·SA 101
+0.6pp
Q4·2:20
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
LAL 91·SA 101

Betting line

SA -8.5·O/U 233.5·LAL +250/SA -310

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off Los Angeles Lakers, 107–91.

SA -8.5 cashed (won by 16). Total stayed UNDER 233.5 by 35.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Luke KornetSA · C
TS%68.797
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Keldon JohnsonSA · F
TS%61.377

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Austin ReavesLAL
21.0± 6.8high
Collin SextonLAL
17.9± 4.5high

Rebounds

Walker KesslerLAL
10.7± 2.2low
Luka DoncicLAL
7.1± 2.1high
Tobias HarrisSA
6.4± 1.8high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Walker KesslerLAL
1.8± 2.5low
Austin ReavesLAL
0.7± 1.0high
Jake LaRaviaLAL
0.6± 0.5high

Steals

Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Collin SextonLAL
1.6± 1.3high
Walker KesslerLAL
1.5± 1.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.7%

114.8

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

25.7

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

14.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR