NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

23-15

9796

CHA

13-24

NBAWed, Jan 7FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasTOR -2.5

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

17.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHA · top performer

Collin Sexton

G · #8

12.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CHA

Biggest swing: 95pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	11	6	2-7	0-2	2-2	-5	0	2
R. BarrettF · #9	35	28	12-25	1-7	3-5	-1	7	1
S. BarnesF · #4	29	17	6-14	0-2	5-6	-2	4	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	32	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+2	15	3
I. QuickleyG · #5	33	21	8-18	3-11	2-4	+3	4	2
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	25	10	4-8	2-4	—	+10	3	2
J. BattleF · #77	8	2	1-2	0-1	—	+1	1	0
O. AgbajiG · #30	12	2	1-3	—	—	-12	4	0
J. SheadG · #23	24	4	2-7	0-2	—	+8	1	6
J. WalterG · #14	19	3	1-4	1-4	—	+1	2	2
G. DickG · #1	12	0	0-1	—	—	0	1	0
Team		97	38-92	7-34	14-19		42	18
DNP: J. Mogbo, G. Temple

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BridgesF · #0	30	12	4-9	2-5	2-2	+9	3	5
M. DiabateF · #14	30	6	2-4	—	2-2	0	11	1
L. BallG · #1	25	15	7-20	1-7	—	+17	7	7
S. JamesG · #4	28	8	2-4	2-2	2-2	0	2	3
K. KnueppelG · #7	33	11	4-17	3-11	—	+3	8	3
Bench
T. SalaunF · #31	21	4	1-4	1-2	1-2	-15	6	0
P. HallC · #16	15	8	3-5	—	2-3	+1	7	0
C. SextonG · #8	24	22	7-13	3-5	5-5	-3	2	0
J. GreenG · #10	13	3	1-2	1-2	—	-15	2	0
L. McNeeleyG · #33	21	7	1-4	1-4	4-6	-2	2	0
Team		96	32-82	14-38	18-22		50	19
DNP: P. Connaughton, T. Mann

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CHA

Home

38-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-82

FG %

7-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-38

14-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-22

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 18

CHA108@

TOR110

Nov 29

TOR111@

CHA118

Dec 6

CHA111@

TOR86

Jan 8

TOR97@

CHA96today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TOR -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

229.5

Standard · +3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR-13557%

CHA+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TOR -2.5↗SpreadBet TOR -2.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

229.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat CHA 97-96. R. Barrett paced them with 28 PTS, 7 REB, 1 AST. CHA outscored the other side 28-20 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHA vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

76 PTS · 30 REB · 8 AST

GS 59

Bench(6)

21 PTS · 12 REB · 10 AST

GS 15

CHAstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 31 REB · 19 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

44 PTS · 19 REB · 0 AST

GS 22

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHA4th Quarter · 1.6 · 94-96

+41pp→ 95% WP

LaMelo Ball · makes driving layup

TOR4th Quarter · 0.0 · 97-96

+95pp→ 100% WP

Immanuel Quickley · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)

CHA4th Quarter · 10:05 · 68-78

+91pp→ 91% WP

Collin Murray-Boyles · enters the game for Scottie Barnes

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	25	20	21	31	97
CHA	22	28	22	24	96

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · CHA won 2

Barnes 8

James 6

Barnes 7

Sexton 7

Barrett 6

Ball 7

Barrett 16

Sexton 8

TOR

CHA

Shooting comparison

TOR

CHA

41%

38-92

39%

32-82

21%

7-34

3PT

37%

14-38

74%

14-19

82%

18-22

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 97·CHA 96
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 97·CHA 96
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
TOR 97·CHA 96
Q4·0.0
Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 97·CHA 96
−95pp
Q4·1.6
Hornets Full timeout
TOR 94·CHA 96
Q4·1.6
Tidjane Salaun enters the game for LaMelo Ball
·
TOR 94·CHA 96
Q4·1.6
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 94·CHA 96
Q4·1.6
LaMelo Ball makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
TOR 94·CHA 96
+41pp
Q4·20.1
RJ Barrett makes 8-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 94·CHA 94
−11pp
Q4·35.8
Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 92·CHA 94
−10pp
Q4·35.8
Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 92·CHA 93
+3pp
Q4·35.8
Sandro Mamukelashvili shooting foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 92·CHA 92
+18pp
Q4·56.4
RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
TOR 92·CHA 92
+6pp
Q4·56.4
Kon Knueppel shooting foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 91·CHA 92
−19pp
Q4·56.4
RJ Barrett makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
TOR 91·CHA 92
−10pp
Q4·1:08
Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound
TOR 89·CHA 92
−2pp
Q4·1:11
LaMelo Ball misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
TOR 89·CHA 92
−6pp
Q4·1:26
Kon Knueppel defensive rebound
TOR 89·CHA 92
+2pp
Q4·1:30
Scottie Barnes misses 6-foot two point shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 89·CHA 92
+7pp
Q4·1:48
Scottie Barnes enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 89·CHA 92
Q4·1:48
LaMelo Ball enters the game for PJ Hall
·
TOR 89·CHA 92
Q4·1:48
Moussa Diabate enters the game for Collin Sexton
·
TOR 89·CHA 92
Q4·1:48
Raptors Full timeout
TOR 89·CHA 92
Q4·1:48
Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound
TOR 89·CHA 92
−2pp
Q4·1:50
Kon Knueppel misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 89·CHA 92
−5pp
Q4·2:09
Sion James defensive rebound
TOR 89·CHA 92
+2pp
Q4·2:12
Immanuel Quickley misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
TOR 89·CHA 92
+6pp
Q4·2:31
Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 89·CHA 92
+16pp
Q4·2:34
Miles Bridges offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 89·CHA 89
+7pp
Q4·2:36
Kon Knueppel misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
TOR 89·CHA 89
−7pp

Betting line

TOR -2.5·O/U 229.5·TOR -135/CHA +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oronto Raptors went into Charlotte Hornets and beat them, 97–96. It came down to the final possession.

CHA +2.5 cashed (TOR won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 229.5 by 36.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
LaMelo BallMIN · G
USG%31.397
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR · F
DEFL3.195
Moussa DiabateCHA · F
CONT7.794

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

CHA

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.0%

48.1%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

115.8

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.2

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR