Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL+3TEX

TEX

9-8

8-9

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

3,743 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Chris PaddackTEX
3.1± 2.4low
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

.712

OPS

◀

.718

.664

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.298

4.05

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.89

3.96

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 4 · SD 1 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.125	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. PedersonDH	.211	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. McCutchenDH	.333	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. CarterCF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. HaggertyLF	.348	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DuranSS	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. CanhaLF	.318	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. Wade2B	.550	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. MacIverC	.143	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. CauleySS	.344	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Pratto1B	.143	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Q. ScottRF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. MartinezOF	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Pollard2B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. SniderLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MartinSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HerreraC	.273	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		32	4	6	4	0	5	4

Player

.125

.211

.333

.250

.348

.250

.318

.550

.143

.344

.143

.167

.176

.280

.000

.200

.333

.273

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SupakSP	2.1	1	0	0	0	0	40
T. AlexanderRP	1.2	0	0	0	2	1	33
C. BaumlerRP	2.0	2	1	0	0	0	32
J. SborzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
P. GrayRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
A. AndersonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17
Team	9.0	4	1	0	2	3	147

Player

2.1

1.2

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MerrillCF	.296	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Cronenworth2B	.375	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
N. CastellanosRF	.280	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. France1B	.370	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.321	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.167	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. McCoy2B	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BowenRF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Mondou2B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.278	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. JacksonUN	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
C. RodríguezRF	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. VilarC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. ReyesOF	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	1	4	0	0	2	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	4.0	3	2	2	2	2	63
L. GutierrezSP	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	36
D. MorganRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	10
J. EstradaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21
A. MorejonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	22
Team	9.0	6	4	4	5	4	152

Team

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs TEX.