Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL+4CLE

CLE

9-8-1

6-9-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

4,398 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 3.1high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

.677

OPS

.718

▶

.707

.312

OBP

.319

▶

.316

3.93

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.20

3.77

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 6 · KC 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	2	0	3	1	0	0	0	6
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.286	3	2	2	4	2	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.333	2	1	1	1	1	1	0
J. Ramirez3B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.143	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. AriasSS	.313	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. ValeraLF	.292	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Hoskins1B	.211	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
A. HedgesC	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.350	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezRF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
G. HoweSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. MooneySS	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. SchubartOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Fernandez2B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. ChourioCF	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. IngleC	.125	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. FoxCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	6	9	6	3	4	7

Player

.286

.333

.250

.143

.313

.292

.211

.250

.350

.250

.000

.300

.000

.000

.375

.125

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	4.2	2	0	0	1	4	66
W. DionSP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	12
C. BrogdonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	17
C. HeuerRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	18
K. AllardRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	0	18
Team	9.0	10	2	2	1	7	131

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. India2B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. ThomasCF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Drury2B	.211	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. Newman3B	.280	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Rojas3B	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.857	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. WatersLF	.235	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.294	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Johnson2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MartinRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. DickersonSS	.800	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PinedaSS	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SquiresOF	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. CrossRF	.316	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.300	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. BrownC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GentryRF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	2	10	2	1	1	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. BergertSP	3.0	3	2	2	1	2	47
L. ErcegRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
N. MearsRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	27
E. MorganRP	1.2	3	1	1	0	3	28
S. CruzRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	12
J. CuasRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	29
Team	9.0	9	6	6	4	7	157

Team

CLE

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs CLE.