St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL+7HOU

STL

9-6-1

310

HOU

5-8-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,413 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

HOU

.717

OPS

.718

.724

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.47

Runs / G

4.50

4.46

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.75

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

STL 3 · HOU 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3
HOU	0	0	1	4	0	0	1	4	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. ChurchLF	.235	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
J. FerminLF	.160	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Gorman3B	.136	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. WalkerRF	.217	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
N. VelazquezLF	.333	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
B. Jordan3B	.043	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RivasSS	.278	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. YerzyC	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Moore2B	.150	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
R. MitchellSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. PinoCF	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. Ortiz3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SuarezRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Gurevitch1B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. McGee3B	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Je. BaezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. LinarezC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. WeingartnerSS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	3	5	2	0	7	13

Player

.235

.160

.136

.217

.333

.043

.278

.200

.150

.000

.500

.000

.000

.143

.600

.000

.000

.400

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. FittsSP	2.2	6	4	4	0	3	63
M. WatsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
H. HayesP	0.2	1	1	1	3	0	27
J. RamirezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. RajcicRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
S. HalesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
B. ZimmermannRP	1.1	6	5	5	0	2	38
J. DavilaP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	9
Team	8.0	14	10	10	3	9	168

Player

2.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.2

Team

8.0

168

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TrammellCF	.318	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
I. Paredes3B	.200	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
Z. ColeLF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
C. CorreaSS	.222	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.261	4	1	2	3	1	0	1
J. MeyersCF	.133	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
CJ Alexander1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SalazarC	.200	2	2	1	0	0	1	0
L. SpenceOF	.176	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. Nelson3B	.300	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
W. JanekC	.455	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. Ferreras2B	.111	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. GarciaC	.091	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CallUN	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. PowellSS	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PriceC	.214	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. RamirezSS	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		38	10	14	10	1	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JavierSP	1.2	1	2	1	3	3	52
A. MaldonadoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
P. LambertSP	3.0	2	0	0	2	2	52
R. WeissRP	3.0	2	1	1	1	6	48
J. MurrayRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	27
Team	9.0	5	3	2	7	13	184

Team

STL

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs STL.