Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL+2BOS

PHI

5-10-1

BOS

8-8

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,604 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Tsung-Che ChengBOS
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.1± 2.1medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

BOS

.705

OPS

.718

.699

.302

OBP

.319

▶

.312

4.41

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

4.15

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.69

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

9.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

PHI 3 · BOS 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3
BOS	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RojasCF	.143	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
O. KempLF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. PegueroSS	.125	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.200	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. CrawfordCF	.207	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RodriguezSS	.286	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. Anthony1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RinconSS	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CairoSS	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeMartiniSS	.133	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Escobar2B	.118	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. HettigerC	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. ReyesLF	.316	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. McIntoshC	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MurrLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RickettsC	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. FergusLF	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	6	1	0	3	7

Player

.143

.250

.250

.125

.200

.207

.286

.000

.250

.125

.176

.133

.118

.222

.316

.375

.333

.333

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WilsonRP	3.0	6	4	4	3	3	56
Z. PopRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	12
C. ShugartRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	23
S. JohnsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
N. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
A. WallingRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	19
Team	8.0	11	5	5	7	10	136

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

136

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Campbell2B	.192	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. StorySS	.391	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
M. Mayer2B	.231	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. Durbin3B	.278	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. NarvaezC	.375	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
A. MonasterioSS	.389	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
N. Sogard3B	.103	3	1	1	3	1	0	1
B. WardCF	.464	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. CastroCF	.320	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
T. McDonoughOF	.238	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Ferguson2B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. AzocarCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. JacksonOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RomeroSS	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
V. Capra3B	.056	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. HickeyC	.143	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	5	11	5	1	7	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CrochetSP	4.2	5	3	3	0	2	59
Z. KellyRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
R. WatsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	24
T. SamaniegoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
S. MartinezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	21
T. GuerreroRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	22
Team	9.0	6	3	3	3	7	145

Team

PHI

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs PHI.