Minnesota Twins vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL+1ATL

MIN

4-11-1

ATL

11-3-2

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

ATL

.733

OPS

◀

.718

.720

.321

OBP

◀

.319

.311

4.81

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

4.84

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

MIN 8 · ATL 9 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	1	3	8
ATL	8	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.200	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
R. Lewis3B	.214	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.360	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.333	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. GraySS	.238	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. ArciaSS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Rucker2B	.143	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. CulpepperSS	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. GonzalezRF	.500	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
A. Sabato1B	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RosarioRF	.444	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. RodriguezCF	.421	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.071	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Schobel2B	.200	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. CardenasC	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	8	11	8	5	0	12

Player

.200

.214

.360

.333

.231

.250

.238

.222

.100

.143

.250

.500

.167

.444

.421

.071

.200

.273

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. MatthewsSP	3.2	6	6	6	2	5	69
I. RomeroRP	0.1	3	2	2	0	0	20
L. HendriksRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	21
A. MorrisRP	2.1	1	0	0	1	2	62
G. HartwigRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	6
Team	8.0	12	9	9	4	8	178

Player

3.2

0.1

1.0

2.1

0.2

Team

8.0

178

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MateoSS	.174	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.300	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
M. Olson1B	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.400	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.474	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
E. WhiteRF	.364	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.389	3	2	1	2	0	0	1
J. HeimC	.167	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
M. DubonSS	.368	3	1	2	3	0	0	0
A. TavarezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Ogans3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. Verdung2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gil3B	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. GuanipaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.217	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AzocarRF	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BrookmanC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Wisely2B	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	9	12	9	0	4	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrascoRP	2.2	4	4	4	0	3	55
B. EnlowSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
R. SuarezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	13
A. BummerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
D. DoddRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	28
H. HarrisRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	21
T. BuchananRP	0.2	4	3	3	0	1	19
A. MaierP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	9.0	11	8	8	0	12	155

Team

MIN

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs MIN.