Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 9, 2026

FINAL+1ARI

SEA

4-12-1

ARI

8-9

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

11,944 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.8high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.6± 1.4high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

SEA

league avg

ARI

.695

OPS

.718

.692

.313

OBP

◀

.319

.307

4.02

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.22

3.72

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.33

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

SEA 1 · ARI 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SEA	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.500	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.190	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. RaleyRF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. GarverC	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J.P. CrawfordSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. RoblesRF	.095	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JoeRF	.292	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. Bliss2B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. ThomasLF	.381	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
Wi. Wilson3B	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. MontesRF	.095	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FarmeloOF	.217	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeredaC	.100	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. SanchezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. O'KeefeC	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Emerson3B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. PackardOF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rivas3B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	5	1	0	3	10

Player

.500

.190

.286

.222

.000

.095

.292

.143

.381

.300

.095

.217

.100

.000

.167

.200

.333

.222

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WooSP	4.0	3	1	1	0	4	50
A. HoppeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
D. GonzalezSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
N. DavilaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
B. CastanoRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	0	21
T. ClevelandUN	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	16
Team	8.2	7	2	2	2	8	130

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.1

Team

8.2

130

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. Vargas1B	.308	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BarrosaCF	.217	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
G. MorenoC	.192	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. SmithDH	.308	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
A.J. VukovichCF	.115	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rojas2B	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CrisantesSS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
I. Melendez3B	.182	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. OrtizOF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GarciaC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RobertsOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Walters2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. BenuaCF	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. Serretti3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. CatuyCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. RodriguezSS	.250	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. Counsell2B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. McLaughlin3B	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	7	2	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. GallenSP	3.0	0	0	0	0	3	41
J. MorilloRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	26
A. HoffmannRP	1.2	3	1	1	1	2	32
T. MendezRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	10
G. CarrilloSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	6
C. AndersonSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
Team	9.0	5	1	1	3	10	138

Team

SEA

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs SEA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs SEA.