Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+4TEX

COL

1-2

TEX

2-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

4,539 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Jake McCarthyCOL
1.4± 0.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.5± 2.2high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.3± 4.0high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high

RBIs

Jake BurgerTEX
0.9± 1.1high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.7high
Jake McCarthyCOL
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL
3.2± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

TEX

.741

OPS

◀

.718

.711

.325

OBP

◀

.319

4.64

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

5.53

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.94

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

COL 5 · TEX 9 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	5
TEX	0	2	0	2	3	2	0	0	9

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. Julien2B	.167	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. SullivanC	.250	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. McCarthyCF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BeckLF	.500	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Karros3B	.600	3	2	3	1	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. VeenLF	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
S. ThompsonRF	.333	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
R. Riggio2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. FulfordDH	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. HillRF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. MontgomeryCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CordovaC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Messinger3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Kent2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Z. Kokoska1B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MessinaC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	5	10	5	0	4	7

Player

.167

.250

.200

.500

.000

.600

.000

.200

.333

.000

.250

.500

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HergetRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	--
V. VodnikRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	--
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
P. MushinskiRP	0.2	3	5	5	3	2	--
S. WeatherlySP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	--
E. ShawverRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	--
W. HerreraRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	--
M. ProseckyRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	--
Team	8.0	9	9	9	11	7	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CarterCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. SeagerSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PedersonDH	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. Jung3B	.500	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Smith2B	.667	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
K. HigashiokaC	.500	0	0	0	1	0	1	0
A. OsunaLF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
M. HelmanCF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. SniderLF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. CauleySS	.429	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
W. MacIverC	.333	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
C. JohnsonC	.200	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
R. MartinSS	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
F. Chavez2B	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	2
J. Bride3B	.333	2	0	1	3	0	0	0
Q. ScottRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. MartinezOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		27	9	9	8	0	11	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	1.2	3	2	2	0	0	--
B. MagdalenoP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
R. BrasierRP	0.2	4	3	3	0	0	--
T. IrelandRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	--
L. LopezSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	--
R. AhlstromRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
R. LobusP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
E. LoomisRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	--
A. RobertsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Team	9.0	10	5	5	4	7	0

Team

COL

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs COL.